Anticipation

General TSP Discussion.

Moderator: Aitrus

User avatar
Tomanyiron
Posts: 4461
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: Anticipation

Post by Tomanyiron »

evilanne wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 5:11 pm So are you sitting in S or G right now?
I'm in S now, I strayed from Friend/Force rules and did not go to G, when the market started to dip.
Why? Mostly because I anticipated a continuation after this dip. I was putting faith in the patterns I saw in the "Charts for Discussion" thread: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=18901&p=91616#p91616
This chart especially: https://schrts.co/wZixuFVM

User avatar
Tomanyiron
Posts: 4461
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: Anticipation

Post by Tomanyiron »

Image

Updated September 20, 2021 at Market Close, Friend 286, Force -84

Image
RULES:
1- FORCE must be above zero to be in S fund
2- FRIEND must have two consecutive days up
3 Move to G fund when FRIEND has two consecutive days down
However, you may use the charts to make your own rules. OR ignore this boondoggle altogether

User avatar
Tomanyiron
Posts: 4461
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: Anticipation

Post by Tomanyiron »

Image

Updated September 20, 2021 at Market Close, Friend 274, Force -126

Image
RULES:
1- FORCE must be above zero to be in S fund
2- FRIEND must have two consecutive days up
3 Move to G fund when FRIEND has two consecutive days down
However, you may use the charts to make your own rules. OR ignore this boondoggle altogether

User avatar
Tomanyiron
Posts: 4461
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: Anticipation

Post by Tomanyiron »

Image

Updated September 22, 2021 at Market Close, Friend 277, Force -134

Image
RULES:
1- FORCE must be above zero to be in S fund
2- FRIEND must have two consecutive days up
3 Move to G fund when FRIEND has two consecutive days down
However, you may use the charts to make your own rules. OR ignore this boondoggle altogether

tnwhiskey
Posts: 55
Joined: Thu Dec 12, 2019 7:14 pm

Re: Anticipation

Post by tnwhiskey »

Tomanyiron wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:25 am
evilanne wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 5:11 pm So are you sitting in S or G right now?
I'm in S now, I strayed from Friend/Force rules and did not go to G, when the market started to dip.
Why? Mostly because I anticipated a continuation after this dip. I was putting faith in the patterns I saw in the "Charts for Discussion" thread: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=18901&p=91616#p91616
This chart especially: https://schrts.co/wZixuFVM
Your charts are very helpful. I'm going to study them a lot more to find a way to implement them into seasonality. It certainly seems that S feels right at home in the 2nd Keltner Channel. I'm wondering if a good "sell" signal would be near the top of the channel and use either RSI or Williams to confirm.

User avatar
Tomanyiron
Posts: 4461
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: Anticipation

Post by Tomanyiron »

tnwhiskey wrote: Your charts are very helpful. I'm going to study them a lot more to find a way to implement them into seasonality.
Let us know what you come up with. :D
tnwhiskey wrote: I'm wondering if a good "sell" signal would be near the top of the channel and use either RSI or Williams to confirm.
I'm thinking the same thing.

User avatar
Tomanyiron
Posts: 4461
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: Anticipation

Post by Tomanyiron »

Image

Updated September 23, 2021 at Market Close, Friend 280, Force -19

Image
RULES:
1- FORCE must be above zero to be in S fund
2- FRIEND must have two consecutive days up
3 Move to G fund when FRIEND has two consecutive days down
However, you may use the charts to make your own rules. OR ignore this boondoggle altogether

User avatar
Tomanyiron
Posts: 4461
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: Anticipation

Post by Tomanyiron »

Image

Updated September 24, 2021 at Market Close, Friend 280, Force -11

Image
RULES:
1- FORCE must be above zero to be in S fund
2- FRIEND must have two consecutive days up
3 Move to G fund when FRIEND has two consecutive days down
However, you may use the charts to make your own rules. OR ignore this boondoggle altogether

User avatar
Tomanyiron
Posts: 4461
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: Anticipation

Post by Tomanyiron »

