Greed and Fear

[VAmanBulls]

What happens when crazy momentum dies? The reality of valuation takes over and boy were we overvalued. Some way more than others, Tesla would be the extreme. Side note, I decided to follow 101282 for September forward in my fantasy account, it was in the S fund until 9/16, not liking that move so far. So what should we do now if you're in the S or C? Well support levels were tested for the Dow at 27,500 and held, so far bouncing today. The NASDAQ tested the 50 day moving average and bouncing. Same with S&P, support around 3,335 and bouncing. Small Cap index is at risk of breaking it's support, however. I think this was a correction in a continued bull market. But we'll see a lot of volatility. Microsoft looks like a deal right now to me. Also tracking NKLA who joined up with GM. Check out Snowflake too, could be a big winner when it rolls out. We are in waters that's not recommended for those prone to sea sickness. But the future is really bright in my view. Stay motivated and have fun out there. Ride that Bull!

[md2018]

At what point does the fear of a Biden Presidency and higher taxes start to take hold in the stock market? Is everyone getting jumpy right now as the election closes in? I read an article that gave evidence that in the 2 month lead up to the election a downturn usually signals the loss of the incumbent president. I am not for either/or just want to make money and not loose it.

[Regularguy]

Will you be in G fund on November 1.

[stilljammi]

At what point does the fear of a Biden Presidency and higher taxes start to take hold in the stock market? Is everyone getting jumpy right now as the election closes in? I read an article that gave evidence that in the 2 month lead up to the election a downturn usually signals the loss of the incumbent president. I am not for either/or just want to make money and not loose it.

Well, the last time an incumbent lost was the early 90s, so not a lot of data points to test that theory. I think this has more to do with the fact that the market has been propped up the whole time while the rest of the economy burns.

I'm still long Tesla, although I sold half my shares right after the split. Anytime a stock goes up by double-digit percentage points just because of a stock split, you know it's going to be yanked back. That was definitely greed.

I don't see the point of NKLA...are they just trying to get bought by GM or some other car company? They haven't made any products and they won't be catching up to Tesla. Tesla is pretty well vertically integrated and they're just starting to get their balance sheet in order, which is amazing. They control the entire supply chain top to bottom, they are where Apple was at in the early 00s. No manufacturer for a long time, especially not NKLA, will catch up to Tesla when it comes to autonomous driving data or charging infrastructure.

[VAmanBulls]

Will you be in G fund on November 1.

That is a good question. I have not decided. I think the obvious safe play would be to sit out. There is talk the results of Nov 1 could drag out with lawyers on both sides for weeks. It may depend for me personally on how much of my recent losses I can make back up in the next few weeks. I for sure won't stay in the G for too long after the election because I do think earnings will carry the markets higher in 2021 and 2022. A big part of me wants to go 80C and 20S and not look at it until May 2022.

[md2018]

Yes I will be out by Nov 1. Hopefully todays bounce goes a littler higher.

[searight]

Last time Biden came into office the crash was Sept 29 2008 before the election. Now that crash was based on strength of the markets and other factors. But if you are looking for a date here is a guess.

[Regularguy]

Great point, If I do jump out at Halloween I will be back in shortly after and hope for a repeat of the 2016 climb

[md2018]

I guess it depends on you are betting wins. Looking back to 08/09. We didn’t get a market turn around until Mar 09 when the fed cut rates. I don’t think they have much left to cut now so if large tax increases are on the horizon how do you think the market will respond?

In 2016 when Trump won there was a big shock but an exuberance of hope for tax cuts, low unemployment, and business growth which led to a big market upswing.

[tspwizard1]

I don't want to create a panic. So I will just lie and say the market looks great. I want to show confidence and strength.

[ARMYINF]

Those of you considering Nikola and holding Tesla. What are your thoughts on Fisker? Can the car company come around the second time and be successful? Has Fisker learned from his mistakes when he lost his race against Tesla the first time around? Very interesting time in the EV market right now.

[VAmanBulls]

Those of you considering Nikola and holding Tesla. What are your thoughts on Fisker? Can the car company come around the second time and be successful? Has Fisker learned from his mistakes when he lost his race against Tesla the first time around? Very interesting time in the EV market right now.

I don't follow Fisker and don't know much about it. Nikola is back on my radar because they seem to have legs with the GM partnership to produce the Badger pickup truck. Nikola is also into commercial truck production which I think has potential. I also like Nikola's CEO, Mark Russell. He reminds me of Elon Musk who is part crazy and part genius. Still very risky. Will pickup truck guys buy it? Will it melt at 10K miles? I recently bought back into Tesla when I saw the hair cut they recently got. I still think the share price is far ahead of where the company is today, but I see a great deal of potential for the company. Like a baby Amazon. Remember when Amazon was just an online book store.

[ronh227]

Speaking of which...

https://seekingalpha.com/article/437338 ... orrections

How reliable do you find CNN's index?

[VAmanBulls]

Warren Buffett was listening to my initial post above:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/10/tech/sno ... index.html

[tspwizard1]

>190,000 dead American civilians due to the virus. Would have been nice if Trump would have told his followers the truth and maybe had them wear a mask to save lives instead of lying to them for the first month saying it was a 'hoax' and 'just a flu'. The virus could have been massively slowed. Instead those pricks walked without masks spreading the virus around. As it sits the United States is the worst off in total cases and deaths of all developed countries due to the virus. Our stock market is about to crash hard because our economy is trashed. All college towns in this country getting absolutely hammered. Almost a million MORE people filed for unemployment for the first time last week. This boat is going down folks. Hide in G.