Move to S Fund tomorrow?

[sconey]

Good afternoon. My seasonal calls for me to move to S Fund tomorrow, after having been in G Fund since 11/9 per my seasonal (and sadly missing the recent S Fund rise). If I follow my seasonal, I am terrified that I am buying high and moving into an S Fund that is soon for a "correction"/"adjustment"/"downturn". Your thoughts/comments on my dilemma are greatly appreciated as I greatly value the input on this site? Thank you.

[jlozano042]

Just a question if I may sconey?

When do you retire?

[searight]

I am in the same boat, seasonal says to go into S. Challenge is that the S hasn't had any corrections. The federal government's CR ends on 11 Dec, and congress will have to come up with an agreement and POTUS needs to sign it into law. If they can't then we face a shutdown in 3 weeks which could affect stocks.

So, any thoughts about moving back into S or wait until a drop from a possible shutdown?

[sconey]

jlozano042, you may. I'm 56 y.o.a. now. Likely looking at retirement in 6-9 yrs, with the 9 yrs the more realistic probability.

[bloobs]

I am in the same boat, seasonal says to go into S. Challenge is that the S hasn't had any corrections. The federal government's CR ends on 11 Dec, and congress will have to come up with an agreement and POTUS needs to sign it into law. If they can't then we face a shutdown in 3 weeks which could affect stocks.

So, any thoughts about moving back into S or wait until a drop from a possible shutdown?

Feel free to delay it by a day or two if you wish.

Remember, there is no hard and fast rule that you should move from G to S exactly on November 18th at close of market. So what if a bunch of historically successful daily seasonals just happen to pick that trading day because, over 15 years, IFT'ing on that day ekes out some marginal gain as compared to IFT'ing the day before or after. By marginal I am speaking of maybe a .01% gain.

[userque]

I am in the same boat, seasonal says to go into S. Challenge is that the S hasn't had any corrections. The federal government's CR ends on 11 Dec, and congress will have to come up with an agreement and POTUS needs to sign it into law. If they can't then we face a shutdown in 3 weeks which could affect stocks.

So, any thoughts about moving back into S or wait until a drop from a possible shutdown?

Feel free to delay it by a day or two if you wish.

Remember, there is no hard and fast rule that you should move from G to S exactly on November 18th at close of market. So what if a bunch of historically successful daily seasonals just happen to pick that trading day because, over 15 years, IFT'ing on that day ekes out some marginal gain as compared to IFT'ing the day before or after. By marginal I am speaking of maybe a .01% gain.

It could be marginal, or it could be greater than marginal.

One could just simply use TSPCalc to test out the possibilities to see how much of a difference a day or two could make ... historically.

[sconey]

I also realize that the "seasonals" are simply historical data/predictions and cannot foresee "black swan" events such as COVID, etc. (and spikes due to vaccine announcements) that may cause one to re-think making a "scheduled" move in such strange times. Thanks to all for the comments because I truly do value them.

[JD223]

I'm in the same boat... I think I'm gonna stay in G until it drops...

[VAmanBulls]

9 years to go, you're a little shorter (not by much) than my goal. I'm knee deep in the market right now and sleep just fine. I'm not too concerned about a shut-down this year. But you used the word terrified so I'm thinking we might be on different risk tolerance poles. You'll see a lot more fear about COVID in the short and that will impact the markets, but I think it will only be a surface correction if that makes sense. But understand I was called 'delusional' by a wizard on this site many months ago for calling a new bull forming and a V-shaped recovery so what do I really know. Oh and I see the eject to retirement pull as a number (dollar amount number) not a date. Stay thirsty, stay well and whatever you do, stay motivated!

