You win the internet today Jay.jlozano042 wrote:
But I digress. My TSP goal is very simple. A minimum of 15% annual returns for 10 years. Got there 3 months ago for 2020. For 2019, it took same amount of time to reach. After that, every extra percentage point is just gravy (or cherry on top of a sundae). Why not aim higher? Because I am a calculating and reasonable person (e.g. I balance greed against fear) and only set goals that have a good chance of being achieved.
Yeah I always used those numbers behind my name .... I really wish I could change my account name ... it's nothing cool and fancy.
To be honest - no goals here when it comes to TSP as of right now .. at least nothing I set in stone. Literally, just staying in place until the wheels fall off.
I have made this goal 3 out of 6 years. I wish I would have started this 20 years ago. I was to conservative in my 40s, averaged about 5% a year from 95-11, I listened to the old guys, they were on CSRS, they did not need TSP in retirement.
ProduceMan wrote: Blooms 15%, I like that. Did you pick 15 because it’s a tad higher than 1% per month?
So Bloobs, since you reached your goal so early, are you going to be safer the rest of the year?
1. I picked 15% percent because that annual return would result in me hitting my target TSP balance after 10 years (when I hit my MRA).
2. When I hit that 15% minimum, my risk appetite decreases so I reserve the option of reducing my exposure to C, S, I (or F) funds, which I've done. I may get off the bench if the Risk/Reward ratio becomes attractive enough though. This was the case last year when I ended up with 29%.
Your goal (amount and timeline) is crystal clear--but what figures are you relying on to confirm you remain "on track"?Diva wrote:I never had a PIP percentage goal. My only goal for my TSP is $1.5M at retirement. Right now I'm on track to meet that goal in the 7 years I have left to work.
Another problem is, so it’s nearing the end of the month and you are a little under, what can you do? Try harder? Even when the market is in a down trend?
Trying to bet the Year to Date of the C or S funds, would be a realistic goal.
If I were to put a number on it, I might say capture 75% of the market’s up-cycles. And avoid most (75% about) of the down cycles.
MJ's TSPCalc seasonal investment data says otherwise, at least for up to the past 15 years.Tomanyiron wrote:I don’t put a percent (per month or year) on it. The market future is so unknown, and no fund may have a gain equal to your goal.
Short answer: Yes. How? See MJ.Tomanyiron wrote:Another problem is, so it’s nearing the end of the month and you are a little under, what can you do? Try harder?
It's a decent simple goal. The problem with this approach is that you then cannot predict if your gonna hit your TSP balance goal in [X] number of years.Tomanyiron wrote:Trying to bet the Year to Date of the C or S funds, would be a realistic goal.
How exactly would you identify this metric then, and more importantly, how would you apply it to your advantage? Seems like the juice may not be worth the squeeze.Tomanyiron wrote:If I were to put a number on it, I might say capture 75% of the market’s up-cycles. And avoid most (75% about) of the down cycles.
I'm currently at $120k. If I earn 7% a year, I'll be in $700k range. Thus, making at least 7% a year is my goal. Anything beyond that is gravy.
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus
MJ's TSPCalc seasonal investment data is history, not future.
You can't make the market do what you want it to do. It could take a nose dive this afternoon, and even your F doesn't do well the rest of the year. How is trying harder going to "squeeze blood from a turnip"?