Seasonal Musings 2021

General TSP Discussion.

Moderator: Aitrus

bert1988
Posts: 2
Joined: Fri Apr 28, 2017 2:55 pm

Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Post by bert1988 »

Thank you Aitrus...All your hard work is very much appreciated..Love this post!!

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Aitrus
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Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 5:03 pm

Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Post by Aitrus »

Seasonal Strategy Results for April 2021

Note: A "good" month for the F Fund is CAGR 0.5% or better, and PNR 70% or better. A "good" month for C, S and I Funds is CAGR 1% or better, and PNR 70% or better. See 2nd post in the thread for description of CAGR. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months to Negative Months.

General Funds
G Fund:
0.13%, 0.39% Year to Date (YTD), PNR remains 100%
Apr Total CAGR = 0.38%
Apr 20 year CAGR = 0.24%
Apr 10 year CAGR = 0.16%
Apr 5 year CAGR = 0.17%

The G Fund continues the fight back to where the monthly returns were prior to Jan 2019, and it’s a little over halfway back to that point. 2020’s April return was 0.07%.

F Fund:
0.82%, -2.56% YTD
Apr Total CAGR = 0.44%, PNR 68%
Apr 20 year CAGR = 0.52%, PNR 75%
Apr 10 year CAGR = 0.58%, PNR 80%
Apr 5 year CAGR = 0.54%, PNR 80%

This was a nice return for the F Fund, which has seen the worst Jan-Mar start to the year in it’s history. The last decade or so has been quite nice to the F Fund in April. The run of years from 2009 to present has only two negative years (2015 and 2018). 2020’s April return was 1.78%.

C Fund: 5.33%, 11.84% YTD
Apr Total CAGR = 2.17%, PNR 79%
Apr 20 year CAGR = 2.45%, PNR 80%
Apr 10 year CAGR = 2.63%, PNR 90%
Apr 5 year CAGR = 4.63%, PNR 100%

The C Fund normally has a strong tendency in April, and this year was no exception. This is the sixth higest return in this month’s history. 2020’s April return was 12.81%.

S Fund: 4.23%, 12.35% YTD
Apr Total CAGR = 2.01%, PNR 74%
Apr 20 year CAGR = 2.54%, PNR 70%
Apr 10 year CAGR = 2.17%, PNR 70%
Apr 5 year CAGR = 4.89%, PNR 100%

April is a solid month for the S Fund, normally the third best of the year. This year’s return was twice what the historical average tells us to expect. 2020’s April return was 15.81%.

I Fund: 3.09%, 6.72% YTD
Apr Total CAGR = 2.65%, PNR 82%
Apr 20 year CAGR = 3.10%, PNR 80%
Apr 10 year CAGR = 2.78%, PNR 90%
Apr 5 year CAGR = 3.40%, PNR 100%

April is hands-down the best month of the year for the I Fund, and that reputation was solidified even further by this year’s return. It has now had a straight nine years of positive returns. The I Fund’s April performance is so good that this month’s respectable 3.09% return is just the 15th best out of a total 34 year history. 2020’s April return was 6.42%

Currently Tracked Seasonal Strategies
Jahbulon's Basic Mix: C Fund in Apr (5.33%), 14.85% YTD, PIP 46.89%
gclapper’s M3 Mix: I Fund in Apr (3.09%), 12.41% YTD, PIP 39.26%
TSPCenter.com's Default Setting: C Fund in Apr (5.33%), 9.25% YTD, PIP 37.33%
tmj100’s Mix: I Fund in Apr (3.09%), 4.77% YTD, PIP 42.83%
Boltman's Mix: S Fund in Apr (3.09%), 0.48% YTD, PIP 34.45%
Chindsey’s Mix #1: I Fund in Apr (3.09%), 7.27% YTD, PIP 40.36%
Sell in May and Go Away: C Fund in Apr (5.33%), 11.84% YTD, PIP 25.78%
F all year, S in Dec Mix: F Fund in Apr (0.82%), -2.56% YTD

Everybody in stocks made some nice progress this month, with a couple broaching the double-digit mark. All 12-month PIPs for the Mixes are well above 30% even though we are no longer counting the massive April 2020 returns. The system continues to perform well.
Seasonal Musings 2021: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=18757
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

Kal1981
Posts: 41
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2020 8:12 pm

Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Post by Kal1981 »

Any one following the TSPcalc strategy and sitting in G fund? Weeks been a blood bath.

pilotric99
Posts: 8
Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2012 9:02 pm

Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Post by pilotric99 »

In 119156, just moved to G, I think other strategies do the same. This was a tough move for me because I'm afraid I will miss the bounce back but I told myself to "stick to the plan." That said, the strategy moves back to S on or about the 21st.

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bamablue
Posts: 229
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2012 11:40 am

Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Post by bamablue »

I abandoned ship on my plan (88676) Friday. With the Colonial pipeline mess, inflation worries, weak jobs report and Israel all brewing, I saw a big chance for a decline. I've been wrong many times before, but in this case -- evidence that a blind squirrel can find a nut if he keeps looking...

