Nervous....

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12squared
Posts: 372
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2015 7:28 am

Re: Nervous....

Post by 12squared »

IRQVET wrote:
misfit wrote:Does anyone know why the S fund is outperforming the C these past few months? Seems all of a sudden. And the C fund is actually dropping somewhat as the S increases. What's going on here? Thanks and good luck everyone.
I noticed the same thing and had the same question.
There's also the Tesla factor.

C & S funds have the same correlation to TSLA until Nov 16, when each bottomed around 35%. For the past week or so, the correlation of TSLA to $DWCPF has been above 95%, but only 80% for $SPX.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TSLA& ... 8134989503
TSLA corr $SPX & $DWCPF 12-11-20 close.png
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“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend — not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Jack Schannep

"Know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em"
- Kenny Rogers

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bamafamily
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Re: Nervous....

Post by bamafamily »

Very interesting @12squared. Thx for the insight
Bama

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bloobs
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Re: Nervous....

Post by bloobs »

12squared wrote: There's also the Tesla factor.

C & S funds have the same correlation to TSLA until Nov 16, when each bottomed around 35%. For the past week or so, the correlation of TSLA to $DWCPF has been above 95%, but only 80% for $SPX.
It makes sense to me that TSLA price movements strongly correlates to the $DWSCPF (S Fund) values, since it is that index's largest component. Wouldn't TSLA's expected correlation to the $SPX, post 12/21, be much more muted since it would now be a small fish in a pond filled with big fishes?

Also, does it make sense to assume S Fund volatility to taper off after its departure? I am trying to fathom possible behavior of both funds after the 12/21.

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sconey
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Re: Nervous....

Post by sconey »

Anyone else been sitting in F Fund in January, per their seasonal, with a move to S Fund on Friday, worried that we watched the bubble only to now move into S Fund just in time to catch the bubble bursting?

TSPBuilder
Posts: 254
Joined: Tue Jun 19, 2012 2:14 pm

Re: Nervous....

Post by TSPBuilder »

sconey wrote:Anyone else been sitting in F Fund in January, per their seasonal, with a move to S Fund on Friday, worried that we watched the bubble only to now move into S Fund just in time to catch the bubble bursting?
Greetings sconey :)
I followed #85660 all last year and it has me in F just like you. The beauty of this strategy for me is there is a high probability that it will return a +20% every year based on the projections and following it through thick and thin this crazy year confirmed that it is my new mantra. That being said, I have let a small amount of greed compel me to keep an eye on #105104 this year while I track the #85660 in the TSP. I just decided today (unfortunately after the noon deadline) to IFT to S early by a couple days. Both strategies had me in the S from 1/15/21 to 2/17/21 so I think a bursting bubble to not be a likelihood and still finish out 2021 with a solid +20%. The plus so far this year is that I took a gamble on my brokerage account and stayed in the leveraged, I comparable fund because there was some momentum hinted at and I'm up about 5% there.

Good Luck on your decision to jump or not!

Chulke
Posts: 302
Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 10:25 am

Re: Nervous....

Post by Chulke »

sconey wrote:Anyone else been sitting in F Fund in January, per their seasonal, with a move to S Fund on Friday, worried that we watched the bubble only to now move into S Fund just in time to catch the bubble bursting?

I am not just nervous anymore.....I'm TERRIFIED that your scenario is exactly what's gonna happen....It's what happened last year basically....I made the move to S for February and down she went....and I just barely squeaked out 3% for 2020 in the end!...anymore years like that and I'm gonna have to just go buy and hold C fund for the rest of my working years....my heart just can't take it!


Cheers!
Cheers!

Current Strat: 85660
Current PIP: 24.89

md2018
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Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2010 1:17 pm

Re: Nervous....

Post by md2018 »

There is something to be said about buy and hold. In the last 10 years the S&P has increase about 200%.

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sonofnthng
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Re: Nervous....

Post by sonofnthng »

Following 85660, as well. I did however make the emotional move with my real money. I was in S as of today, and made a nice 1.5%. 85660 has me in S come 01/15 anyway for a little bit, so wherever the S goes, it goes. I'm locked in!

Last year, I made a mistake and missed the deadline for the 03/31 move, and then used my second transfer in April to the G fund... Sat out the whole month and missed out on ~7% gains.

