TSP Forecast 10 Nov

General TSP Discussion.

Moderator: Aitrus

User avatar
snaffu
Posts: 380
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 2:09 pm

TSP Forecast 10 Nov

Post by snaffu »

I've been wanting to get back to this for a while now but wanted to wait till after the elections mess was over. My goal is 2-3 times a week for updates, like before..

My position: 100% S-Fund. Considering 100% G in the next few days...

AGG / F Fund:... Full STO's are falling, RSI is neutral. F Fund has not been a good place to be for a while unless your timing is exceptional. MACD is in negative territory and has been for a few months. I would not be in F given the volitivity and overall downward trend.

SPX / C Fund:... What a ride for the core funds.. MACD is on the rise for the moment, but STO's are above 70, RSI is above 63 so I'm looking for a downturn in the next few days.

DWCPF / S Fund:... Although making +.71%, it was the worst performer of the day. STO, MACD and RSI are the same as C fund.

EFA / I Fund:... The fans of I fund has had a wonderful past week.. But I don't expect it to last. Target is out of the BB so I'd look for a pullback today. Like the others, STO is above 70 and I'm looking for a retracement in the next few days.

Past 5 days returns..
C Fund...7.31%
S Fund...7.53%
I Fund....9.08%

Other Charts....
DOW Index , CNBC Pre-Markets

Summary... I'm holding onto S Fund for the next few days.. I've already burned one IFT getting into S this month, so I'm cautious about when to jump. We'll see what the next day or two brings..
Just because I give you advice, It doesn't mean I know more than you, It just means I've done more stupid stuff.

crondanet5
Posts: 4330
Joined: Tue Aug 19, 2008 8:51 pm

Re: TSP Forecast 10 Nov

Post by crondanet5 »

What is pushing you toward going G Fund?

User avatar
snaffu
Posts: 380
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 2:09 pm

Re: TSP Forecast 10 Nov

Post by snaffu »

Normally I would go to F to squeak out a few more percentage points, but its been on a relative down turn.

If you're asking Why G after a day like Yesterday, then its because of yesterday.. and the past week. Too much gain in too short of a timeframe. I look for a change in direction when RSI and STO are near max (or Min), and MACD start to come together. To the folks who are getting into C or S now, IMHO, you're wasting an IFT.

Snaffu
Just because I give you advice, It doesn't mean I know more than you, It just means I've done more stupid stuff.

User avatar
Tomanyiron
Posts: 4973
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: TSP Forecast 10 Nov

Post by Tomanyiron »

snaffu wrote:... and the past week. Too much gain in too short of a timeframe. I look for a change in direction when RSI and STO are near max (or Min), and MACD start to come together. To the folks who are getting into C or S now, IMHO, you're wasting an IFT.
Snaffu
Hi Snaffu, we missed you. Funny you said that, because I was looking at something that told me to be careful also.
NYSE Advance-Decline Volume
Image

http://schrts.co/InWjviFI

User avatar
bloobs
Posts: 1616
Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 8:00 pm

Re: TSP Forecast 10 Nov

Post by bloobs »

Makes sense, in a technical analysis sort of way, to me.

Do you have a short list of individual stocks that are considered "low beta value" for the next few weeks?

User avatar
snaffu
Posts: 380
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 2:09 pm

Re: TSP Forecast 10 Nov

Post by snaffu »

Tomany, When RSI is shaded like that, I'm just waiting for MACD to flinch and jump funds.

Bloobs, If that was for me, I am strictly chart analysis. I couldn't tell you what Beta did for me if I had to..
Just because I give you advice, It doesn't mean I know more than you, It just means I've done more stupid stuff.

Bubba
Posts: 394
Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:40 am

Re: TSP Forecast 10 Nov

Post by Bubba »

bloobs wrote:Makes sense, in a technical analysis sort of way, to me.

Do you have a short list of individual stocks that are considered "low beta value" for the next few weeks?
Bloobs, per my research, right now is the best time for transportation, through the upcoming Monday. Afterwards, it's great to be out of the market for a few days.

In terms of the TSP, I'm waiting for the 14th trading day, which is the 19th to return back to the S Fund. I'm a little different than most dailies as I stay in the S for the first few days of December.