Some of the older members might remember I used to have a “Bullish Meter” chart that I posted some times, I shouldn’t have stopped using it. Because if I had considered it before making some of my resent IFTs, I might have not made them when I did.
I use the Keltner Channels for this interpretation of Bullishness.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/k/keltnerchannel.asp
The Keltner Channel was developed by Chester Keltner, a well-known commodity trader, in the early 1960s. This volatility-based indicator makes use of the “envelope theory.” Envelope theory states that the market price will generally fall between the boundaries of the envelope (or channel). Where price is within the band is a way to identify overbought and oversold conditions. When a market’s price is close to the upper band, the market is considered overbought. Conversely, when a market’s price is close to the bottom band, the market is considered oversold.

The Keltner channel is not as well-known as other channel methods, such as the Bollinger Bands. An advantage of Keltner Channel is that market lag is not as pronounced because Keltner Channels are extremely sensitive to fluctuations in volatility.

For this examination, I set the Keltner channels at 3.0 times the 20-day moving average daily range, centered around the 20-period exponential moving average. This is wide enough so that it contains 95 percent of the price action.
However, be aware that overbought and oversold markets can last for an extended periods. They will test your patience. So like all other indicators, don’t rely on this alone.
The 'reading' as of Friday's close was 56.22. I set the colors for:
0-70 Green = OK,
70-85 Yellow = Caution,
85-100 Red =Overbought.
Image

User avatar
evilanne
Posts: 1983
Joined: Thu May 14, 2015 6:52 pm

Re: Anticipation

Post by evilanne »

So are you going to go back to this method now? Combine the 2 or come up with something new?

User avatar
Tomanyiron
Posts: 4461
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: Anticipation

Post by Tomanyiron »

Image

Updated September 27, 2021 at Market Close, Friend 280, Force -4

Image

Image

User avatar
Tomanyiron
Posts: 4461
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: Anticipation

Post by Tomanyiron »

evilanne wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 6:16 pm So are you going to go back to this method now? Combine the 2 or come up with something new?
I never did use the Bullish Meter 100% for IFT decisions.
Right now, I am thinking of a combination, but haven't done enough research for actual buy/sell rules.

User avatar
Tomanyiron
Posts: 4461
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: Anticipation

Post by Tomanyiron »

Image

Updated September 28, 2021 at Market Close, Friend 253, Force -14

Image

Image

User avatar
IRQVET
Posts: 127
Joined: Tue May 03, 2016 12:45 am

Re: Anticipation

Post by IRQVET »

Hope the market picks up, cause life has got in the way and I wasn't paying attention as my account that went into the negative return territory. No bueno.

:shock:
Operation Iraqi Freedom Veteran
Disclaimer: The contents of this thread are known to the state of California to cause cancer. (As they always seem to know more than the rest of us)

User avatar
Tomanyiron
Posts: 4461
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: Anticipation

Post by Tomanyiron »

Image

Updated September 29, 2021 at Market Close, Friend 234, Force -24

Image

Image
RULES:
1- FORCE must be above zero to be in S fund
2- FRIEND must have two consecutive days up
3 Move to G fund when FRIEND has two consecutive days down
However, you may use the charts to make your own rules. OR ignore this boondoggle altogether

Post Reply

Fund Prices2021-11-26

FundPriceDayYTD
G $16.71 0.01% 1.24%
F $20.92 0.78% -1.29%
C $69.26 -2.27% 23.88%
S $84.86 -2.44% 14.36%
I $37.89 -2.19% 7.07%
L2065 $14.44 -2.24% 16.31%
L2060 $14.44 -2.24% 16.31%
L2055 $14.44 -2.24% 16.31%
L2050 $29.27 -1.79% 13.42%
L2045 $13.35 -1.67% 12.66%
L2040 $48.68 -1.56% 11.93%
L2035 $12.85 -1.43% 11.06%
L2030 $42.73 -1.31% 10.19%
L2025 $12.07 -0.95% 8.13%
Linc $23.29 -0.47% 4.52%

Live Charts

Pending Allocations

Under development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".