[jlozano042]

9 years to go, you're a little shorter (not by much) than my goal. I'm knee deep in the market right now and sleep just fine. I'm not too concerned about a shut-down this year. But you used the word terrified so I'm thinking we might be on different risk tolerance poles. You'll see a lot more fear about COVID in the short and that will impact the markets, but I think it will only be a surface correction if that makes sense. But understand I was called 'delusional' by a wizard on this site many months ago for calling a new bull forming and a V-shaped recovery so what do I really know. Oh and I see the eject to retirement pull as a number (dollar amount number) not a date. Stay thirsty, stay well and whatever you do, stay motivated!

sconey

I like this advice and VAmanBulls brought up a point I was going to make yesterday but didn't have the time. Your use of the word "terrified" has me ... terrified. Only from my own experience but having that feeling and making a decision outside the plan tend to get folks in trouble real quick. The plan is ... the plan ... or the "this is the way" if you were Mandalorian. Stick with it and you should NOT be terrified. You still have quite a few years to go before retirement, my risk tolerance wouldn't be "HIGH" in your shoes but slowly going into safe as the years go by. I can't see your fantasy TSP account to know how you are doing this year - hopefully it is going well for you.

Oh and .. there aint no such things as wizards.

[bloobs]

9 years to go, you're a little shorter (not by much) than my goal. I'm knee deep in the market right now and sleep just fine. I'm not too concerned about a shut-down this year. But you used the word terrified so I'm thinking we might be on different risk tolerance poles. You'll see a lot more fear about COVID in the short and that will impact the markets, but I think it will only be a surface correction if that makes sense. But understand I was called 'delusional' by a wizard on this site many months ago for calling a new bull forming and a V-shaped recovery so what do I really know. Oh and I see the eject to retirement pull as a number (dollar amount number) not a date. Stay thirsty, stay well and whatever you do, stay motivated!

sconey

I like this advice and VAmanBulls brought up a point I was going to make yesterday but didn't have the time. Your use of the word "terrified" has me ... terrified. Only from my own experience but having that feeling and making a decision outside the plan tend to get folks in trouble real quick. The plan is ... the plan ... or the "this is the way" if you were Mandalorian. Stick with it and you should NOT be terrified. You still have quite a few years to go before retirement, my risk tolerance wouldn't be "HIGH" in your shoes but slowly going into safe as the years go by. I can't see your fantasy TSP account to know how you are doing this year - hopefully it is going well for you.

Oh and .. there aint no such things as wizards.

What, no accompanying meme? who are you and what have you done with the real J?

[jlozano042]

What, no accompanying meme? who are you and what have you done with the real J?

Hahahahaha - you are damn right good sir - my apologies!

[sconey]

Once again, thx to all for the excellent comments and analysis. My use of the word "terrified" was hyperbole, and "scared" is a more accurate description. Having said that, I do favor an aggressive to very aggressive approach, which fortunately has served me well up to this point in 2020. Ironically, however, that is the reason that I now am "scared" because I don't want to lose my strong gains year to date by being overly aggressive. As I type this, I realize that I simply am in the same boat as all TSP'ers....."Play it safe and likely see small gains/small losses or be aggressive in hopes of larger returns."

[Aitrus]

Hope and fear are the same.

"Hecato says, 'cease to hope and you will cease to fear.'...The primary cause of both these ills is that instead of adapting ourselves to present circumstances we send out thoughts too far ahead." - Seneca, Moral Letters, 5.b-8

"Hope is generally regarded as good. Fear is generally regarded as bad. To a Stoic, they are both the same - they are both projections into the future about things we do not control. Both are the enemy of this present moment that we are actually in. Both mean you're living a life in opposition to amor fati . It's not about overcoming our fears, but rather understanding that both hope and fear contain a dangerous amount of want and worry in them. And, sadly, the want is what causes the worry." - Ryan Holiday, The Daily Stoic, page 341

Amor fati is the love of fate, and doing so by embracing the future and accepting that what will be will be because we don't have the power to change it in any way. Hoping or fearing for something different is only a waste of energy and robs us of the real joys available to us in the present. The future will be what it is, regardless what we hope or fear for it. All we can do is prepare for it the best we can and trust that things will work out as they are meant to.

[High Rise]

Full disclosure. I'm not an expert, I only apply current events to the market for the most part.

The market will have another correction as investors sell off there gains. Could be in a couple weeks, or could go to January. Then would be a better time.

The markets are more prepared for lockdowns, but there is reason to be timid that a bigger correction / selloff could happen.

I'm Ranked #7 over the past year right now. How the hell did that happen:)