Regularguy
Posts: 187
Joined: Tue Sep 24, 2013 11:39 am

Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Post by Regularguy »

Why didn't I stay in one more day UGGGG!

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bamablue
Posts: 229
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2012 11:40 am

Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Post by bamablue »

Regularguy wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 3:54 pm Why didn't I stay in one more day UGGGG!
Don't kick yourself yet... Today may have just been a dead-cat bounce. I don't see much of the market influences shifting far enough for a sustained move upward.

Regularguy
Posts: 187
Joined: Tue Sep 24, 2013 11:39 am

Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Post by Regularguy »

bamablue wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 4:58 pm
Regularguy wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 3:54 pm Why didn't I stay in one more day UGGGG!
Don't kick yourself yet... Today may have just been a dead-cat bounce. I don't see much of the market influences shifting far enough for a sustained move upward.
Thank You for the Moral support. :-)

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Aitrus
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Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Post by Aitrus »

For June 2020
Last chance to move: Friday, 28 May before noon EST (note: Monday the 31st is a holiday)

For this coming June, the individual funds have performed on average as follows:

G Fund
Since 1988: 0.40%
Last 20 years: 0.26%
Last 10 years: 0.17%
Last 5 years: 0.17%

June is a so-so month for the G Fund. The 2020 return was 0.06%.

F Fund
– A “good” month is a CAGR of 0.5% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.61%, PNR 67%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.24%, PNR 60%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.07%, PNR 50%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.70%, PNR 60%

June isn’t a good month for the F Fund. The PNR’s are so-so, and the CAGRs are likewise nothing stellar. Still, at this time of year, it’s better to bet on a horse that has more finishes than one that comes up lame more often than not.

The best years were 1989 (3.19%), 2000 (2.07%) and 1988 (1.97%). The worst years were 2013 (-1.53%), 2015 (-1.53%) and 1999 (-0.33%).

C Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.07%, PNR 61%
Last 20 years: CAGR -0.54%, PNR 60%
Last 10 years: CAGR 1.14%, PNR 70%
Last 5 years: CAGR 2.07%, PNR 100%

Up until 2019 June is pretty much the worst month of the year for the C Fund (that honor now belongs to August). The massive return of 7.04% for 2019 and a COVID recovery upswing in 2020 have changed some of the more recent metrics for this month. Still, the PNRs aren’t all that great.

The best years were 2019 (7.04%), 1999 (5.54%) and 1997 (4.45%). The worst years were 2008 (-8.41%), 2002 (-7.10%) and 2010 (-5.24%).

S Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.68%, PNR 61%
Last 20 years: CAGR -0.02%, PNR 60%
Last 10 years: CAGR 1.71%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 2.740%, PNR 60%

June is a pretty ugly month for the S Fund, but an outside good 2019 and 2020 has pulled up the numbers a bit from previous reporting.

The best years were 2000 (12.01%), 2019 (6.80%) and 1988 (6.17%). The worst years were 2008 (-7.63%), 2010 (-6.90%) and 2002 (-6.67%).

I Fund - A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR -0.42%, PNR 45%
Last 20 years: CAGR -0.34%, PNR 45%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.54%, PNR 40%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.88%, PNR 40%

Despite 2019 having the second best return on record followed by a strong 2020, June is still the second or third worst month for the year for the I Fund.

The best years were 2012 (7.08%), 2019 (5.94%), and 1997 (5.39%). The worst years were 2008 (-8.15%), 1991 (-7.48%), and 1992 (-4.90%).

Note: For CAGR explanation, see 2nd post in the thread. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months vs Negative Months. A Fund that was positive in March for 4 out of 10 years would have a PNR of 40%.

Individual Seasonal Mix Allocations
Here is where the various seasonal mix allocations are going to for June 2020.


Jahbulon’s Basic Seasonal Mix: Move to the F Fund.
gclapper’s M3 Mix: Move to the F Fund
TSPCenter.com’s Seasonal Mix: Move to the F Fund.
tmj100’s Mix: Move to the F Fund.
Boltman’s Mix: Move to the F Fund.
Chindsey’s Mix #1: Move to the G Fund
Sell in May and Go Away: Remain in the G Fund.
G All Year, S in Dec: Remain in the G Fund.

All of the Mixes move to safety for June. Smart move, considering the history of the market at the beginning of summer.
Seasonal Musings 2021: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=18757
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

pilotric99
Posts: 8
Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2012 9:02 pm

Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Post by pilotric99 »

Aitrus, as many have said previously, thank you. With the recent 4-6% market correction in mid-May, I am weighing staying in the S fund, which correlates with a strategy I am tracking but not following (148982). My current strategy moves to G and then F for June (119156). Tough call. Your email moves me towards staying with my more conservative strategy of G/F (119156).

md2018
Posts: 145
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2010 1:17 pm

Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Post by md2018 »

Aitrus, I think I’ve seen this before, but do you have the average stats for the first trading day of each month?

