Nervous....

General TSP Discussion.

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Chulke
Posts: 302
Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 10:25 am

Nervous....

Post by Chulke »

Anyone else nervous about following your chosen investment plan as prescribed by TSPcalc or any other chosen plan?

I ask because given the recent market down trends and all the geopolitical BS going on in our country and around the world for that matter....well and lets face it 2020 has not been a normal year at all for anything investment wise....It just makes me nervous.

I'm slotted to S fund next week and I have noticed its been doing fairly well still....I just have this ominous feeling that all hell is going to break loose and our plans will mean nothing!

Wild swings all year...Crazy politics...Just nothing for certain right now!

Hate it!!



Cheers!!
Cheers!

Current Strat: 85660
Current PIP: 24.89

wmfullen
Posts: 8
Joined: Tue Sep 30, 2014 8:59 am

Re: Nervous....

Post by wmfullen »

Agree...

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bloobs
Posts: 1067
Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 8:00 pm

Re: Nervous....

Post by bloobs »

Chulke wrote:Anyone else nervous about following your chosen investment plan as prescribed by TSPcalc or any other chosen plan?

I ask because given the recent market down trends and all the geopolitical BS going on in our country and around the world for that matter....well and lets face it 2020 has not been a normal year at all for anything investment wise....It just makes me nervous.

I'm slotted to S fund next week and I have noticed its been doing fairly well still....I just have this ominous feeling that all hell is going to break loose and our plans will mean nothing!

Wild swings all year...Crazy politics...Just nothing for certain right now!

Hate it!!



Cheers!!
Short Answer: Yes.

Long answer: The constant (perhaps increasing) uncertainty facing the markets that you point out is the primary reason I am a big fan of seasonal strategies. The idea behind a seasonal is for investors to make buy/sell decisions based COMPLETELY off of verified, immutable data (historical recorded share prices) run through basic statistical analysis calculations--and nothing else that is understood to be subjective. No opinions or any factor subject to interpretation is added into the analysis.

Long Conclusion:
Is it perfect, no. Can it work better than more elaborate and very qualitative methods, yes. Just look at quite a few of the daily strategies posted on MJ's TSPCALC application. These strategies outperform a myriad of the fanciest investing methods out there significantly. TSPCALC strategies' ludicrously high returns were even achieved during inarguably tumultuous market swings (i.e. Great Recession). What a seasonal strategy has taught me is that when qualitative factors are removed from the investing decision, the market actually follows a largely predictable "rhythm" that puts a lot less weight on one-off "black swan" type events.

Short Conclusion: Follow a seasonal strategy to mitigate your fears about market instability.
It should do well, most of the time. Unless a 2nd civil war breaks out or an asteroid strike happens, I wouldn't worry (too much) about it :lol:

VAmanBulls
Posts: 224
Joined: Wed Jul 24, 2019 8:37 am

Re: Nervous....

Post by VAmanBulls »

One could say this is the perfect set-up. The markets are burning off some of the froth just before another pre-Christmas rise. And your seasonal had you in the G during this burn-off. If the markets tank here soon, I think they go back up quickly after and rise to even new highs. There is simply no stopping the vaccine release and a return to normality over time.

crondanet5
Posts: 4324
Joined: Tue Aug 19, 2008 8:51 pm

Re: Nervous....

Post by crondanet5 »

Chulke you have 2 IFTs. If you start shaking too much go G. When the tremors stop come back in.

Chulke
Posts: 302
Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 10:25 am

Re: Nervous....

Post by Chulke »

I think I'm just gonna close my eyes and follow my strategy....but can't help that ominous feeling of doom! Lol!

Glad to see I'm not alone though!


Cheers!
Cheers!

Current Strat: 85660
Current PIP: 24.89

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sconey
Posts: 18
Joined: Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:05 pm

Re: Nervous....

Post by sconey »

You are not alone, Chulke, For what it's worth, I wholeheartedly share your concerns. I gladly went to G Fund at the beginning of December b/c I was convinced the "other shoe was about to drop". Then, I watched as S Fund continued to rise while I was on the sidelines. I now am due back in S Fund, with a move on the 14th, and I again am nervous for the same reason as before.

anomadtoo
Posts: 45
Joined: Thu Jun 13, 2013 10:23 am

Re: Nervous....

