Could you double-check the YTD on this one please?
Thanks for the updates.
Moderator: Aitrus
September seasonal strategy mix available? Thanks.Aitrus wrote: ↑Sat Jul 24, 2021 12:12 pm For August 2021
Last chance to move: Friday, 30 July before noon EST
For this coming August, the individual funds have performed on average as follows:
G Fund
Since 1988: 0.39%
Last 20 years: 0.29%
Last 10 years: 0.18%
Last 5 years: 0.19%
August is arguably the second best month for the G Fund. The 2020 return was 0.05%.
F Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 0.5% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.70%, PNR 68%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.85%, PNR 75%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.53%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.65%, PNR 60%
August is a pretty solid month for the F Fund. Arguably the first or second month of the year, depending on the time frame you’re looking at.
The best years were 2019 (2.60%), 1991 (2.12%) and 2004 (1.88%). The worst years were 1989 (-1.48%), 1990 (-1.42%) and 1997 (-0.86%).
C Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR -0.45%, PNR 61%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.02%, PNR 65%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.04%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 1.81%, PNR 80%
The C Fund has the worst time of the entire year in August and September, with the two months often fighting over who is worse. The return for 2020 was 7.19% (the highest Aug return in the C Fund’s history), which really pulls the last 5 year calculations upward.
The best years were 2020 (7.19%), 2000 (6.19%) and 1994 (4.11%). The worst years were 1998 (-14.47%), 1990 (-8.65%) and 2001 (-6.27%).
S Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.08%, PNR 61%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.09%, PNR 55%
Last 10 years: CAGR -0.13%, PNR 50%
Last 5 years: CAGR 1.52%, PNR 60%
The S Fund does a smidgen better than the C Fund in August, but that’s not saying much. August is still the worst month of the year for the S Fund. Like the C FUnd, the Last 5 year calculation is dragged significatnly upward due to the 7.20% return in 2020.
The best years were 2000 (11.16%), 2020 (7.20%) and 1996 (5.40%). The worst years were 1998 (-19.38%), 1990 (-10.05%) and 2011 (-8.12%).
I Fund - A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR -1.39%, PNR 42%
Last 20 years: CAGR -0.56%, PNR 40%
Last 10 years: CAGR -1.39%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.27%, PNR 40%
August is easily hands-down the worst month of the year for the I Fund. No other month is even close to being this bad. I’m not sure about what causes this month to be so bad for overseas markets, but whatever it is, I want no part of it.
The best years were 1992 (6.09%), 1993 (5.27%), and 2020 (5.12%). The worst years were 1998 (-12.51%), 1990 (-9.84%), and 2011 (-9.03%).
Note: For CAGR explanation, see 2nd post in the thread. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months vs Negative Months. A Fund that was positive in March for 4 out of 10 years would have a PNR of 40%.
Individual Seasonal Mix Allocations
Here is where the various seasonal mix allocations are going to for August 2021.
Jahbulon’s Basic Seasonal Mix: Move to the F Fund.
gclapper’s M3 Mix: Move to the F Fund
TSPCenter.com’s Seasonal Mix: Remain in the F Fund.
tmj100’s Mix: Move to the F Fund.
Boltman’s Mix: Move to the F Fund.
Chindsey’s Mix #1: Move to the F Fund
Sell in May and Go Away: Remain in the G Fund.
G All Year, S in Dec: Remain in the G Fund.
All the active Mixes run to the F Fund for August. That alone should tell you how strong the anti-market trends and history is around this time of year, as if the stats above weren’t enough.
Working on it. Should be up by this evening or tomorrow.
Source:In its report Friday, S&P ruled that the U.S. fell short:”The downgrade reflects our opinion that the ... plan that Congress and the Administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government's medium-term debt dynamics.”
...
“The political brinksmanship of recent months highlights what we see as America's governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective, and less predictable than what we previously believed.”
However, one of S&P's explicit criticisms of the compromise was that it didn't address the biggest drivers of the nation's debt -- Social Security and Medicare -- and didn't allow for additional tax revenue.
Fund | Price | Day | YTD |
G | $18.15 | 0.05% | 1.05% |
F | $19.08 | -0.06% | -0.74% |
C | $82.21 | 0.11% | 10.55% |
S | $82.43 | 0.30% | 6.92% |
I | $42.57 | -0.24% | 5.95% |
L2065 | $16.38 | 0.02% | 8.37% |
L2060 | $16.39 | 0.02% | 8.38% |
L2055 | $16.39 | 0.02% | 8.38% |
L2050 | $32.73 | 0.01% | 6.95% |
L2045 | $14.91 | 0.02% | 6.58% |
L2040 | $54.38 | 0.02% | 6.22% |
L2035 | $14.34 | 0.02% | 5.79% |
L2030 | $47.67 | 0.02% | 5.38% |
L2025 | $13.15 | 0.03% | 3.43% |
Linc | $25.61 | 0.03% | 2.82% |