Nothing inspires confidence....

General TSP Discussion.

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bloobs
Posts: 1073
Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 8:00 pm

Re: Nothing inspires confidence....

Post by bloobs »

ubascuba wrote: Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:53 pm I have learned to follow my strategy. I've been using TSPCalc since 2019. Every time I followed my instincts, I've lost out. My 2019 and 2020 gains were in the mid to high 20's% and thus far in 2021 I'm up over 10%. My gains would be double that if I would have stuck with my plan. Follow the plan!
Yes.

1. Seasonal strategies use only raw data, no interpretations, opinions, beliefs that obfuscate--to inform their buy and sell decisions. It' not perfect but it's certainly better than using our so-called instincts or gut feelings.

2. "Our instincts" are based mostly on often skewed interpretations, opinions, beliefs, BIASES--with a sprinkling of raw data. I read an article once that concluded that the most popular financial/market gurus at best were right 47% of the time in their calls. I think the guy who came out with the Dow Theory owns that title. Our loud prolific MSM friend Jim Cramer did abysmally in the 20s. As any gambler will tell you, the ONLY way to make money visiting casinos is to make the right calls at least 51% of the time.

Bottom line: none (or very few) of us humans are capable of completely and properly interpreting the 100's of factors. We simply are not smart enough--meaning we do not have the cognitive ability to remember every single data point--much less analyze these properly. That's why very expensive AI/ML technology is used by the financial firms to crunch the millions of calculations to infer a buy/sell decision nowadays to stand a chance of succeeding at least half the time.

PhilJohn
Posts: 321
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2017 10:38 am

Re: Nothing inspires confidence....

Post by PhilJohn »

Im glad I am not the only one who didnt move to I and stayed in C. I try to stick with my plan but I also am fine going off it too.

Chulke
Posts: 304
Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 10:25 am

Re: Nothing inspires confidence....

Post by Chulke »

I was just reviewing my chosen strategy, Strat#85660, and noticed it spends nearly 2 months in the F fund per year and actually does quite well while in that fund...first in June and then again in August.....I wonder what's so significant about those months and the F fund???
Cheers!

Current Strat: 85660
Current PIP: 30.3

KTSPcalc
Posts: 2
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:22 pm

Re: Nothing inspires confidence....

Post by KTSPcalc »

@Sconey started an interesting dialogue about whether folks should move from S to C/I near the beginning of April. I personally moved from S to I on the 3rd trading day of April.

With the last few days of volatility I thought I'd check in on how each of those actions has played out.

Start in S; Stay in S = 3.06% increase for April thru today.
Start in S; IFT to I on day 3/April = 4.27% increase for April thru today.
Start in S; IFT to C on day 3/April = 5.09% increase for April thru today.

April has been overall positive so we're all doing well, but the divergence is bigger than I would have expected. #funwithmath.

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sconey
Posts: 20
Joined: Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:05 pm

Re: Nothing inspires confidence....

Post by sconey »

Thanks for the "funwithmath", KTSPcalc. I stayed in C and am glad I did. As we say in Arkansas, "Even a blind hog finds an acorn every once in a while". Also, glad that the divergence is not vastly different for those that did move to I or stay in S.

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sconey
Posts: 20
Joined: Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:05 pm

Re: Nothing inspires confidence....

Post by sconey »

Perhaps I spoke too soon.....

md2018
Posts: 137
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2010 1:17 pm

Re: Nothing inspires confidence....

Post by md2018 »

A hint of increasing the Capital Gains tax and all gains for the day wiped out.

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Fund Prices2021-05-07

FundPriceDayYTD
G $16.58 0.00% 0.43%
F $20.72 0.00% -2.27%
C $63.32 0.75% 13.24%
S $82.16 1.32% 10.72%
I $38.76 1.29% 9.51%
L2065 $13.84 1.02% 11.49%
L2060 $13.84 1.02% 11.49%
L2055 $13.84 1.02% 11.49%
L2050 $28.21 0.84% 9.30%
L2045 $12.88 0.79% 8.73%
L2040 $47.05 0.73% 8.19%
L2035 $12.44 0.67% 7.54%
L2030 $41.46 0.61% 6.91%
L2025 $11.77 0.48% 5.47%
Linc $22.89 0.23% 2.76%

Pending Allocations

Under development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".

What else

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