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 Post subject: Push Pull and Jump
 Post Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:57 am 
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Joined: Apr 26, 2010
Posts: 3895
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Updated Thu Jan 2, 2020 at EOD
PUSH 9.01 (back up 0.01)
PULL 7.32 (up 0.12)
JUMP 0.52 (down 0.28, and its 5th day down)
For chart visuals the TSP Fund lines are getting a reset, starting the new near. They will be YTD + 10.
Image
Image
More about Jump
I have been trying to get a system out of Put/Call ratios for a while now. You can Google it, “CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio”. It is another way of looking at buying and selling. But with a heavy lean toward fear and greed, which is a contrarian indicator, moving opposite to market prices.
On the chart below, the CPOE is red dashed line, with the SP500, green line. And yeah, it stays in a constant state of nervousness. Hence the name, "Junp". And as you can see. there were big spikes occurring at bottoms. Its like they are saying the bottom is in or nearly there.
Image

So I wasn’t happy with that alone, so I tried to smooth things out. I tried a simple 20-day moving average. Still has too much of the jitters to see a good system.

Next I tried a triple exponentially smoothed moving average, a fancy way of saying each average is an average of the prior average. That smoothed it out to create a line with some value.
And reversing the numbers added visual suitability too.

OK, how do you use it? Well it’s not going to be the holy grail of systems. The indicator has its flaws, (I will show some later) but it is able to provide gains and some RFMM (Relief From Market Madness).
As with the PUSH and PULL, it’s a wavy line, but this one has a signal line (bold black line at (0).
And a cross of that zero line (don’t hold me to this), to the upside generates a buy signal. Conversely, a cross below the zero line generates a sell signal. So look and watch for movement toward the zero line, and be ready to "Jump" when it gets there. Now, this does not mean that you can't anticipate and judge a cross coming, but that for another post.
Over the weekend I will work-up and present some backtesting results.

_________________
Trading decisions require consideration of multiple pieces of data. Judging where the greater weight lies, and then balancing the offense and defense. It becomes more of a filtering method rather than a strict decision making tool.


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AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)

S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)

DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)

EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)