Anticipation

General TSP Discussion.

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Tomanyiron
Posts: 4380
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: Anticipation

Post by Tomanyiron »

bloobs wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 4:52 pm im curious if you tweak your algorithm from time to time, to refine it based on empirical evidence? If so, what changes have you applied?
Yes, I have modified. I found out the old "algorithm" was not that effective to the new market. But it's not a dolus, what I post, I use for my IFTs (both Fantasy and real).

Most of the members are not chart guys, but I will be showing the work soon.

tnwhiskey
Posts: 46
Joined: Thu Dec 12, 2019 7:14 pm

Re: Anticipation

Post by tnwhiskey »

Tomanyiron wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 7:25 am
strohz wrote: Sat Sep 04, 2021 7:14 am Well I've been watching this for a while (I tune in for the cartoons if nothing else) and you say "system says move to S" after months of G. Did you do it?
Yes, I made the IFT September 2. My hopes (not worth much) are to stay in S fund past Christmas. A long time out should equal a long time in. :wink:
This^^^^. I certainly hope so too. Going off my memory (which is not worth a flip, lol). The system tends to be a little late when going into "S" but is pretty damn good when signaling the move to "G". I really appreciate your efforts. In fact, it's become part of my ritual to check "anticipation" every morning.

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Tomanyiron
Posts: 4380
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: Anticipation

Post by Tomanyiron »

Image

Updated September 7, 2021 at Market Close, Friend 343 (+6), Force 146 (+3)

Image
RULES:
1- FORCE must be above zero to be in S fund
2- FRIEND must have two consecutive days up.

3 Go to G fund when FRIEND has two consecutive days down
However, you may use the charts to make your own rules. OR ignore this boondoggle altogether

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Tomanyiron
Posts: 4380
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: Anticipation

Post by Tomanyiron »

Image

Updated September 8, 2021 at Market Close, Friend 343 (same), Force 125 (-21)

Image
RULES:
1- FORCE must be above zero to be in S fund
2- FRIEND must have two consecutive days up.

3 Go to G fund when FRIEND has two consecutive days down
However, you may use the charts to make your own rules. OR ignore this boondoggle altogether

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bloobs
Posts: 1116
Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 8:00 pm

Re: Anticipation

Post by bloobs »

Do you still use the $CPCE index and measure the correlations of its smoothed-out movement with the $DWCPF's (S Fund)? I ask because that correlation has been trippin' this year.

PS - and thanks for the non-politically biased cartoon today :wink:

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Tomanyiron
Posts: 4380
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: Anticipation

Post by Tomanyiron »

bloobs wrote: Thu Sep 09, 2021 7:45 am Do you still use the $CPCE index and measure the correlations of its smoothed-out movement with the $DWCPF's (S Fund)? I ask because that correlation has been trippin' this year.
I look at it, but it's not part of Friend or Force. It looks OK for staying in stocks now.
The chart I look at: https://schrts.co/HEsSvXxm
Why don't you give us your assessment?
bloobs wrote: Thu Sep 09, 2021 7:45 am PS - and thanks for the non-politically biased cartoon today :wink:
Sorry, I should have realized, it's causing more pain for people that already have 'buyer regret'. :?

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bloobs
Posts: 1116
Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 8:00 pm

Re: Anticipation

Post by bloobs »

Tomanyiron wrote: Thu Sep 09, 2021 8:06 am
bloobs wrote: Thu Sep 09, 2021 7:45 am Do you still use the $CPCE index and measure the correlations of its smoothed-out movement with the $DWCPF's (S Fund)? I ask because that correlation has been trippin' this year.
I look at it, but it's not part of Friend or Force. It looks OK for staying in stocks now.
The chart I look at: https://schrts.co/HEsSvXxm
Why don't you give us your assessment?
My assessment is that comparing the put/call ratio movements to the $DWCPF is insufficient to ascertain the latter's momentum or trend--at least nowadays. Perhaps okay to compare it against a "total" market index but even that is suspect given there are so many other factors to consider in the equation in terms of asset classes beyond stocks.
Tomanyiron wrote: Thu Sep 09, 2021 8:06 am
bloobs wrote: Thu Sep 09, 2021 7:45 am PS - and thanks for the non-politically biased cartoon today :wink:
Sorry, I should have realized, it's causing more pain for people that already have 'buyer regret'. :?

