Is it safe?

General TSP Discussion.

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Chulke
Posts: 420
Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 10:25 am

Is it safe?

Post by Chulke »

I dabbled this last couple months with a custom allocation mix for the end of June and all of last month (July) and did pretty well tacking on nearly 7% to my TSP. I have nearly caught back up to my highest balance of this year (pre COVID breakdown madness) through my contributions and earnings...so now my question is....Is it safe to resume my original chosen strategy or do I play it by ear?...(ie loosely play my strategy but keep a closer eye for turmoil that'll break our TSP accounts down again)

I know...no one knows for certain, but I suspect the election coming up is either going to take us higher or lower depending on who wins.

I also know August is not a relatively good month for the markets or I should say not an easy month to ride out in the miserable, low action F fund, but I'd rather be safe than sorry at this point choosing not to unravel everything I've worked so hard to build back up.

Thoughts?



Cheers!
Cheers!

Current Strat: Loosely following 152300 and 85660 more the former rather than the later
Current PIP: 24.04

soccermoth
Posts: 26
Joined: Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:09 am

Re: Is it safe?

Post by soccermoth »

I'm in the same boat. Part of me is screaming don't be greedy.... the huge loss from March in my account has been recovered and it feels like I am gambling not investing at this point.
It is interesting you mention the F fund. I've ignored F thinking G was the safe space. But maybe F is the compromise- could still share a small gain if the economy recovers, with relatively much less risk of drastic losses if the market tumbles again?

Chulke
Posts: 420
Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 10:25 am

Re: Is it safe?

Post by Chulke »

I feel that for sure...It definitely feels more like gambling than investing at this point! one thing is for certain though....it ain't easy!!


Cheers!
Cheers!

Current Strat: Loosely following 152300 and 85660 more the former rather than the later
Current PIP: 24.04

Jones44
Posts: 33
Joined: Tue May 02, 2017 9:41 pm

Re: Is it safe?

Post by Jones44 »

Market seems almost immune to bad news but jumps with any sliver of good news. I'm stuck hiding in F playing the "risk vs reward" game. Seems like the bottom could fall out any day, but it just keeps on ticking up.

sigtau88
Posts: 6
Joined: Sun Nov 23, 2014 12:52 am

Re: Is it safe?

Post by sigtau88 »

I don't see how fear can be replicated the way that it was this spring. Unemployment seems certain, but the spikes of claims seems also highly unlikely to reach the rates we saw at that time.

Many people thought stocks were overpriced before we started printing money. :-)

ProduceMan
Posts: 573
Joined: Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:01 pm

Re: Is it safe?

Post by ProduceMan »

Chulke wrote:I dabbled this last couple months with a custom allocation mix for the end of June and all of last month (July) and did pretty well tacking on nearly 7% to my TSP. I have nearly caught back up to my highest balance of this year (pre COVID breakdown madness) through my contributions and earnings...so now my question is....Is it safe to resume my original chosen strategy or do I play it by ear?...(ie loosely play my strategy but keep a closer eye for turmoil that'll break our TSP accounts down again)

Cheers!

Just my opinion, my 2 cents, my point of view, and or food for thought.

Your gain or losses are just that ...... gains or losses from your starting point, which are your contributions. Maybe the contributions are your principle balance. You should not combine your gains/loss and contributions.

The gains/loss should be viewed as your performance report card for your contributions.

Just like your principle on your house or car loans. Your contributions is your principle, but a running principle.
Moneys’ Money Making Money (4M)

TSPBuilder
Posts: 259
Joined: Tue Jun 19, 2012 2:14 pm

Re: Is it safe?

Post by TSPBuilder »

Jones44 wrote:Market seems almost immune to bad news but jumps with any sliver of good news. I'm stuck hiding in F playing the "risk vs reward" game. Seems like the bottom could fall out any day, but it just keeps on ticking up.
Jones44,

TSPCalc Strategy 85660 shows there is a high correlation/proof that the market is immune to individual events that are not historical in nature. I have been loosely tracking it and two other strategies since Oct. 2019 and that has been my experience. I am amazed at how COVID coincided with going into and out of G Feb/Mar.

T

TSPBuilder
Posts: 259
Joined: Tue Jun 19, 2012 2:14 pm

Re: Is it safe?

Post by TSPBuilder »

Chulke wrote:I dabbled this last couple months with a custom allocation mix for the end of June and all of last month (July) and did pretty well tacking on nearly 7% to my TSP. I have nearly caught back up to my highest balance of this year (pre COVID breakdown madness) through my contributions and earnings...so now my question is....Is it safe to resume my original chosen strategy or do I play it by ear?...(ie loosely play my strategy but keep a closer eye for turmoil that'll break our TSP accounts down again)

I know...no one knows for certain, but I suspect the election coming up is either going to take us higher or lower depending on who wins.

I also know August is not a relatively good month for the markets or I should say not an easy month to ride out in the miserable, low action F fund, but I'd rather be safe than sorry at this point choosing not to unravel everything I've worked so hard to build back up.

Thoughts?



Cheers!

Chulke,

I have developed a high confidence in TSPCalc Strategy 85660 to keep me out of trouble and my money safely making a very reasonable return. The only advantage I have found to pursue independently investing outside the strategy and the TSP (ProFunds inverse 2x indexes) is moments of prolonged momentum like in Feb/Mar. Good luck with your choice!

T

User avatar
Bosch
Posts: 11
Joined: Thu Jun 15, 2017 6:44 pm

Re: Is it safe?

Post by Bosch »


Chulke
Posts: 420
Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 10:25 am

Re: Is it safe?

Post by Chulke »

I can see the safety in 85660! and still a pretty impressive return...Definitely something for me to consider and watch closer!


Thanks!
Cheers!

Current Strat: Loosely following 152300 and 85660 more the former rather than the later
Current PIP: 24.04

Thunder7ga
Posts: 3
Joined: Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:57 pm

Re: Is it safe?

Post by Thunder7ga »

TSPBuilder wrote: I have developed a high confidence in TSPCalc Strategy 85660 to keep me out of trouble and my money safely making a very reasonable return.
T
Very interesting strat, follows most of the ideology I like as well, will have to add for consideration when I plan out my monthly moves.

Mawmawkids
Posts: 1
Joined: Sun Jun 21, 2020 6:03 pm

Re: Is it safe?

Post by Mawmawkids »

What is 85660?

anomadtoo
Posts: 61
Joined: Thu Jun 13, 2013 10:23 am

Re: Is it safe?

Post by anomadtoo »

Mawmawkids wrote:What is 85660?
an investment strategy on tspcalc; which is a website many use to support their moves on this site and their real tsp.

TSPBuilder
Posts: 259
Joined: Tue Jun 19, 2012 2:14 pm

Re: Is it safe?

Post by TSPBuilder »

Chulke wrote:I can see the safety in 85660! and still a pretty impressive return...Definitely something for me to consider and watch closer!


Thanks!
You are most welcome, Chulke. Fordest shared it back in November or December of last year with the group and had a great write-up on it. Feel free to share it with others and the wealth!

TSPBuilder
Posts: 259
Joined: Tue Jun 19, 2012 2:14 pm

Re: Is it safe?

Post by TSPBuilder »

Thunder7ga wrote:
TSPBuilder wrote: I have developed a high confidence in TSPCalc Strategy 85660 to keep me out of trouble and my money safely making a very reasonable return.
T
Very interesting strat, follows most of the ideology I like as well, will have to add for consideration when I plan out my monthly moves.
Thunder7ga,
It's done solid by me and I hope it will do so for you. Let us know if you find something even better. good luck! T

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