What’s your goal?

General TSP Discussion.

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ProduceMan
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What’s your goal?

Post by ProduceMan »

I have had many goals, like.....

1% per month

Get at least the same amount as my 5%
match

Maybe another new goal is 5% per quarter.

What’s y’all’s?
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jlozano042
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Re: What’s your goal?

Post by jlozano042 »

Image

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bloobs
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Re: What’s your goal?

Post by bloobs »

jlozano042 wrote:Image
You win the internet today Jay.

But I digress. My TSP goal is very simple. A minimum of 15% annual returns for 10 years. Got there 3 months ago for 2020. For 2019, it took same amount of time to reach. After that, every extra percentage point is just gravy (or cherry on top of a sundae). Why not aim higher? Because I am a calculating and reasonable person (e.g. I balance greed against fear) and only set goals that have a good chance of being achieved.

ProduceMan
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Re: What’s your goal?

Post by ProduceMan »

Really, ....... really Jlozano L, really. Did you always have 042 at the end of your name?
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jlozano042
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Re: What’s your goal?

Post by jlozano042 »

Hahahahaha - sorry gents and ladies. Thanks bloobs and thanks ProduceMan for your comments. I wasn't trying to hijack your thread ProduceMan so my apologies.

Yeah I always used those numbers behind my name .... I really wish I could change my account name ... it's nothing cool and fancy.

To be honest - no goals here when it comes to TSP as of right now .. at least nothing I set in stone. Literally, just staying in place until the wheels fall off.

ProduceMan
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Re: What’s your goal?

Post by ProduceMan »

LOL Jlozano, no apologies necessary, just happy for the quick response.

Blooms 15%, I like that. Did you pick 15 because it’s a tad higher than 1% per month?
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ProduceMan
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Re: What’s your goal?

Post by ProduceMan »

So Bloobs, since you reached your goal so early, are you going to be safer the rest of the year?
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scotth2010
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Re: What’s your goal?

Post by scotth2010 »

Beat C & S, with only using 50% invested into CS at any given time. Yes I am over 60.
I have made this goal 3 out of 6 years. I wish I would have started this 20 years ago. I was to conservative in my 40s, averaged about 5% a year from 95-11, I listened to the old guys, they were on CSRS, they did not need TSP in retirement.

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bloobs
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Re: What’s your goal?

Post by bloobs »

ProduceMan wrote: Blooms 15%, I like that. Did you pick 15 because it’s a tad higher than 1% per month?
....
So Bloobs, since you reached your goal so early, are you going to be safer the rest of the year?

1. I picked 15% percent because that annual return would result in me hitting my target TSP balance after 10 years (when I hit my MRA).

2. When I hit that 15% minimum, my risk appetite decreases so I reserve the option of reducing my exposure to C, S, I (or F) funds, which I've done. I may get off the bench if the Risk/Reward ratio becomes attractive enough though. This was the case last year when I ended up with 29%.
Last edited by bloobs on Fri Aug 21, 2020 11:20 am, edited 1 time in total.

Diva
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Re: What’s your goal?

Post by Diva »

I never had a PIP percentage goal. My only goal for my TSP is $1.5M at retirement. Right now I'm on track to meet that goal in the 7 years I have left to work.

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bloobs
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Re: What’s your goal?

Post by bloobs »

Diva wrote:I never had a PIP percentage goal. My only goal for my TSP is $1.5M at retirement. Right now I'm on track to meet that goal in the 7 years I have left to work.
Your goal (amount and timeline) is crystal clear--but what figures are you relying on to confirm you remain "on track"?

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Tomanyiron
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Re: What’s your goal?

Post by Tomanyiron »

I don’t put a percent (per month or year) on it. The market future is so unknown, and no fund may have a gain equal to your goal.
Another problem is, so it’s nearing the end of the month and you are a little under, what can you do? Try harder? Even when the market is in a down trend?
Trying to bet the Year to Date of the C or S funds, would be a realistic goal.
If I were to put a number on it, I might say capture 75% of the market’s up-cycles. And avoid most (75% about) of the down cycles.

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bloobs
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Re: What’s your goal?

Post by bloobs »

Tomanyiron wrote:I don’t put a percent (per month or year) on it. The market future is so unknown, and no fund may have a gain equal to your goal.
MJ's TSPCalc seasonal investment data says otherwise, at least for up to the past 15 years.

Tomanyiron wrote:Another problem is, so it’s nearing the end of the month and you are a little under, what can you do? Try harder?
Short answer: Yes. How? See MJ.
Tomanyiron wrote:Trying to bet the Year to Date of the C or S funds, would be a realistic goal.
It's a decent simple goal. The problem with this approach is that you then cannot predict if your gonna hit your TSP balance goal in [X] number of years.

Tomanyiron wrote:If I were to put a number on it, I might say capture 75% of the market’s up-cycles. And avoid most (75% about) of the down cycles.
How exactly would you identify this metric then, and more importantly, how would you apply it to your advantage? Seems like the juice may not be worth the squeeze.

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Aitrus
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Re: What’s your goal?

Post by Aitrus »

Because I will have multiple pensions coming my way and low cost of living, TSP will be more of a bridge and financial bulwark / inheritance for the kids than a main source of income. My goal is to have at least $600k in my account within the next 17 years to retire at my MRA.

I'm currently at $120k. If I earn 7% a year, I'll be in $700k range. Thus, making at least 7% a year is my goal. Anything beyond that is gravy.
Seasonal Musings 2021: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=18757
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Tomanyiron
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Re: What’s your goal?

Post by Tomanyiron »

bloobs, I guess you are in a contrary mood today?
MJ's TSPCalc seasonal investment data is history, not future.
You can't make the market do what you want it to do. It could take a nose dive this afternoon, and even your F doesn't do well the rest of the year. How is trying harder going to "squeeze blood from a turnip"?

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Fund Prices2021-07-27

FundPriceDayYTD
G $16.63 0.00% 0.76%
F $21.11 0.24% -0.42%
C $66.04 -0.47% 18.12%
S $83.84 -0.93% 12.99%
I $38.76 -0.09% 9.52%
L2065 $14.18 -0.40% 14.24%
L2060 $14.18 -0.40% 14.24%
L2055 $14.18 -0.40% 14.24%
L2050 $28.84 -0.31% 11.74%
L2045 $13.16 -0.29% 11.05%
L2040 $48.00 -0.27% 10.38%
L2035 $12.68 -0.24% 9.59%
L2030 $42.19 -0.22% 8.80%
L2025 $11.94 -0.16% 7.01%
Linc $23.11 -0.07% 3.73%

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