Sometimes following the plan works out, sometimes it doesn't. I have half a mind to go 100% S for the next 15 years. 85660 has outperformed buy and hold since 2004 very consistently, but will it for the next 20 years? This will give you an early heart attack if you let it.
Tracking #85660 -//- PIP 35.29% Jan '21
Seasonal Strategies:
http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.p ... 205#p53743
Yes, death is coming...but then again, it's always coming.
-Aitrus

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sconey
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Re: Nervous....

Post by sconey »

Thx to all for the responses. I'll take solace in the fact that I am not alone in my concern. Regardless, good luck to all!

Octjan2
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Re: Nervous....

Post by Octjan2 »

I am not a believer in these strategies. Remember ole’ strategy 17842 in early 2018. Everyone was praising it as the answer to our future fortunes. It had around 28% mean and 2% standard deviation. A sure thing, right? How has it done since then. It lost 5% in 2018 and 6% in 2020.

Scarfinger
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Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:00 am

Re: Nervous....

Post by Scarfinger »

Octjan2 wrote:I am not a believer in these strategies. Remember ole’ strategy 17842 in early 2018. Everyone was praising it as the answer to our future fortunes. It had around 28% mean and 2% standard deviation. A sure thing, right? How has it done since then. It lost 5% in 2018 and 6% in 2020.
Yeah. I am not sold on them either. I am going to try one for, 6 months? and see what happens. I have been thinking more and more about buy and hold lately.
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
TimboSlice wrote: "People really need to stop overthinking this."
Following Daily Seasonal # 139921 as a general guideline.

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bloobs
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Re: Nervous....

Post by bloobs »

Octjan2 wrote:I am not a believer in these strategies. Remember ole’ strategy 17842 in early 2018. Everyone was praising it as the answer to our future fortunes. It had around 28% mean and 2% standard deviation. A sure thing, right? How has it done since then. It lost 5% in 2018 and 6% in 2020.
The objective of a "daily" seasonal strategy is that, compared to buy and hold, it:
(a) consistently mitigates downside risks (e.g. lowers annualized standard deviations),
(b) while not reducing its annualized returns (the CAGR or mean) significantly, or at all.

By no means does this predict or guarantee what a historically successful strategy's future returns will look like--but MJ's TSPCALC information proves that (a) and (b) has worked well for some strategies per the most recent 15 years and counting the data has been tracked.

There is no other system out that I am aware of that can both quantify and justify its outcomes and results as well--certainly not pure technical analysis.

Scarfinger
Posts: 613
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:00 am

Re: Nervous....

Post by Scarfinger »

bloobs wrote:
Octjan2 wrote:I am not a believer in these strategies. Remember ole’ strategy 17842 in early 2018. Everyone was praising it as the answer to our future fortunes. It had around 28% mean and 2% standard deviation. A sure thing, right? How has it done since then. It lost 5% in 2018 and 6% in 2020.
The objective of a "daily" seasonal strategy is that, compared to buy and hold, it:
(a) consistently mitigates downside risks (e.g. lowers annualized standard deviations),
(b) while not reducing its annualized returns (the CAGR or mean) significantly, or at all.

By no means does this predict or guarantee what a historically successful strategy's future returns will look like--but MJ's TSPCALC information proves that (a) and (b) has worked well for some strategies per the most recent 15 years and counting the data has been tracked.

There is no other system out that I am aware of that can both quantify and justify its outcomes and results as well--certainly not pure technical analysis.

I am hoping to experience the value of a seasonal/daily strategy in a down year. I believe that these strategies will outperform during a bad year. I am keeping an open mind.
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
TimboSlice wrote: "People really need to stop overthinking this."
Following Daily Seasonal # 139921 as a general guideline.

wingchaser
Posts: 122
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Nervous....

Post by wingchaser »

bloobs wrote:
Chulke wrote:Anyone else nervous about following your chosen investment plan as prescribed by TSPcalc or any other chosen plan?

I ask because given the recent market down trends and all the geopolitical BS going on in our country and around the world for that matter....well and lets face it 2020 has not been a normal year at all for anything investment wise....It just makes me nervous.

I'm slotted to S fund next week and I have noticed its been doing fairly well still....I just have this ominous feeling that all hell is going to break loose and our plans will mean nothing!

Wild swings all year...Crazy politics...Just nothing for certain right now!

Hate it!!



Cheers!!
Short Answer: Yes.

Long answer: The constant (perhaps increasing) uncertainty facing the markets that you point out is the primary reason I am a big fan of seasonal strategies. The idea behind a seasonal is for investors to make buy/sell decisions based COMPLETELY off of verified, immutable data (historical recorded share prices) run through basic statistical analysis calculations--and nothing else that is understood to be subjective. No opinions or any factor subject to interpretation is added into the analysis.

