Anticipation

[Tomanyiron]

im curious if you tweak your algorithm from time to time, to refine it based on empirical evidence? If so, what changes have you applied?

Yes, I have modified. I found out the old "algorithm" was not that effective to the new market. But it's not a dolus, what I post, I use for my IFTs (both Fantasy and real).

Most of the members are not chart guys, but I will be showing the work soon.

[tnwhiskey]

Well I've been watching this for a while (I tune in for the cartoons if nothing else) and you say "system says move to S" after months of G. Did you do it?

Yes, I made the IFT September 2. My hopes (not worth much) are to stay in S fund past Christmas. A long time out should equal a long time in.

This^^^^. I certainly hope so too. Going off my memory (which is not worth a flip, lol). The system tends to be a little late when going into "S" but is pretty damn good when signaling the move to "G". I really appreciate your efforts. In fact, it's become part of my ritual to check "anticipation" every morning.

[Tomanyiron]

Updated September 7, 2021 at Market Close, Friend 343 (+6), Force 146 (+3)

[Tomanyiron]

Updated September 8, 2021 at Market Close, Friend 343 (same), Force 125 (-21)

[bloobs]

Do you still use the $CPCE index and measure the correlations of its smoothed-out movement with the $DWCPF's (S Fund)? I ask because that correlation has been trippin' this year.

PS - and thanks for the non-politically biased cartoon today

[Tomanyiron]

Do you still use the $CPCE index and measure the correlations of its smoothed-out movement with the $DWCPF's (S Fund)? I ask because that correlation has been trippin' this year.

I look at it, but it's not part of Friend or Force. It looks OK for staying in stocks now.
The chart I look at: https://schrts.co/HEsSvXxm
Why don't you give us your assessment?

PS - and thanks for the non-politically biased cartoon today

Sorry, I should have realized, it's causing more pain for people that already have 'buyer regret'.

[bloobs]

Do you still use the $CPCE index and measure the correlations of its smoothed-out movement with the $DWCPF's (S Fund)? I ask because that correlation has been trippin' this year.

I look at it, but it's not part of Friend or Force. It looks OK for staying in stocks now.
The chart I look at: https://schrts.co/HEsSvXxm
Why don't you give us your assessment?

My assessment is that comparing the put/call ratio movements to the $DWCPF is insufficient to ascertain the latter's momentum or trend--at least nowadays. Perhaps okay to compare it against a "total" market index but even that is suspect given there are so many other factors to consider in the equation in terms of asset classes beyond stocks.

PS - and thanks for the non-politically biased cartoon today

Sorry, I should have realized, it's causing more pain for people that already have 'buyer regret'.

In real life, one is often limited to only two options: one imperfect and the other fatal.....the former is always preferred. Besides I hate that feeling of cognitive dissonance when making decisions against my core values, self-interests, or principles. It eats away at one's soul over time...it really does

[Tomanyiron]

Updated September 9, 2021 at Market Close, Friend 343 (same for past 3 days), Force 104 (-21)

[Tomanyiron]

Updated September 10, 2021 at Market Close, Friend 343 (same for past 4 trading days), Force 65 (-39)

[Tomanyiron]

Updated September 10, 2021 at Market Close, Friend 337 (down 6), Force 32 (-33)

[Tomanyiron]

Updated September 14, 2021 at Market Close, Friend 322, Force -16

[Tomanyiron]

Updated September 115, 2021 at Market Close, Friend 322 (same), Force -37

[Tomanyiron]

https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-scot ... la-1629680
Updated September 16, 2021 at Market Close, Friend 322 (same), Force -21 (up 16)

[Tomanyiron]

Updated September 17, 2021 at Market Close, Friend 319, Force -21

[evilanne]

So are you sitting in S or G right now?