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Inquiring Minds, what’s your strategy?

Posted: Mon Feb 22, 2021 12:42 pm
by ProduceMan
I’m following 62084

C 10. S 40. I 15. G 35

Re: Inquiring Minds, what’s your strategy?

Posted: Mon Feb 22, 2021 2:54 pm
by ubascuba
I'm following 121017. I chose it because it had a low Std Dev up to 2019, a high mean (30%+), and sub 60% CSI.

2020 threw off the Std Dev, but I think it's still a pretty solid strategy.

Re: Inquiring Minds, what’s your strategy?

Posted: Mon Feb 22, 2021 7:17 pm
by pilotric99
98700...

...28.35 Mean, 5.99 stddev, 56.62% S/C/I.

I sacrificed a little return for lower deviation, which in theory should narrow the annual returns closer to 28%. I just started following a seasonal strategy so only time will tell.

Re: Inquiring Minds, what’s your strategy?

Posted: Tue Feb 23, 2021 11:18 am
by anomadtoo
66688 - 26.18 Mean/6.19 std dev/54 CSI

Re: Inquiring Minds, what’s your strategy?

Posted: Wed Feb 24, 2021 12:28 pm
by Midway
100666, ~29mean, ~9SD, easy number to remember. SD was a lot lower two years ago. May have to move on.

Re: Inquiring Minds, what’s your strategy?

Posted: Wed Feb 24, 2021 12:58 pm
by searight
anomadtoo wrote: Tue Feb 23, 2021 11:18 am 66688 - 26.18 Mean/6.19 std dev/54 CSI
My Strategy is 35% C 35% S and the last 30% was #71767, but thinking of moving to #66688 since it only dips into I fund once and I am nervous amount EU economy with BREXIT and COVID and longer term baby boomer demographics.

Re: Inquiring Minds, what’s your strategy?

Posted: Thu Feb 25, 2021 9:31 am
by gbnooks207
In the beginning of the year I started out following #117868, but after the poor performance of the F fund in Jan, I decided to roll the dice and just stay in the S fund for month of Feb. The model that I will follow now is #142409 … I place more importance on years after 2012, not worrying too much about 2004-2012 yearly results.
https://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=142 ... ears=13-20

My future retirement (safe) models are;
https://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=805 ... ears=13-21
G 75% C 10% S 15%
Again I place more importance on years after 2012. In my retirement (safe) model I choose to have a very low CSI% and a very low number of negative monthly returns in the chart over a very low Std Dev.

Re: Inquiring Minds, what’s your strategy?

Posted: Sat Mar 13, 2021 4:35 pm
by wingchaser
I’m going to argue (here) for the Buy-&-Hold strategy. If you go to LEADERBOARD & then “select” BALANCE, the Leader (far & away) is

McLovin S FUND: LAST IFT 2013-08-13

This member has accrued 612% ROI by moving into the S Fund in 2013, and for almost 8 years, has been unwavering. In contrast, I’ve made 129 IFT(s) in that same time interim (as a Timer) & have been seriously left in the dust.

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!

Re: Inquiring Minds, what’s your strategy?

Posted: Sat Mar 13, 2021 9:46 pm
by Ericdelee
The core strategy I started with this year is 81608.

I made a couple of changes (one at the very beginning for Inauguration gains and then in FEB I stayed in funds a few days longer and pushed to G Fund 19 Feb). Those changes are reflected in this strat: 143676

Then I made another change by going in early to S Fund to capture gains. New strat is 144529.

A few things: I’m making way too many changes. Going against my norm and against what I said I would do. But I’m also doing my due diligence and making moves that are paying off. So far.
I suppose it pays off — until it doesn’t.

So at the core, my strat is still following 81608. I will be making moves tracking that strat. The other strats simply show the gains made thus far.

I don’t think there are many additional things this year that are clear signs to change from the strat. Thus far I’m up nearly 4% for MAR. There is a real good chance the technicals are showing S Fund to tank a bit. I will be watching and running to G Fund if I need to protect my gains. That’s the dangers of messing around and changing from your strat too early in the month.

So that’s my year in a nutshell. I’m pulling a 13.71% for the year. But there should be a lot less stress: if I would stick to the schedule.