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Aitrus
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Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 5:03 pm

Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Post by Aitrus »

pilotric99, Sounds like some sound reasoning to me. And thanks for the kind words.

md2018, No, I don't have that kind of data. All my data points are the end-of-month returns as published by TSP, and my assessment / calculations are based off of them.
Seasonal Musings 2021: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=18757
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

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Aitrus
Moderator
Posts: 2130
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 5:03 pm

Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Post by Aitrus »

Seasonal Strategy Results for May 2021

Note: A "good" month for the F Fund is CAGR 0.5% or better, and PNR 70% or better. A "good" month for C, S and I Funds is CAGR 1% or better, and PNR 70% or better. See 2nd post in the thread for description of CAGR. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months to Negative Months.

General Funds
G Fund:
0.13%, 0.52% Year to Date (YTD), PNR remains 100%
May Total CAGR = 0.40%
May 20 year CAGR = 0.25%
May 10 year CAGR = 0.16%
May 5 year CAGR = 0.17%

Compared to the last year or so, the G Fund had a decent return for May 2021. This marks three months in a row that the G Fund has seen returns of over 0.1%. At this point, the G Fund is -0.02% behind where 2020 was at this point, and -0.56% behind where 2019 was at. If the G Fund keeps this pace for the rest of the year, it will finish up somewhere between 2020’s return of 0.98% and 2019’s return of 2.23%. My guess is somewhere between 1.25 - 1.50%. 2020’s May return was 0.06%.

F Fund: 0.34%, -2.23% YTD
May Total CAGR = 0.62%, PNR 68%
May 20 year CAGR = 0.45%, PNR 70%
May 10 year CAGR = 0.42%, PNR 80%
May 5 year CAGR = 0.82%, PNR 100%

This month’s F Fund return was a bit below average. The F Fund has now had a May positive return streak of 6 years, which is the best on record for the month. The previous record was 5 years, spanning 1989 - 1993. 2020’s May return was 0.46%.

C Fund: 0.69%, 12.61% YTD
May Total CAGR = 1.21%, PNR 74%
May 20 year CAGR = 0.54%, PNR 70%
May 10 year CAGR = 0.41%, PNR 80%
May 5 year CAGR = 0.51%, PNR 80%

Over the past 10 - 20 years May has been a borderline month, so this return is about average. 2020’s May return was 4.76%.

S Fund: -0.66%, 11.60% YTD
May Total CAGR = 1.14%, PNR 62%
May 20 year CAGR = 0.93%, PNR 60%
May 10 year CAGR = 0.51%, PNR 60%
May 5 year CAGR = 0.90%, PNR 40%

The S Fund normally is just kinda so-so in May, so this negative return isn’t all that surprising. 2020’s May return was 8.79%.

I Fund: 3.61%, 10.57% YTD
May Total CAGR = -0.13%, PNR 47%
May 20 year CAGR = -0.23%, PNR 55%
May 10 year CAGR = -0.90%, PNR 50%
May 5 year CAGR = 0.94%, PNR 60%

The I Fund normally performs very poorly in May, so the fact that it did well when the rest of the market was very “meh” is surprising. This is the 8th best May return for the I Fund. 2020’s return was 4.50%

Currently Tracked Seasonal Strategies
Jahbulon's Basic Mix: C Fund in May (0.69%), 15.64% YTD, PIP 41.18%
gclapper’s M3 Mix: C Fund in May (0.69%), 13.18% YTD, PIP 33.85%
TSPCenter.com's Default Setting: C Fund in May (0.69%), 10.00% YTD, PIP 31.99%
tmj100’s Mix: C Fund in May (0.69%), 5.50% YTD, PIP 37.28%
Boltman's Mix: S Fund in May (-0.66%), -0.18% YTD, PIP 22.77%
Chindsey’s Mix #1: C Fund in May (0.69%), 8.01% YTD, PIP 34.91%
Sell in May and Go Away: G Fund in May (0.13%), 11.98% YTD, PIP 25.87%
F all year, S in Dec Mix: F Fund in May (0.34%), -2.23% YTD

Most everybody had a modest increase this month. Nothing spectacular, and better than a loss or G Fund mediocrity.
Seasonal Musings 2021: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=18757
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

Post Reply

Fund Prices2021-06-18

FundPriceDayYTD
G $16.61 0.00% 0.60%
F $20.88 0.32% -1.49%
C $62.45 -1.31% 11.69%
S $82.88 -1.28% 11.70%
I $38.60 -1.78% 9.07%
L2065 $13.75 -1.45% 10.74%
L2060 $13.75 -1.45% 10.74%
L2055 $13.75 -1.45% 10.74%
L2050 $28.08 -1.17% 8.79%
L2045 $12.83 -1.10% 8.27%
L2040 $46.86 -1.03% 7.76%
L2035 $12.40 -0.94% 7.17%
L2030 $41.33 -0.86% 6.58%
L2025 $11.75 -0.66% 5.27%
Linc $22.90 -0.31% 2.77%

Live Charts

Pending Allocations

Under development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".