In real life, one is often limited to only two options: one imperfect and the other fatal.....the former is always preferred. Besides I hate that feeling of cognitive dissonance when making decisions against my core values, self-interests, or principles. It eats away at one's soul over time...it really does :lol:

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Tomanyiron
Posts: 4380
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: Anticipation

Post by Tomanyiron »

Image

Updated September 9, 2021 at Market Close, Friend 343 (same for past 3 days), Force 104 (-21)

Image
RULES:
1- FORCE must be above zero to be in S fund
2- FRIEND must have two consecutive days up.

3 Go to G fund when FRIEND has two consecutive days down
However, you may use the charts to make your own rules. OR ignore this boondoggle altogether

User avatar
Tomanyiron
Posts: 4380
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: Anticipation

Post by Tomanyiron »

Image

Updated September 10, 2021 at Market Close, Friend 343 (same for past 4 trading days), Force 65 (-39)

Image
RULES:
1- FORCE must be above zero to be in S fund
2- FRIEND must have two consecutive days up.

3 Go to G fund when FRIEND has two consecutive days down
However, you may use the charts to make your own rules. OR ignore this boondoggle altogether

User avatar
Tomanyiron
Posts: 4380
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: Anticipation

Post by Tomanyiron »

Image

Updated September 10, 2021 at Market Close, Friend 337 (down 6), Force 32 (-33)

Image
RULES:
1- FORCE must be above zero to be in S fund
2- FRIEND must have two consecutive days up.

3 Go to G fund when FRIEND has two consecutive days down
However, you may use the charts to make your own rules. OR ignore this boondoggle altogether

User avatar
Tomanyiron
Posts: 4380
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: Anticipation

Post by Tomanyiron »

Image

Updated September 14, 2021 at Market Close, Friend 322, Force -16

Image
RULES:
1- FORCE must be above zero to be in S fund
2- FRIEND must have two consecutive days up.

3 Go to G fund when FRIEND has two consecutive days down
However, you may use the charts to make your own rules. OR ignore this boondoggle altogether

User avatar
Tomanyiron
Posts: 4380
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: Anticipation

Post by Tomanyiron »

Image

Updated September 115, 2021 at Market Close, Friend 322 (same), Force -37

Image
RULES:
1- FORCE must be above zero to be in S fund
2- FRIEND must have two consecutive days up.

3 Go to G fund when FRIEND has two consecutive days down
However, you may use the charts to make your own rules. OR ignore this boondoggle altogether

User avatar
Tomanyiron
Posts: 4380
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: Anticipation

Post by Tomanyiron »

Image
https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-scot ... la-1629680
Updated September 16, 2021 at Market Close, Friend 322 (same), Force -21 (up 16)

Image
RULES:
1- FORCE must be above zero to be in S fund
2- FRIEND must have two consecutive days up.

3 Go to G fund when FRIEND has two consecutive days down
However, you may use the charts to make your own rules. OR ignore this boondoggle altogether

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Fund Prices2021-09-16

FundPriceDayYTD
G $16.66 0.00% 0.94%
F $21.10 -0.18% -0.47%
C $67.28 -0.15% 20.33%
S $85.17 0.23% 14.78%
I $39.75 -0.26% 12.32%
L2065 $14.47 -0.13% 16.60%
L2060 $14.47 -0.13% 16.60%
L2055 $14.47 -0.13% 16.60%
L2050 $29.33 -0.12% 13.66%
L2045 $13.37 -0.12% 12.86%
L2040 $48.74 -0.11% 12.08%
L2035 $12.86 -0.10% 11.15%
L2030 $42.75 -0.09% 10.24%
L2025 $12.07 -0.07% 8.12%
Linc $23.25 -0.04% 4.36%

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