Inquiring Minds, what’s your strategy?

General TSP Discussion.

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ProduceMan
Posts: 507
Joined: Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:01 pm

Inquiring Minds, what’s your strategy?

Post by ProduceMan »

I’m following 62084

C 10. S 40. I 15. G 35
Moneys’ Money Making Money (4M)

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ubascuba
Posts: 37
Joined: Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:56 pm

Re: Inquiring Minds, what’s your strategy?

Post by ubascuba »

I'm following 121017. I chose it because it had a low Std Dev up to 2019, a high mean (30%+), and sub 60% CSI.

2020 threw off the Std Dev, but I think it's still a pretty solid strategy.
Ubascuba
Strategy:121017
Current PIP: 28.7%


“Courage is what it takes to stand up and speak; courage is also what it takes to sit down and listen.” ~ Winston Churchill

pilotric99
Posts: 3
Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2012 9:02 pm

Re: Inquiring Minds, what’s your strategy?

Post by pilotric99 »

98700...

...28.35 Mean, 5.99 stddev, 56.62% S/C/I.

I sacrificed a little return for lower deviation, which in theory should narrow the annual returns closer to 28%. I just started following a seasonal strategy so only time will tell.

anomadtoo
Posts: 45
Joined: Thu Jun 13, 2013 10:23 am

Re: Inquiring Minds, what’s your strategy?

Post by anomadtoo »

66688 - 26.18 Mean/6.19 std dev/54 CSI

Midway
Posts: 200
Joined: Tue Feb 28, 2012 6:09 pm

Re: Inquiring Minds, what’s your strategy?

Post by Midway »

100666, ~29mean, ~9SD, easy number to remember. SD was a lot lower two years ago. May have to move on.

searight
Posts: 82
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2013 8:56 am

Re: Inquiring Minds, what’s your strategy?

Post by searight »

anomadtoo wrote: Tue Feb 23, 2021 11:18 am 66688 - 26.18 Mean/6.19 std dev/54 CSI
My Strategy is 35% C 35% S and the last 30% was #71767, but thinking of moving to #66688 since it only dips into I fund once and I am nervous amount EU economy with BREXIT and COVID and longer term baby boomer demographics.

gbnooks207
Posts: 18
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 8:39 pm

Re: Inquiring Minds, what’s your strategy?

Post by gbnooks207 »

In the beginning of the year I started out following #117868, but after the poor performance of the F fund in Jan, I decided to roll the dice and just stay in the S fund for month of Feb. The model that I will follow now is #142409 … I place more importance on years after 2012, not worrying too much about 2004-2012 yearly results.
https://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=142 ... ears=13-20

My future retirement (safe) models are;
https://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=805 ... ears=13-21
G 75% C 10% S 15%
Again I place more importance on years after 2012. In my retirement (safe) model I choose to have a very low CSI% and a very low number of negative monthly returns in the chart over a very low Std Dev.

wingchaser
Posts: 124
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Inquiring Minds, what’s your strategy?

Post by wingchaser »

I’m going to argue (here) for the Buy-&-Hold strategy. If you go to LEADERBOARD & then “select” BALANCE, the Leader (far & away) is

McLovin S FUND: LAST IFT 2013-08-13

This member has accrued 612% ROI by moving into the S Fund in 2013, and for almost 8 years, has been unwavering. In contrast, I’ve made 129 IFT(s) in that same time interim (as a Timer) & have been seriously left in the dust.

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

Ericdelee
Posts: 210
Joined: Thu May 30, 2013 7:09 pm

Re: Inquiring Minds, what’s your strategy?

Post by Ericdelee »

The core strategy I started with this year is 81608.

I made a couple of changes (one at the very beginning for Inauguration gains and then in FEB I stayed in funds a few days longer and pushed to G Fund 19 Feb). Those changes are reflected in this strat: 143676

Then I made another change by going in early to S Fund to capture gains. New strat is 144529.

A few things: I’m making way too many changes. Going against my norm and against what I said I would do. But I’m also doing my due diligence and making moves that are paying off. So far.
I suppose it pays off — until it doesn’t.

So at the core, my strat is still following 81608. I will be making moves tracking that strat. The other strats simply show the gains made thus far.

I don’t think there are many additional things this year that are clear signs to change from the strat. Thus far I’m up nearly 4% for MAR. There is a real good chance the technicals are showing S Fund to tank a bit. I will be watching and running to G Fund if I need to protect my gains. That’s the dangers of messing around and changing from your strat too early in the month.

So that’s my year in a nutshell. I’m pulling a 13.71% for the year. But there should be a lot less stress: if I would stick to the schedule.
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GooseJ
Posts: 19
Joined: Wed Jul 13, 2016 11:11 am

Re: Inquiring Minds, what’s your strategy?

Post by GooseJ »

Diversify based on your risk tolerance and stick with that plan.