Post by anomadtoo »

definitely in the nervous boat too; just trying to follow the strats somewhat. I moved into S earlier than planned. I hope it doesn't bite me.....

jbirdway
Posts: 32
Joined: Fri Jan 27, 2012 2:12 pm

Re: Nervous....

Post by jbirdway »

All you can do is the best you can, and try not to sweat over things you can't control.

Ericdelee
Posts: 210
Joined: Thu May 30, 2013 7:09 pm

Re: Nervous....

Post by Ericdelee »

I’m 42. I have until 60. I can’t worry about this stuff non-stop or I’ll lose a lot of sleep. I just need 6 more years only half as good as what I did this year in that timeframe to reach sla lofty goal of exceeding my pension value with 4% TSP withdrawals. So I can’t worry too much about a bad week or so.

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misfit
Posts: 237
Joined: Fri Apr 13, 2018 9:21 am

Re: Nervous....

Post by misfit »

Does anyone know why the S fund is outperforming the C these past few months? Seems all of a sudden. And the C fund is actually dropping somewhat as the S increases. What's going on here? Thanks and good luck everyone.

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IRQVET
Posts: 85
Joined: Tue May 03, 2016 12:45 am

Re: Nervous....

Post by IRQVET »

misfit wrote:Does anyone know why the S fund is outperforming the C these past few months? Seems all of a sudden. And the C fund is actually dropping somewhat as the S increases. What's going on here? Thanks and good luck everyone.
I noticed the same thing and had the same question.
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sconey
Posts: 18
Joined: Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:05 pm

Re: Nervous....

Post by sconey »

anomadtoo wrote:definitely in the nervous boat too; just trying to follow the strats somewhat. I moved into S earlier than planned. I hope it doesn't bite me.....
Anomadtoo: Funny, but despite my reservations, I did the same thing as you (jumped in early) and now am sitting 100% in S Fund as of today on hopes that the FDA panel vaccine recommendation might generate a bump. Fingers crossed for all of us.

Scorpio70
Posts: 432
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:49 am

Re: Nervous....

Post by Scorpio70 »

I decided to get back in because of a few reasons. 1. The debt being pumped in is at insane levels, so the economy's condition is not currently relevant. 2. The value of the dollar has been dropping. The TSP does not have Gold, Silver, or Bit Coin. 3. Most treasuries are junk bonds these days. G fund is it's own thing. 4. Wall Street will get bonuses this year. We know this because the Treasury did not divulge the names of most of the corporations getting bail outs in 2020. 5. The bonus amounts will depend on end of year performance. I could be wrong, but when I was in Corporate America I watched people run businesses into the ground and walk away with Millions.

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rcozby
Posts: 341
Joined: Mon Aug 11, 2014 12:14 pm

Re: Nervous....

Post by rcozby »

IRQVET wrote:
misfit wrote:Does anyone know why the S fund is outperforming the C these past few months? Seems all of a sudden. And the C fund is actually dropping somewhat as the S increases. What's going on here? Thanks and good luck everyone.
I noticed the same thing and had the same question.
Seems to me that COVID has impacted smaller businesses more severely than larger ones, so the vaccine would make S Fund prospects rosier than C Fund. Also, during the normal business cycle, S Fund turns around to the positive at the bottom of the cycle earlier than the C Fund, just as it turns negative before the C Fund at the top of the cycle.

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Fund Prices2021-04-16

FundPriceDayYTD
G $16.56 0.00% 0.34%
F $20.66 -0.21% -2.53%
C $62.57 0.36% 11.92%
S $83.28 -0.04% 12.24%
I $38.19 0.63% 7.92%
L2065 $13.71 0.39% 10.49%
L2060 $13.71 0.39% 10.49%
L2055 $13.71 0.39% 10.49%
L2050 $27.99 0.31% 8.45%
L2045 $12.79 0.29% 7.92%
L2040 $46.72 0.27% 7.42%
L2035 $12.36 0.25% 6.82%
L2030 $41.20 0.23% 6.25%
L2025 $11.71 0.18% 4.93%
Linc $22.82 0.08% 2.45%

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