TSP Forecast 23-27 Nov

[snaffu]

My position: 100% G-Fund till EOM.

AGG / F Fund:... F continues to rise and I expect it to continue for the next few days. MACD has crossed into positive territory and is wide open, STO is above 90 and I expect it to stay there for the next few days. RSI is rising past 60. I'd call this a hold if you are there.

SPX / C Fund:... MACD, RSI and STO have turned down, price is inside 7MA, I think this one is a sell

DWCPF / S Fund:... I dont know why, but S continues to climb. MACD, STO and RSI all say hold.

EFA / I Fund:... MACD is starting to turn, STO still hanging out in the 90's, RSI is at 70 and holding. price is on the edge of 7MA. I would be cautious..

Past 5 days returns.. Avgs are falling, C is in neg territory. I is relatively flat.
C Fund... -0.73%
S Fund... 3.47%
I Fund.... 1.30%

Other Charts....
DOW Index , CNBC Pre-Markets

Summary... F and S Fund are the only ones I'd be holding on to. Followed by I Fund which may be a sell by my next update.

Snaffu

[Ericdelee]

So if already in S-Fund, the guidance/charts are saying Hold? I’m supposed to be in S Fund for the remainder of the month but I’m a bit suspicious still lol

[Racerx919]

My seasonal strategy has me in S until the 30th. I think the positive news on Covid vaccines is driving the prices higher. Pull back, or even higher is anyone's guess.

[snaffu]

So if already in S-Fund, the guidance/charts are saying Hold? I’m supposed to be in S Fund for the remainder of the month but I’m a bit suspicious still lol

Don't fight the wave.. If you are still in S, Then stay there until it crosses the 7MA blue line on the chart like the C fund and DOW did last week. Is this an early Santa rally? I hope not..

Snaffu

[Scorpio70]

The market has done well in November. I wonder if the S&P will dip in early December. Might be a buying opportunity. It does not seem to want to go up in a straight line.

[dbjr2000]

what and where is the 7MA blue line chart ?

[snaffu]

dbjr, There is not a blue line chart by itself. the 7MA (Moving Average) is a blue line on each of the charts I have linked on my first post of this thread. It follows the daily price.

Snaffu

[broncos32]

Or maybe and this is a big maybe given everyone seems to know when to time the marker, you just hold and continue to allocate in diversification and cost average. Then 5-10 years you will have doubled your principal. I know it's a radical idea.

[Ericdelee]

Isn’t there generally a pullback when we hit the top of the BB (solid green line)?

[snaffu]

Not necessarily. Price can ride the band, or more accurately, the band rides the price for days to weeks at a time. The band is made up of volatility and price. The price pulling away just means that there is a change in volatility.

Bollinger Bands are envelopes plotted at a standard deviation level above and below a simple moving average of the price. Because the distance of the bands is based on standard deviation, they adjust to volatility swings in the underlying price. Bollinger Bands use 2 parameters, Period and Standard Deviations, StdDev.

A better indication of a pull back (up or down) is the RSI above 70 or below 30 in combination with other indicators. If it was as easy as 'If the market does this, then Buy or sell', everyone would be a millionaire.

Snaffu

[snaffu]

My position: 100% G-Fund till EOM.

AGG / F Fund:... F has retraced and given back a few days of gains. Its approaching the 7MA. STO, RSI and MACD have started to roll over also. I'd be cautious with this one.

SPX / C Fund:... The DOW has crossed 30K and taken almost everything else with it. MACD, RSI and STO have turned back up and price is above the 7MA. Lets see if it holds over the upcoming holiday.

DWCPF / S Fund:... DWCPF climbed 1.36% today, RSI is above 77, STO and MACD are moving positive.

EFA / I Fund:... I fund has moved off the 7MA and RSI is above 70. MACD and STO are still positive.

Past 5 days returns.. Avgs are mixed, but all positive for the past week.
F Fund... 0.18%
C Fund... 0.76%
S Fund... 4.14%
I Fund.... 1.70%

Other Charts....
DOW Index , CNBC Pre-Markets

Summary... I know that yesterday was a great day, but I'm concerned about a couple of things. AGG took a good hit. I've noticed that a change in F is followed by the same change in the core funds a few days later, That coupled with a holiday weekend, where it seems folks take profits the day(s) after a holiday. I have nothing to back it up, just my opinion.

Remember, The markets close Thanksgiving, so I think TSP will also be closed for IFT's

Snaffu

[Ericdelee]

Not necessarily. Price can ride the band, or more accurately, the band rides the price for days to weeks at a time. The band is made up of volatility and price. The price pulling away just means that there is a change in volatility.

Bollinger Bands are envelopes plotted at a standard deviation level above and below a simple moving average of the price. Because the distance of the bands is based on standard deviation, they adjust to volatility swings in the underlying price. Bollinger Bands use 2 parameters, Period and Standard Deviations, StdDev.

A better indication of a pull back (up or down) is the RSI above 70 or below 30 in combination with other indicators. If it was as easy as 'If the market does this, then Buy or sell', everyone would be a millionaire.

Snaffu

Just wanted to thank you for your continued responses.
Very helpful!

[snaffu]

Just wanted to thank you for your continued responses.
Very helpful!

Thank you