S Fund Bubble??

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Chulke
Posts: 302
Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 10:25 am

S Fund Bubble??

Post by Chulke »

This S fund is on a crazy tare upwards....Is this a meltup? Is it a bubble? When does the bubble pop or the meltup turn down?

What I do know is the action is starting to make me nervous!

Thoughts?



Cheers!
Cheers!

Current Strat: 85660
Current PIP: 24.89

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bloobs
Posts: 1067
Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 8:00 pm

Re: S Fund Bubble??

Post by bloobs »

Chulke wrote: Tue Feb 09, 2021 2:21 pm This S fund is on a crazy tare upwards....Is this a meltup? Is it a bubble? When does the bubble pop or the meltup turn down?

What I do know is the action is starting to make me nervous!

Thoughts?



Cheers!
When Pablo or Aston sells 8-)

md2018
Posts: 136
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2010 1:17 pm

Re: S Fund Bubble??

Post by md2018 »

The S fund is up about 40% since Nov 1. I have been in and out waiting for the big fall. So I only made 10% during the period (but that ‘s a year’s worth of gains for me). I am still in 15% S and 15% C to hedge for further gain. But all it will take is some world wide disaster (tidal wave, earthquake, terrorist attack) or talk of increasing corporate taxes, or raising interest rates for it to come tumbling down.

PhilJohn
Posts: 321
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2017 10:38 am

Re: S Fund Bubble??

Post by PhilJohn »

im up 13 points already this year. Ill be 10% S, 90% G as of tomorrow. Im stepping away from my dailey but I figure If Im in a position to wait for a corretion, I might as well. I think a lot of members had huge returns last season doing that.

3240moy
Posts: 10
Joined: Fri Aug 30, 2013 4:01 pm

Re: S Fund Bubble??

Post by 3240moy »

I felt same as PhilJohn and took 90% out of play as I see S in a parabolic curve and those don't end well and move to quick for TSP transfers to safety. Hopefully this decision is based on risk to reward value and not emotion. Hopefully there will be some pullback to relieve pressure and a chance to jump back in.

searight
Posts: 81
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2013 8:56 am

Re: S Fund Bubble??

Post by searight »

I feel like the S is on a roller coaster that has gone too high. I am looking forward to jumping to the F fund on the 12th day of the month next Tuesday per my seasonal strategy. This also correlates to the schedule of the congress figuring out the $2 Trillion stimulus bill which is pushing the S right now. S is going up while they work it, but will drop a little once it goes official. "Buy the rumor, sell the News"

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IRQVET
Posts: 85
Joined: Tue May 03, 2016 12:45 am

Re: S Fund Bubble??

Post by IRQVET »

I am fighting the urge to dump S. I just have a bad feeling, as in the past I've lost almost all my gains hanging into a fund longer than I should. I had this feeling before and ignored it, and regretted it ever since.

Am I wrong? Given the topic, I can't be the only one . . .
Operation Iraqi Freedom Veteran
Disclaimer: The contents of this thread are known to the state of California to cause cancer.

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ArrieS
Posts: 1072
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2012 10:56 am

Re: S Fund Bubble??

Post by ArrieS »

"Am I wrong? Given the topic, I can't be the only one . . ."

Yep.

They're all dead.

Small businesses. They're all dead, mom and pop shops are all dead. Obviously I'm exaggerating but the damage is extensive to non-publicly traded companies. It will be publicly traded small to medium size businesses that will benefit from this destruction.

All those family owned restaurants? Mostly gone, so you feel like Italian at your favorite place? Ooops, they're dead, looks like it's Olive Garden for you sucker.

It's going to be like this for awhile as those businesses take awhile to come back.
OCTOBER: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February. - Pudd'nhead Wilson's Calendar

9wecooper9
Posts: 3
Joined: Thu Jan 28, 2021 1:26 pm

Re: S Fund Bubble??

Post by 9wecooper9 »

i understand your fear that the S fund has gone up too much too fast, however, you have to keep in mind that the smaill cap stocks are practically always the first to come out of a recovery the strongest with the large caps joining later albeit at a lower amount. If you jump now, you could lose out on some significant more gains. Perhaps par down your percentage of small caps if you fear the worst, but there are typically warning signs (eg, rising VIX, bad economic news) before they really crash. These warning signs are not out there with our current Fed policies, low rates, and lack of bad economic news. Valuations (P/E ratios) have gone out of whack (high) with all the money being put out there by the Feds and the low interest rates. But relative to bond rates, stock dividends are still generally higher and that is partially why stocks keep going higher. This is not to say there won't be some minor pullbacks in the near term, just due to the fear of investors such as yourself. As brokers always recommend, stay the course on your asset allocation by rebalancing when things get out of whack. I'm sitting back, relaxing, and riding the wave until there are some obvious bad signs, but then I keep only 12 percent of my portfolio in the S fund so I don't get crushed should it crash without any warning.

Brandon28
Posts: 17
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2020 1:01 am

Re: S Fund Bubble??

Post by Brandon28 »

ArrieS wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 1:47 am "Am I wrong? Given the topic, I can't be the only one . . ."

Yep.

They're all dead.

Small businesses. They're all dead, mom and pop shops are all dead. Obviously I'm exaggerating but the damage is extensive to non-publicly traded companies. It will be publicly traded small to medium size businesses that will benefit from this destruction.

All those family owned restaurants? Mostly gone, so you feel like Italian at your favorite place? Ooops, they're dead, looks like it's Olive Garden for you sucker.

It's going to be like this for awhile as those businesses take awhile to come back.
Unfortunately the Olive Garden by me shut down. If I want Italian it's down to Marcos Pizza or Dominos.

PhilJohn
Posts: 321
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2017 10:38 am

Re: S Fund Bubble??

Post by PhilJohn »

OG has good salad.

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IRQVET
Posts: 85
Joined: Tue May 03, 2016 12:45 am

Re: S Fund Bubble??

Post by IRQVET »

Made the jump out of the S-Fund today, moved it over into G/ C fund. I'm hoping the C-Fund makes a run because it seems low right now.
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Disclaimer: The contents of this thread are known to the state of California to cause cancer.

VAmanBulls
Posts: 224
Joined: Wed Jul 24, 2019 8:37 am

Re: S Fund Bubble??

Post by VAmanBulls »

Just curious what you are looking at when you say the C Fund seems low right now. As of yesterday, the S&P forward P/E was running in the redline zone of 22X. The 5 year average is around 17X. Now these high PE's can be supported with low interest rates, BUT when those interest rates start to rise, look out. A lot of speculation in the market right now. I would say not just a S fund bubble, but a total market Valuation bubble. I can still see a path to an S&P target of 4000 or more by the end of the year, but a lot has to go right and hard to think a significant correction won't occur in that time.

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Fund Prices2021-04-16

FundPriceDayYTD
G $16.56 0.00% 0.34%
F $20.66 -0.21% -2.53%
C $62.57 0.36% 11.92%
S $83.28 -0.04% 12.24%
I $38.19 0.63% 7.92%
L2065 $13.71 0.39% 10.49%
L2060 $13.71 0.39% 10.49%
L2055 $13.71 0.39% 10.49%
L2050 $27.99 0.31% 8.45%
L2045 $12.79 0.29% 7.92%
L2040 $46.72 0.27% 7.42%
L2035 $12.36 0.25% 6.82%
L2030 $41.20 0.23% 6.25%
L2025 $11.71 0.18% 4.93%
Linc $22.82 0.08% 2.45%

Pending Allocations

Under development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".

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