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bloobs
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Re: Inquiring Minds, what’s your strategy?

Post by bloobs »

wingchaser wrote: Sat Mar 13, 2021 4:35 pm I’m going to argue (here) for the Buy-&-Hold strategy. If you go to LEADERBOARD & then “select” BALANCE, the Leader (far & away) is

McLovin S FUND: LAST IFT 2013-08-13

This member has accrued 612% ROI by moving into the S Fund in 2013, and for almost 8 years, has been unwavering. In contrast, I’ve made 129 IFT(s) in that same time interim (as a Timer) & have been seriously left in the dust.

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
Yes, Buy and Hold Dollar-Cost-Averaging is the best bet, certainly at the beginning and middle stages of a 30-40 year working career.

But a Seasonal Strategy becomes the best move in the later career periods and subsequently during your retirement, simply because it allows one to IDENTIFY/MANAGE RISK and QUANTIFIABLY DELIVER MUCH MORE CONSISTENT RETURNS that should protect your annual returns. The last thing you want to happen is get an "unexpected" >30% drop in your portfolio value at your Retirement party, right?

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bamablue
Posts: 221
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2012 11:40 am

Re: Inquiring Minds, what’s your strategy?

Post by bamablue »

I've been using 88676. I'm a little less than 2 years from retiring and I don't need to get too cute. I'm very happy with the 7.56% return so far.

23V23C
Posts: 56
Joined: Sun Sep 24, 2017 2:13 pm

Re: Inquiring Minds, what’s your strategy?

Post by 23V23C »

This year I'm using 72022 and 123875 as guides...they both have a SD between 7 - 8 but move a little differently each month. I've sorted them to only show 2010 thru 2020 gains and strive to meet their 11 year monthly average Mean versus following the strategies verbatim. If the strats have me moving to G by the end of the month I'll move early once I have met/exceeded the monthly average Mean. I feel this keeps me on track of meeting the average annual Mean that attracted me to the strats in the first place. So far, so good.

TSPBuilder
Posts: 256
Joined: Tue Jun 19, 2012 2:14 pm

Re: Inquiring Minds, what’s your strategy?

Post by TSPBuilder »

wingchaser wrote: Sat Mar 13, 2021 4:35 pm I’m going to argue (here) for the Buy-&-Hold strategy. If you go to LEADERBOARD & then “select” BALANCE, the Leader (far & away) is

McLovin S FUND: LAST IFT 2013-08-13

This member has accrued 612% ROI by moving into the S Fund in 2013, and for almost 8 years, has been unwavering. In contrast, I’ve made 129 IFT(s) in that same time interim (as a Timer) & have been seriously left in the dust.

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
Wingchaser,
I am having trouble pulling up the specifications oh mclovins performance but I did go to tspcalc and did a comparison of strategy 85660 (that I have a lot of faith in) and compared it to the S fund from August 13th 2013 to present and it was 157.91% for the S fund and 683.13% for strategy 85660. From what I've seen for the past 16 months of me using the strategy, it will only make gains above buy-and-hold when there are Market downturns like 2008, 2010, 2015, 2018. Otherwise S fund will be a lot less work and perform just as well in up Market years. I am in retirement and I need the stability of not suffering a downturn year so I'm a big fan of the strategy I'm following because there are no negative years and nothing below 20% returns. The only stipulation when it'll be less than 20% is if I fail to make an IFT. Last year I failed to make two IFT's on time and it cost me 12.xx% return. I finished the year with 16.92% in my tsp account. If we add the 12.xx% to that I would be within 1% plus or minus of the S fund return if I'm not mistaken.
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TSPBuilder
Posts: 256
Joined: Tue Jun 19, 2012 2:14 pm

Re: Inquiring Minds, what’s your strategy?

Post by TSPBuilder »

Wingchaser,

Sorry about the double chart posting above. This is my first time inserting attachments at tsp Center. Here is a graph on the timeline for McLovin that you mentioned comparing the S Fund to the TSP seasonal strategy I pulled off of TSPcalc.
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Fund Prices2021-05-07

FundPriceDayYTD
G $16.58 0.00% 0.43%
F $20.72 0.00% -2.27%
C $63.32 0.75% 13.24%
S $82.16 1.32% 10.72%
I $38.76 1.29% 9.51%
L2065 $13.84 1.02% 11.49%
L2060 $13.84 1.02% 11.49%
L2055 $13.84 1.02% 11.49%
L2050 $28.21 0.84% 9.30%
L2045 $12.88 0.79% 8.73%
L2040 $47.05 0.73% 8.19%
L2035 $12.44 0.67% 7.54%
L2030 $41.46 0.61% 6.91%
L2025 $11.77 0.48% 5.47%
Linc $22.89 0.23% 2.76%

Pending Allocations

Under development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".

What else

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