TSP Center

Why are so many members moving into the I fund?

Learning as I go.

A number of TSPcalc.com strategies are moving to I Fund for a few days before going to the G Fund for a couple of weeks. So it's probably just a bunch of members following their strategies.

Right, I'm in the I Fund now because I'm following 85660 currently. The morning was looking good, but today it ultimately ended flat. Two more days to make some sic gains so let's get it going I fund!

Also, unlike S and C funds that have broke previous record highs since the pandemic started the I-fund is still 10 points from it's previous high. There is also some potential that the I-fund will move higher when the US stock funds are going down because Europe is handling the pandemic differently than the US.

harryface wrote:Also, unlike S and C funds that have broke previous record highs since the pandemic started the I-fund is still 10 points from it's previous high. There is also some potential that the I-fund will move higher when the US stock funds are going down because Europe is handling the pandemic differently than the US.

Hypothetically, yes.

Empirically, that has not (yet?) proven to be the case.

bloobs wrote: Hypothetically, yes.

Empirically, that has not (yet?) proven to be the case.

Good to see that your rep points are in the green. And matches your new flag color too - I like the OD or ranger green look.

jlozano042 wrote:

bloobs wrote: Hypothetically, yes.

Empirically, that has not (yet?) proven to be the case.

Good to see that your rep points are in the green. And matches your new flag color too - I like the OD or ranger green look.

My flag color changes in response to the color of my rep points label, which by the way you all decide for me

What's the deal with this I fund? I thought EFA was the ticker to follow it. I showed a humble positive gain yesterday, but the Center here is reporting a .70 loss.

VAmanBulls wrote:What's the deal with this I fund? I thought EFA was the ticker to follow it. I showed a humble positive gain yesterday, but the Center here is reporting a .70 loss.

There is latency between the MSCI EFA and I Fund due to the time zone differences between the US and international markets open times. The other factor is currency exchange calculations (dollar to other currencies). Both factors result in a sometimes significant misalignment in share prices.

I try to avoid the I fund in my TSP account. I do trade EFA heavily in my private accounts, and that ETF I consider much more properly valuated compared to US equity ETFs right now.

Thanks for the info. I'm not a 'sometimes significant misalignment in share price' kind of guy. I'm done with the I fund.

Just experienced the worst single month ever in seasonal 82111 (-7%). It has a standard deviation of approximately 2.6 and after moving into I it tanked the last three days. This happened to me in 2018 when I followed a seasonal strategy that suffered some record ugly months. I’m in G now so I’ve locked in the losses. Market volatility be dammed!

This is my problem with strategies: what if you pick the wrong one? Which of the 1,000's of strategies are you going to choose? Why that one when any of the others are just as good? Which strategy is the correct one? Ex. 85660 is doing great for the year but this month has been horrible (the worst month of the 14 years). At what point do you bail on a strategy? What do you do about black swan events like Covid? Blindly continue to follow and not react? That doesn't make any sense. Better to cut and run and jump back in on a better day. I'm beginning to think chart analysis and hedging your bets based on current trends might be better.

ronh227 wrote:This is my problem with strategies: what if you pick the wrong one? Which of the 1,000's of strategies are you going to choose? Why that one when any of the others are just as good? Which strategy is the correct one? Ex. 85660 is doing great for the year but this month has been horrible (the worst month of the 14 years). At what point do you bail on a strategy? What do you do about black swan events like Covid? Blindly continue to follow and not react? That doesn't make any sense. Better to cut and run and jump back in on a better day. I'm beginning to think chart analysis and hedging your bets based on current trends might be better.

The point of following a daily seasonal strategy is so
you CAN CHOOSE to ignore market volatility, such as black swan events and other irrational swings.

Pick one with the mean and standard deviation that matches your personal risk tolerance.

Adjust if needed after each calendar year, if it does not meet your expectations.

ronh227 wrote:This is my problem with strategies: what if you pick the wrong one? Which of the 1,000's of strategies are you going to choose? Why that one when any of the others are just as good? Which strategy is the correct one? Ex. 85660 is doing great for the year but this month has been horrible (the worst month of the 14 years). At what point do you bail on a strategy? What do you do about black swan events like Covid? Blindly continue to follow and not react? That doesn't make any sense. Better to cut and run and jump back in on a better day. I'm beginning to think chart analysis and hedging your bets based on current trends might be better.

No strategy will win all the time - even buy-and-hold. All you can do is to pick a method that makes sense to you and your own understanding of the market: buy-and-hold, trend following, day trading, timing the market swings, seasonal, etc. For some of us, buy-and-hold makes the most sense. For others, it's seasonal. For others it's something else.

The point is that there is no one "right" way to invest. There are some ways that are certainly less successful that are best avoided (buy-and-hold only the G Fund, for example). But if you've tried giving seasonal a chance and it doesn't work for you and your risk tolerance, well, then it doesn't work for you. You need to find something that you are comfortable using and understand.

Maybe for you it's following seasonal but keeping an eye on technical indicators that show the current year to be an off year for whatever reason, and adjusting accordingly. That means you'll need to do some digging and learning on those pieces that you don't yet understand, or if you do understand them already, to begin incorporating them into your personal strategy.