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S Fund 2/18

Posted: Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:38 am
by ProduceMan
I’m surprised to see so many going to S today?

Is it per a seasonal strategy?

Re: S Fund 2/18

Posted: Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:44 am
by ProduceMan
Oops, my mistake.

It was pending IFTies out of S today.

Re: S Fund 2/18

Posted: Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:01 pm
by seawatcher
Many IFTs to F or G. I see some big leaders still in S. If someone was already in G, I can see the idea of moving to C and S today if they think the buyers will jump back in tomorrow and the C and S fund will go back up tomorrow??? Or if this is the big one (bubble burst), maybe wait another day or two?

Re: S Fund 2/18

Posted: Fri Feb 19, 2021 2:48 am
by acidfly
I jumped out of S a couple of days ago... looks like it was a great decision.

Re: S Fund 2/18

Posted: Fri Feb 19, 2021 8:01 am
by bamablue
The big question is when to return to S... Is this a pothole, or a crater?

My seasonal strategy (88676) has me going to S on Monday for a quick dip, then out to G two days later on the 24th. Not trying to out think my seasonal too much, but I did leave G a day earlier than my plan (and avoided a 0.88% loss)... I'm leaning heavily on not taking the quick dip in S and waiting until the next move out of G (to S Fund) on March 23d

Re: S Fund 2/18

Posted: Fri Feb 19, 2021 11:41 am
by alevill1
Any reason why the F Fund is not performing? Just wondering if anyone heard any news or if this is typical in time of low interest rates? Or is there some other catalyst that I am unaware of? Maybe there is nothing and C and S are just performing very well so F is getting no sunlight.

Re: S Fund 2/18

Posted: Tue Feb 23, 2021 9:38 am
by VAmanBulls
The F fund is basically a Bond index fund. Bonds are basically loans. Bond investors buy and sell these loans that have set pay out interest rates associated with them. Bond prices typically move in the opposite direction of interest rates. If I can buy a bond that pays 5% just as an example, why would I want your old bond that only pays 2%. We are at the beginning of a rising interest rate cycle. An individual hand picked bond portfolio can be good, but bond index funds can be trouble, like now, for the reasons stated above. Unfortunately, the auto default of many of the big investment firms is to just load you up in bond mutual funds if you are older. I'm not a fan of that blind investment strategy. Note, rising interest rates will also impact stocks that have been trading at extremely high forward P/E multiples. Also note the S&P 500 has been trading at a very high forward P/E.

Re: S Fund 2/18

Posted: Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:23 am
by bloobs
excellent primer vamanbulls. my layman's take, bond fund prices moving forward are in a tough spot regardless of whether the recovery stalls or takes off, a no-win situation. if govts and banks stop buying US bonds, rates spike/bond prices drop; if the stock market roars in recovery, it also drops. am i right?