What is moving the markets

[TSPsmart]

Here is a partial list of what is moving the overall markets - liquidity, no liquidity, liquidity.



Someone asked what caused the market to crash in March. The credit markets froze up, people needed cash to cover margins, debt payments, etc. There was a dollar shortage overseas and the only way the overseas investors and consumers could raise US dollars was to sell US assets.

Then in April the Fed extended dollar swaps to other central banks and the dollar shortage was covered and foreign investors could move back into their US positions.

Consider the Fed printed more money in 3 months in 2020 than it did from 2008-2014 ($3 trillion). In 3 months!

Corporate buybacks have dried up (except Apple), dividends are being cut. One should not ask why the stock market crashed. One should be asking why the market is back up.

There is only one reason today.

Be careful. The market is getting real stupid - drunk on central bank liquidity.

[bloobs]

Excellent analysis TSPSmart. I have been scouring the net for a such a chart that maps the **** true **** market drivers for the stock market moves. Not the fluff drivel that we read fro Cnbc, foxbusiness, marketwatch, and even bloomberg.

Were you able to grab Fed reserve datasets to confirm these?

I noticed that the markets been sideways the last 6 weeks since the Fed practically stopped buying. Ay predictions?

[bosco7]

Bingo, all the tea leaf reading chartism has never quite nicely matched the trillions of our eventual debt the fed pours into supporting mark to market. Without the fed there is no market. Plan accordingly.

[dougellen1]

bloobs is so ridiculously liberal he can't be taken seriously

[Tomanyiron]

Thanks for you version "hindsight 20/20" chart. "Who Knew, and When Did They Know It?"

I'm guessing you believe G or F funds are where to be now?

This may sound disrespectful, but I have to ask something, (people give me a hard time about my charts, and force me to enplane). So why you never post anything bullish? When the market makes gains, does it catch you by surprise? Have you moved to stocks in time to benefit? What's your percent this year? I wished there was a way to see how you strategy has done, (not a hindsight version). I know, if I send you $75 and you will tell me.
https://tspsmart.com/Join-Now

I don't like all the fed manipulations either. And I know the market is very complicated. But isn't a lot of it non-sinister and just plain old ebb and flow?

[bloobs]

bloobs is so ridiculously liberal he can't be taken seriously

You're just ridiculous.

[Bubba]

bloobs is so ridiculously liberal he can't be taken seriously

You're just ridiculous.

I saw him once go on and on about how this other guy on the board was a communist because he liked the Democrats above the GOP. His idea is plain and simple, vote GOP or you're not American. There's no discussion with that type of thinking. No learning on both sides etc. Shame really, since I think we can learn from each other...oh well...I guess we'll continue screaming at each other until the Russians can't ruin us on Facebook anymore...

[ubascuba]

Thanks for you version "hindsight 20/20" chart. "Who Knew, and When Did They Know It?"

I'm guessing you believe G or F funds are where to be now?

This may sound disrespectful, but I have to ask something, (people give me a hard time about my charts, and force me to enplane). So why you never post anything bullish? When the market makes gains, does it catch you by surprise? Have you moved to stocks in time to benefit? What's your percent this year? I wished there was a way to see how you strategy has done, (not a hindsight version). I know, if I send you $75 and you will tell me.
https://tspsmart.com/Join-Now

I don't like all the fed manipulations either. And I know the market is very complicated. But isn't a lot of it non-sinister and just plain old ebb and flow?

I paid his fee for a year an it was terrible advice. I missed out on a lot of gains that year because of his extremely bearish advice. I would stay away. FAR AWAY.

[jackwad]

Thoughts on consumer spending being driven by the CARE act which btw expires this month and it's impact on the market?

Some quick numbers, median individual income in the US is around $32k. If you're unemployed right now you're making the equivalent of around $47k. As we know people spend all the money they get. Personal income and disposable income were down 4-5% in may but consumption was up 8%. So what happens in August when the typical unemployment payment will be the equivalent of around $16k per year?

[TSPsmart]

Aside from the Fed's massive interventions we still have seasonals.

My almanacs show the Friday of Options Expirations in July begins the weakest period of the stock market of the year. That would be tomorrow.

So watch out tomorrow and next week.

As for market timing, I do not directly support speculation in the market. I focus on retirement accounts for long-term investors in order to avoid high risk markets. You can still use my website's market commentary and email warnings for trading if you want to surf the Fed's liquidity operations. And my almanacs if you are a seasonal trader.