Of course all of my research is based on a "normal" market. Whatever is going on (COVID, presidential acrimony and other issues) are not necessarily "normal" so this year is still a bit of a question. I think after this coming February things will go back to a seasonal situation (or at least I hope).

Best,

The Bubster

User avatar
bloobs
Posts: 1616
Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 8:00 pm

Re: TSP Forecast 10 Nov

Post by bloobs »

Bubba wrote:Bloobs, per my research, right now is the best time for transportation, through the upcoming Monday. Afterwards, it's great to be out of the market for a few days.

In terms of the TSP, I'm waiting for the 14th trading day, which is the 19th to return back to the S Fund. I'm a little different than most dailies as I stay in the S for the first few days of December.

Of course all of my research is based on a "normal" market. Whatever is going on (COVID, presidential acrimony and other issues) are not necessarily "normal" so this year is still a bit of a question. I think after this coming February things will go back to a seasonal situation (or at least I hope).

Best,

The Bubster
thanks for the lead!

crondanet5
Posts: 4330
Joined: Tue Aug 19, 2008 8:51 pm

Re: TSP Forecast 10 Nov

Post by crondanet5 »

blobs- GAB

crondanet5
Posts: 4330
Joined: Tue Aug 19, 2008 8:51 pm

Re: TSP Forecast 10 Nov

Post by crondanet5 »

snaffu this is one third of the way through the month and you are talking about exiting the market. Yesterday was good, but what if the nineteenth is better? You have the same problem as Produceman, one IFT remaining. Can you carefully study the charts to see if it is worth staying in the rest of the month and then in December have an "exit" IFT and a "re-entry" IFT to better improve your Account Balance?

User avatar
bloobs
Posts: 1616
Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 8:00 pm

Re: TSP Forecast 10 Nov

Post by bloobs »

crondanet5 wrote:blobs- GAB
Will look into it Cronds :)

User avatar
snaffu
Posts: 380
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 2:09 pm

Re: TSP Forecast 10 Nov

Post by snaffu »

Crondanet, Staying for the rest of the month? probably not. I'm estimating to be out by Monday next week. Tomorrow will decide if I'm out sooner or later.. Thursday is a holiday and markets are closed I think. Fridays are normally a down day.. If today is a dead-cat bounce, then we have a few more up-days, but I dont think so. Last Monday's candle looks like a large starburst, a reversal sign.

My thinking.. Take my gains off the table, like I did last month, ride a down week and miss a couple of days in the upswing around Thanksgiving.

Its 1030, the charts have already broke to the downside. I might jump today.

Snaffu
Just because I give you advice, It doesn't mean I know more than you, It just means I've done more stupid stuff.

User avatar
bloobs
Posts: 1616
Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 8:00 pm

Re: TSP Forecast 10 Nov

Post by bloobs »

snaffu wrote:Crondanet, Staying for the rest of the month? probably not. I'm estimating to be out by Monday next week. Tomorrow will decide if I'm out sooner or later.. Thursday is a holiday and markets are closed I think. Fridays are normally a down day.. If today is a dead-cat bounce, then we have a few more up-days, but I dont think so. Last Monday's candle looks like a large starburst, a reversal sign.

My thinking.. Take my gains off the table, like I did last month, ride a down week and miss a couple of days in the upswing around Thanksgiving.

Its 1030, the charts have already broke to the downside. I might jump today.

Snaffu
On the flip side, for those presently in cash, the downside break in the coming hours, days or week is a buy signal--right on schedule per the most successful daily seasonals.

ProduceMan
Posts: 573
Joined: Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:01 pm

Re: TSP Forecast 10 Nov

Post by ProduceMan »

crondanet5 wrote:snaffu this is one third of the way through the month and you are talking about exiting the market. Yesterday was good, but what if the nineteenth is better? You have the same problem as Produceman, one IFT remaining. Can you carefully study the charts to see if it is worth staying in the rest of the month and then in December have an "exit" IFT and a "re-entry" IFT to better improve your Account Balance?
I actually did 4 IFTies already
Moneys’ Money Making Money (4M)

crondanet5
Posts: 4330
Joined: Tue Aug 19, 2008 8:51 pm

Re: TSP Forecast 10 Nov

Post by crondanet5 »

I only see 2 for November so far. Assuming you do not make one today you can only IFT twelve more times this month.

Post Reply

Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

Live Charts

Pending Allocations

Under development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".