Long Conclusion:
Is it perfect, no. Can it work better than more elaborate and very qualitative methods, yes. Just look at quite a few of the daily strategies posted on MJ's TSPCALC application. These strategies outperform a myriad of the fanciest investing methods out there significantly. TSPCALC strategies' ludicrously high returns were even achieved during inarguably tumultuous market swings (i.e. Great Recession). What a seasonal strategy has taught me is that when qualitative factors are removed from the investing decision, the market actually follows a largely predictable "rhythm" that puts a lot less weight on one-off "black swan" type events.

Short Conclusion: Follow a seasonal strategy to mitigate your fears about market instability.
It should do well, most of the time. Unless a 2nd civil war breaks out or an asteroid strike happens, I wouldn't worry (too much) about it :lol:
By years’-end, 15-20 TSPCENTER Member’s will have outperformed the market(s) & none of which will have been Seasonal Enthusiasts...

Just sayin’

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

User avatar
bloobs
Posts: 1067
Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 8:00 pm

Re: Nervous....

Post by bloobs »

wingchaser wrote:
bloobs wrote:
Chulke wrote:Anyone else nervous about following your chosen investment plan as prescribed by TSPcalc or any other chosen plan?

I ask because given the recent market down trends and all the geopolitical BS going on in our country and around the world for that matter....well and lets face it 2020 has not been a normal year at all for anything investment wise....It just makes me nervous.

I'm slotted to S fund next week and I have noticed its been doing fairly well still....I just have this ominous feeling that all hell is going to break loose and our plans will mean nothing!

Wild swings all year...Crazy politics...Just nothing for certain right now!

Hate it!!



Cheers!!
Short Answer: Yes.

Long answer: The constant (perhaps increasing) uncertainty facing the markets that you point out is the primary reason I am a big fan of seasonal strategies. The idea behind a seasonal is for investors to make buy/sell decisions based COMPLETELY off of verified, immutable data (historical recorded share prices) run through basic statistical analysis calculations--and nothing else that is understood to be subjective. No opinions or any factor subject to interpretation is added into the analysis.

Long Conclusion:
Is it perfect, no. Can it work better than more elaborate and very qualitative methods, yes. Just look at quite a few of the daily strategies posted on MJ's TSPCALC application. These strategies outperform a myriad of the fanciest investing methods out there significantly. TSPCALC strategies' ludicrously high returns were even achieved during inarguably tumultuous market swings (i.e. Great Recession). What a seasonal strategy has taught me is that when qualitative factors are removed from the investing decision, the market actually follows a largely predictable "rhythm" that puts a lot less weight on one-off "black swan" type events.

Short Conclusion: Follow a seasonal strategy to mitigate your fears about market instability.
It should do well, most of the time. Unless a 2nd civil war breaks out or an asteroid strike happens, I wouldn't worry (too much) about it :lol:
By years’-end, 15-20 TSPCENTER Member’s will have outperformed the market(s) & none of which will have been Seasonal Enthusiasts...

Just sayin’

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
To be clear, i use daily seasonal strategies to achieve the following investment objectives:

1. Closely match (but not necessarily outperform) buy and hold or tech analysis methods. I would not mind returning 40% consistently over several years like the very few talented top performers here--but i can achieve my preset investment goals with less than that--Besides my other priority is....

2. To achieve objective #1 with quantifiably improved risk management and much less analysis work invested. I can imagine that those who have been getting fabulously high returns here presumably with very advanced market timing/tech analysis put in many more hours researching market condition than the rest of us. I am either too tired, lazy or busy with work/kids/life to devote to these endeavors.

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Fund Prices2021-04-13

FundPriceDayYTD
G $16.56 0.00% 0.33%
F $20.63 0.24% -2.65%
C $61.91 0.33% 10.73%
S $82.51 0.51% 11.20%
I $37.56 0.28% 6.13%
L2065 $13.54 0.34% 9.12%
L2060 $13.54 0.34% 9.12%
L2055 $13.54 0.34% 9.12%
L2050 $27.70 0.30% 7.33%
L2045 $12.66 0.28% 6.87%
L2040 $46.29 0.26% 6.44%
L2035 $12.25 0.24% 5.93%
L2030 $40.88 0.22% 5.43%
L2025 $11.64 0.17% 4.30%
Linc $22.75 0.09% 2.13%

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