Seasonal Musings 2021

General TSP Discussion.

Moderator: Aitrus

bert1988
Posts: 2
Joined: Fri Apr 28, 2017 2:55 pm

Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Post by bert1988 »

Thank you Aitrus...All your hard work is very much appreciated..Love this post!!

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Aitrus
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Posts: 2109
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 5:03 pm

Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Post by Aitrus »

Seasonal Strategy Results for April 2021

Note: A "good" month for the F Fund is CAGR 0.5% or better, and PNR 70% or better. A "good" month for C, S and I Funds is CAGR 1% or better, and PNR 70% or better. See 2nd post in the thread for description of CAGR. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months to Negative Months.

General Funds
G Fund:
0.13%, 0.39% Year to Date (YTD), PNR remains 100%
Apr Total CAGR = 0.38%
Apr 20 year CAGR = 0.24%
Apr 10 year CAGR = 0.16%
Apr 5 year CAGR = 0.17%

The G Fund continues the fight back to where the monthly returns were prior to Jan 2019, and it’s a little over halfway back to that point. 2020’s April return was 0.07%.

F Fund:
0.82%, -2.56% YTD
Apr Total CAGR = 0.44%, PNR 68%
Apr 20 year CAGR = 0.52%, PNR 75%
Apr 10 year CAGR = 0.58%, PNR 80%
Apr 5 year CAGR = 0.54%, PNR 80%

This was a nice return for the F Fund, which has seen the worst Jan-Mar start to the year in it’s history. The last decade or so has been quite nice to the F Fund in April. The run of years from 2009 to present has only two negative years (2015 and 2018). 2020’s April return was 1.78%.

C Fund: 5.33%, 11.84% YTD
Apr Total CAGR = 2.17%, PNR 79%
Apr 20 year CAGR = 2.45%, PNR 80%
Apr 10 year CAGR = 2.63%, PNR 90%
Apr 5 year CAGR = 4.63%, PNR 100%

The C Fund normally has a strong tendency in April, and this year was no exception. This is the sixth higest return in this month’s history. 2020’s April return was 12.81%.

S Fund: 4.23%, 12.35% YTD
Apr Total CAGR = 2.01%, PNR 74%
Apr 20 year CAGR = 2.54%, PNR 70%
Apr 10 year CAGR = 2.17%, PNR 70%
Apr 5 year CAGR = 4.89%, PNR 100%

April is a solid month for the S Fund, normally the third best of the year. This year’s return was twice what the historical average tells us to expect. 2020’s April return was 15.81%.

I Fund: 3.09%, 6.72% YTD
Apr Total CAGR = 2.65%, PNR 82%
Apr 20 year CAGR = 3.10%, PNR 80%
Apr 10 year CAGR = 2.78%, PNR 90%
Apr 5 year CAGR = 3.40%, PNR 100%

April is hands-down the best month of the year for the I Fund, and that reputation was solidified even further by this year’s return. It has now had a straight nine years of positive returns. The I Fund’s April performance is so good that this month’s respectable 3.09% return is just the 15th best out of a total 34 year history. 2020’s April return was 6.42%

Currently Tracked Seasonal Strategies
Jahbulon's Basic Mix: C Fund in Apr (5.33%), 14.85% YTD, PIP 46.89%
gclapper’s M3 Mix: I Fund in Apr (3.09%), 12.41% YTD, PIP 39.26%
TSPCenter.com's Default Setting: C Fund in Apr (5.33%), 9.25% YTD, PIP 37.33%
tmj100’s Mix: I Fund in Apr (3.09%), 4.77% YTD, PIP 42.83%
Boltman's Mix: S Fund in Apr (3.09%), 0.48% YTD, PIP 34.45%
Chindsey’s Mix #1: I Fund in Apr (3.09%), 7.27% YTD, PIP 40.36%
Sell in May and Go Away: C Fund in Apr (5.33%), 11.84% YTD, PIP 25.78%
F all year, S in Dec Mix: F Fund in Apr (0.82%), -2.56% YTD

Everybody in stocks made some nice progress this month, with a couple broaching the double-digit mark. All 12-month PIPs for the Mixes are well above 30% even though we are no longer counting the massive April 2020 returns. The system continues to perform well.
Seasonal Musings 2021: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=18757
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

Kal1981
Posts: 41
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2020 8:12 pm

Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Post by Kal1981 »

Any one following the TSPcalc strategy and sitting in G fund? Weeks been a blood bath.

pilotric99
Posts: 5
Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2012 9:02 pm

Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Post by pilotric99 »

In 119156, just moved to G, I think other strategies do the same. This was a tough move for me because I'm afraid I will miss the bounce back but I told myself to "stick to the plan." That said, the strategy moves back to S on or about the 21st.

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bamablue
Posts: 225
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2012 11:40 am

Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Post by bamablue »

I abandoned ship on my plan (88676) Friday. With the Colonial pipeline mess, inflation worries, weak jobs report and Israel all brewing, I saw a big chance for a decline. I've been wrong many times before, but in this case -- evidence that a blind squirrel can find a nut if he keeps looking...

Regularguy
Posts: 186
Joined: Tue Sep 24, 2013 11:39 am

Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Post by Regularguy »

Why didn't I stay in one more day UGGGG!

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bamablue
Posts: 225
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2012 11:40 am

Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Post by bamablue »

Regularguy wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 3:54 pm Why didn't I stay in one more day UGGGG!
Don't kick yourself yet... Today may have just been a dead-cat bounce. I don't see much of the market influences shifting far enough for a sustained move upward.

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Fund Prices2021-05-14

FundPriceDayYTD
G $16.58 0.00% 0.46%
F $20.64 0.21% -2.63%
C $62.46 1.50% 11.72%
S $80.52 2.61% 8.51%
I $38.26 1.69% 8.11%
L2065 $13.64 1.72% 9.91%
L2060 $13.64 1.72% 9.92%
L2055 $13.64 1.72% 9.92%
L2050 $27.87 1.44% 8.00%
L2045 $12.74 1.35% 7.52%
L2040 $46.56 1.26% 7.07%
L2035 $12.32 1.15% 6.53%
L2030 $41.10 1.05% 6.00%
L2025 $11.69 0.81% 4.78%
Linc $22.82 0.40% 2.44%

Pending Allocations

Under development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".

What else

"Don't ever half-ass two things. Whole-ass one thing."
- Ron Swanson