Pulling the trigger.

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PhilJohn
Posts: 327
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2017 10:38 am

Pulling the trigger.

Post by PhilJohn »

For those of you that avoided losses, when do plan on buying? My plan calls for me to buy on the 17Th trading day, but I am considering moving that day up in order to time the bottom. I promised myself I would stick to the plan after last year but if today and Friday are both negitive, it will be pretty tempting.

What are your thoughts?

searight
Posts: 82
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2013 8:56 am

Re: Pulling the trigger.

Post by searight »

My plan calls for me to buy back in on the 11th trading day for I then the 17th day for S. I understand how tempting it is to buy back in but I must follow my plan.

Gold Leader : It's no good, I can't maneuver! Gold Five : Stay on target. Gold Leader : We're too close! Gold Five : Stay on target!

PhilJohn
Posts: 327
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2017 10:38 am

Re: Pulling the trigger.

Post by PhilJohn »

Yeah I think I’ll stay out for a while.Star Wars?

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ubascuba
Posts: 42
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Re: Pulling the trigger.

Post by ubascuba »

Every time I deviated from my plan last year, I got burned. The plan I was following made 50%. I made about 25%. I'm sticking with my plan and going to S on the 17th day.
Ubascuba
Strategy:121017
Current PIP: 31.88%


“Courage is what it takes to stand up and speak; courage is also what it takes to sit down and listen.” ~ Winston Churchill

PhilJohn
Posts: 327
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2017 10:38 am

Re: Pulling the trigger.

Post by PhilJohn »

ubascuba wrote: Thu Mar 04, 2021 4:12 pm Every time I deviated from my plan last year, I got burned. The plan I was following made 50%. I made about 25%. I'm sticking with my plan and going to S on the 17th day.
Same here. The more I tried to time it, the more stuck in the mud I became. Im just happy that I took my earnings and ran to G when I did (per plan).

PhilJohn
Posts: 327
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2017 10:38 am

Re: Pulling the trigger.

Post by PhilJohn »

Down 2.53 again in S. How far does this rabbit hole go?

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Aitrus
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Re: Pulling the trigger.

Post by Aitrus »

PhilJohn wrote: Fri Mar 05, 2021 12:10 pm Down 2.53 again in S. How far does this rabbit hole go?
equityclock.com says that a reasonable downside target for the S&P is 3550.

http://www.equityclock.com/2021/03/04/s ... ch-5-2021/
Seasonal Musings 2021: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=18757
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

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bloobs
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Re: Pulling the trigger.

Post by bloobs »

Aitrus wrote: Fri Mar 05, 2021 12:14 pm equityclock.com says that a reasonable downside target for the S&P is 3550.
http://www.equityclock.com/2021/03/04/s ... ch-5-2021/
My guess: VXF at around $150/share by 3rd week of March. We shall see.

houston
Posts: 128
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2011 2:32 pm

Re: Pulling the trigger.

Post by houston »

Aitrus wrote: Fri Mar 05, 2021 12:14 pm
PhilJohn wrote: Fri Mar 05, 2021 12:10 pm Down 2.53 again in S. How far does this rabbit hole go?
equityclock.com says that a reasonable downside target for the S&P is 3550.

http://www.equityclock.com/2021/03/04/s ... ch-5-2021/
S&P isn't the S fund though...

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Aitrus
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Re: Pulling the trigger.

Post by Aitrus »

houston wrote: Fri Mar 05, 2021 1:08 pm S&P isn't the S fund though...
True, it's not. But the way the S&P goes is usually a good indicator of which way the S Fund will go as well. If the S&P tanks, it's not a good indication that the S Fund will do well. They two might diverge on individual days, or may differ in how high or how deep they go during a trend move, but they will usually go up or down together in a general sense.
Seasonal Musings 2021: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=18757
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

cashworth
Posts: 115
Joined: Mon Jul 03, 2017 11:18 am

Re: Pulling the trigger.

Post by cashworth »

@ bloobs, so another 10%-ish down. Oof. I could see it based on long term channels and just how steep our channel has been recently

@ Houston, he never said it was. SP500 or SPY numbers are just so common, most people can mentally reference them without looking it up. Also, it's the C fund mirror.

Ericdelee
Posts: 211
Joined: Thu May 30, 2013 7:09 pm

Re: Pulling the trigger.

Post by Ericdelee »

So is the Stimulus really already accounted for? Or is there room for a melt up?

Bloobs mention of perhaps room for a 10% downward trend is eye catching. Yet here we sit the day before the house votes and approves the relief bill, placing it within the POTUS’s hands. The concern is a quick jump up, yet a few ticks right back down. I truly don’t know if it’s worth jumping out of the Strategy (by moving from G Fund to S Fund) two weeks earlier than I should.

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bloobs
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Re: Pulling the trigger.

Post by bloobs »

Ericdelee wrote: Mon Mar 08, 2021 11:02 am So is the Stimulus really already accounted for? Or is there room for a melt up?

Bloobs mention of perhaps room for a 10% downward trend is eye catching. Yet here we sit the day before the house votes and approves the relief bill, placing it within the POTUS’s hands. The concern is a quick jump up, yet a few ticks right back down. I truly don’t know if it’s worth jumping out of the Strategy (by moving from G Fund to S Fund) two weeks earlier than I should.
Any of the outcomes you mentioned is possible. Mine is on some basic TA and the nagging notion that the market makers have decided REGARDLESS of the present media narrative (of on-track vaccinations progress, stimulus payments) that it's just TIME for a 5-10% correction, to prime itself for a significant leg up (beginning April?) through the rest of 2021. BTW I used to be a proponent of using fundamental analysis to determining market levels, but realized that does not hold any weight nowadays (i.e. when was the last time the market respected P/E valuations lol?)

Ericdelee
Posts: 211
Joined: Thu May 30, 2013 7:09 pm

Re: Pulling the trigger.

Post by Ericdelee »

I think I gotta follow the plan here.
Seems like there is way too much probability of the market going down again soon. Staying out in G Fund.
There’s no sensenin doubting the strategy now

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IRQVET
Posts: 96
Joined: Tue May 03, 2016 12:45 am

Re: Pulling the trigger.

Post by IRQVET »

I'm not following the a plan this year, just by gut feeling which has been paying off so far since the election. I know its dumb luck, but in this crazy world, I'll take it, rofl.
Operation Iraqi Freedom Veteran
Disclaimer: The contents of this thread are known to the state of California to cause cancer.

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Fund Prices2021-06-18

FundPriceDayYTD
G $16.61 0.00% 0.60%
F $20.88 0.32% -1.49%
C $62.45 -1.31% 11.69%
S $82.88 -1.28% 11.70%
I $38.60 -1.78% 9.07%
L2065 $13.75 -1.45% 10.74%
L2060 $13.75 -1.45% 10.74%
L2055 $13.75 -1.45% 10.74%
L2050 $28.08 -1.17% 8.79%
L2045 $12.83 -1.10% 8.27%
L2040 $46.86 -1.03% 7.76%
L2035 $12.40 -0.94% 7.17%
L2030 $41.33 -0.86% 6.58%
L2025 $11.75 -0.66% 5.27%
Linc $22.90 -0.31% 2.77%

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