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Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Posted: Tue Apr 27, 2021 6:06 pm
by bert1988
Thank you Aitrus...All your hard work is very much appreciated..Love this post!!

Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Posted: Fri May 07, 2021 11:16 am
by Aitrus
Seasonal Strategy Results for April 2021

Note: A "good" month for the F Fund is CAGR 0.5% or better, and PNR 70% or better. A "good" month for C, S and I Funds is CAGR 1% or better, and PNR 70% or better. See 2nd post in the thread for description of CAGR. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months to Negative Months.

General Funds
G Fund:
0.13%, 0.39% Year to Date (YTD), PNR remains 100%
Apr Total CAGR = 0.38%
Apr 20 year CAGR = 0.24%
Apr 10 year CAGR = 0.16%
Apr 5 year CAGR = 0.17%

The G Fund continues the fight back to where the monthly returns were prior to Jan 2019, and it’s a little over halfway back to that point. 2020’s April return was 0.07%.

F Fund:
0.82%, -2.56% YTD
Apr Total CAGR = 0.44%, PNR 68%
Apr 20 year CAGR = 0.52%, PNR 75%
Apr 10 year CAGR = 0.58%, PNR 80%
Apr 5 year CAGR = 0.54%, PNR 80%

This was a nice return for the F Fund, which has seen the worst Jan-Mar start to the year in it’s history. The last decade or so has been quite nice to the F Fund in April. The run of years from 2009 to present has only two negative years (2015 and 2018). 2020’s April return was 1.78%.

C Fund: 5.33%, 11.84% YTD
Apr Total CAGR = 2.17%, PNR 79%
Apr 20 year CAGR = 2.45%, PNR 80%
Apr 10 year CAGR = 2.63%, PNR 90%
Apr 5 year CAGR = 4.63%, PNR 100%

The C Fund normally has a strong tendency in April, and this year was no exception. This is the sixth higest return in this month’s history. 2020’s April return was 12.81%.

S Fund: 4.23%, 12.35% YTD
Apr Total CAGR = 2.01%, PNR 74%
Apr 20 year CAGR = 2.54%, PNR 70%
Apr 10 year CAGR = 2.17%, PNR 70%
Apr 5 year CAGR = 4.89%, PNR 100%

April is a solid month for the S Fund, normally the third best of the year. This year’s return was twice what the historical average tells us to expect. 2020’s April return was 15.81%.

I Fund: 3.09%, 6.72% YTD
Apr Total CAGR = 2.65%, PNR 82%
Apr 20 year CAGR = 3.10%, PNR 80%
Apr 10 year CAGR = 2.78%, PNR 90%
Apr 5 year CAGR = 3.40%, PNR 100%

April is hands-down the best month of the year for the I Fund, and that reputation was solidified even further by this year’s return. It has now had a straight nine years of positive returns. The I Fund’s April performance is so good that this month’s respectable 3.09% return is just the 15th best out of a total 34 year history. 2020’s April return was 6.42%

Currently Tracked Seasonal Strategies
Jahbulon's Basic Mix: C Fund in Apr (5.33%), 14.85% YTD, PIP 46.89%
gclapper’s M3 Mix: I Fund in Apr (3.09%), 12.41% YTD, PIP 39.26%
TSPCenter.com's Default Setting: C Fund in Apr (5.33%), 9.25% YTD, PIP 37.33%
tmj100’s Mix: I Fund in Apr (3.09%), 4.77% YTD, PIP 42.83%
Boltman's Mix: S Fund in Apr (3.09%), 0.48% YTD, PIP 34.45%
Chindsey’s Mix #1: I Fund in Apr (3.09%), 7.27% YTD, PIP 40.36%
Sell in May and Go Away: C Fund in Apr (5.33%), 11.84% YTD, PIP 25.78%
F all year, S in Dec Mix: F Fund in Apr (0.82%), -2.56% YTD

Everybody in stocks made some nice progress this month, with a couple broaching the double-digit mark. All 12-month PIPs for the Mixes are well above 30% even though we are no longer counting the massive April 2020 returns. The system continues to perform well.

Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Posted: Wed May 12, 2021 11:00 pm
by Kal1981
Any one following the TSPcalc strategy and sitting in G fund? Weeks been a blood bath.

Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Posted: Thu May 13, 2021 5:56 am
by pilotric99
In 119156, just moved to G, I think other strategies do the same. This was a tough move for me because I'm afraid I will miss the bounce back but I told myself to "stick to the plan." That said, the strategy moves back to S on or about the 21st.

Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Posted: Thu May 13, 2021 6:55 am
by bamablue
I abandoned ship on my plan (88676) Friday. With the Colonial pipeline mess, inflation worries, weak jobs report and Israel all brewing, I saw a big chance for a decline. I've been wrong many times before, but in this case -- evidence that a blind squirrel can find a nut if he keeps looking...

Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Posted: Thu May 13, 2021 3:54 pm
by Regularguy
Why didn't I stay in one more day UGGGG!

Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Posted: Thu May 13, 2021 4:58 pm
by bamablue
Regularguy wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 3:54 pm Why didn't I stay in one more day UGGGG!
Don't kick yourself yet... Today may have just been a dead-cat bounce. I don't see much of the market influences shifting far enough for a sustained move upward.