Re: Inquiring Minds, what’s your strategy?

Posted: Sat Mar 13, 2021 11:12 pm
by GooseJ
Diversify based on your risk tolerance and stick with that plan.

Re: Inquiring Minds, what’s your strategy?

Posted: Sun Mar 14, 2021 8:29 am
by bloobs
wingchaser wrote: Sat Mar 13, 2021 4:35 pm I’m going to argue (here) for the Buy-&-Hold strategy. If you go to LEADERBOARD & then “select” BALANCE, the Leader (far & away) is

McLovin S FUND: LAST IFT 2013-08-13

This member has accrued 612% ROI by moving into the S Fund in 2013, and for almost 8 years, has been unwavering. In contrast, I’ve made 129 IFT(s) in that same time interim (as a Timer) & have been seriously left in the dust.

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
Yes, Buy and Hold Dollar-Cost-Averaging is the best bet, certainly at the beginning and middle stages of a 30-40 year working career.

But a Seasonal Strategy becomes the best move in the later career periods and subsequently during your retirement, simply because it allows one to IDENTIFY/MANAGE RISK and QUANTIFIABLY DELIVER MUCH MORE CONSISTENT RETURNS that should protect your annual returns. The last thing you want to happen is get an "unexpected" >30% drop in your portfolio value at your Retirement party, right?

Re: Inquiring Minds, what’s your strategy?

Posted: Sun Mar 14, 2021 10:34 am
by bamablue
I've been using 88676. I'm a little less than 2 years from retiring and I don't need to get too cute. I'm very happy with the 7.56% return so far.

Re: Inquiring Minds, what’s your strategy?

Posted: Sun Mar 14, 2021 1:38 pm
by 23V23C
This year I'm using 72022 and 123875 as guides...they both have a SD between 7 - 8 but move a little differently each month. I've sorted them to only show 2010 thru 2020 gains and strive to meet their 11 year monthly average Mean versus following the strategies verbatim. If the strats have me moving to G by the end of the month I'll move early once I have met/exceeded the monthly average Mean. I feel this keeps me on track of meeting the average annual Mean that attracted me to the strats in the first place. So far, so good.

Re: Inquiring Minds, what’s your strategy?

Posted: Sun Mar 14, 2021 8:32 pm
by TSPBuilder
wingchaser wrote: Sat Mar 13, 2021 4:35 pm I’m going to argue (here) for the Buy-&-Hold strategy. If you go to LEADERBOARD & then “select” BALANCE, the Leader (far & away) is

McLovin S FUND: LAST IFT 2013-08-13

This member has accrued 612% ROI by moving into the S Fund in 2013, and for almost 8 years, has been unwavering. In contrast, I’ve made 129 IFT(s) in that same time interim (as a Timer) & have been seriously left in the dust.

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
Wingchaser,
I am having trouble pulling up the specifications oh mclovins performance but I did go to tspcalc and did a comparison of strategy 85660 (that I have a lot of faith in) and compared it to the S fund from August 13th 2013 to present and it was 157.91% for the S fund and 683.13% for strategy 85660. From what I've seen for the past 16 months of me using the strategy, it will only make gains above buy-and-hold when there are Market downturns like 2008, 2010, 2015, 2018. Otherwise S fund will be a lot less work and perform just as well in up Market years. I am in retirement and I need the stability of not suffering a downturn year so I'm a big fan of the strategy I'm following because there are no negative years and nothing below 20% returns. The only stipulation when it'll be less than 20% is if I fail to make an IFT. Last year I failed to make two IFT's on time and it cost me 12.xx% return. I finished the year with 16.92% in my tsp account. If we add the 12.xx% to that I would be within 1% plus or minus of the S fund return if I'm not mistaken.

Re: Inquiring Minds, what’s your strategy?

Posted: Sun Mar 14, 2021 9:17 pm
by TSPBuilder
Wingchaser,

Sorry about the double chart posting above. This is my first time inserting attachments at tsp Center. Here is a graph on the timeline for McLovin that you mentioned comparing the S Fund to the TSP seasonal strategy I pulled off of TSPcalc.