Bubble Anyone?

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TSPBuilder
Posts: 257
Joined: Tue Jun 19, 2012 2:14 pm

Bubble Anyone?

Post by TSPBuilder »

Seasonal strategy 85660 had me go to cash about 2/19/21 and re-enter the S fund on 3/23/21. The 24th was a painful down day but the 25th compensated in the up for most of previous down. I noticed a couple stocks indexes have dipped yesterday and about 5 weeks ago below their 200 day moving average. The second dip was further down and indicates to me that we may be starting a down trend in the market. Looks like all the doom and gloom of a "bubble popping" may have been self-realized.

VAmanBulls
Posts: 224
Joined: Wed Jul 24, 2019 8:37 am

Re: Bubble Anyone?

Post by VAmanBulls »

Well you have inflation (just look at gas and home prices), the 10yr Treasury yield increasing, and more and more talk of a corporate tax increase. Not a great line-up for the markets in general. The fuel to burn the high forward P/E's is running out. To top it off, we got Rocket Man starting to play games again. It's time to stay alert.

Brandon28
Posts: 17
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2020 1:01 am

Re: Bubble Anyone?

Post by Brandon28 »

VAmanBulls wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 2:02 pm Well you have inflation (just look at gas and home prices), the 10yr Treasury yield increasing, and more and more talk of a corporate tax increase. Not a great line-up for the markets in general. The fuel to burn the high forward P/E's is running out. To top it off, we got Rocket Man starting to play games again. It's time to stay alert.
You hit the nail on the head with inflation. I don't care what the experts say, inflation is already here. Housing prices, auto prices, lumber, fuel, and soon taxes are all up. Free money will juice the economy in the short term but when it comes time to pay the piper it's gonna sting.

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bloobs
Posts: 1083
Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 8:00 pm

Re: Bubble Anyone?

Post by bloobs »

i guess "inflation threat" is the markets and its media enablers newest boogeyman du jour.
its always something.

"lookie here lookie here everyone, you see that big bad inflation monster coming! buy/sell this stock/etf now!!!!" while they scheme in private about what will really go down next.

what's little fish like us to do--play the game? question everything they tell you.

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IRQVET
Posts: 96
Joined: Tue May 03, 2016 12:45 am

Re: Bubble Anyone?

Post by IRQVET »

Reminds me of that Marketplace ad, where the guy has 30 sheets of 3/8 plywood he is willing to trade for a 2016 or newer F-250. Ad read, "I know what I have! No low ballers."

:lol:
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stilljammi
Posts: 166
Joined: Sun Dec 01, 2019 3:59 pm

Re: Bubble Anyone?

Post by stilljammi »

bloobs wrote: Sat Mar 27, 2021 8:39 am i guess "inflation threat" is the markets and its media enablers newest boogeyman du jour.
its always something.

"lookie here lookie here everyone, you see that big bad inflation monster coming! buy/sell this stock/etf now!!!!" while they scheme in private about what will really go down next.

what's little fish like us to do--play the game? question everything they tell you.
I agree. It's funny how only a few months ago we were praising our skyrocketing home values and cheap fuel and low interest rates.

Lumber goes up, so does your home value. Fuel has gone up, but medical costs are down. Transportation costs have been jumping around, but automobile prices have been steady going down. The dollar has been jumping around, but the market is going up.

The experts are experts for a reason. Inflation has been ticking up slightly, but not as much as expected. The costs have been balancing out for the most part.

wingchaser
Posts: 134
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Bubble Anyone?

Post by wingchaser »

1st Quarter Earnings about to commence in April & there’s strong propensity for stocks to rise (in the short-term interim)...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/here-com ... 23080.html

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

hawkeye185
Posts: 4
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 9:37 pm

Re: Bubble Anyone?

Post by hawkeye185 »

what's the deal with "move your money before April 27"?

hawkeye185
Posts: 4
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 9:37 pm

Re: Bubble Anyone?

Post by hawkeye185 »

possible dbl cap gains tax spooked some gamblers, is this justified?

wingchaser
Posts: 134
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Bubble Anyone?

Post by wingchaser »

Candlestick for ^RUT (S Fund) just blew thru it’s 50 MDA & while that, in & of itself, doesn’t constitute an upsurge, it is pertinent & speaks to possible upward mobility in the relative short-term horizon. S Fund has also (mildly) increased the gap for highest ROI amongst TSP Fund choices (mild noteworthiness as well)...

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

acidfly
Posts: 19
Joined: Fri Nov 18, 2016 1:14 pm

Re: Bubble Anyone?

Post by acidfly »

When you have an administration proposing 10 trillion in spending within the first year of office, ofcourse people will talk about inflation.

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Fund Prices2021-06-18

FundPriceDayYTD
G $16.61 0.00% 0.60%
F $20.88 0.32% -1.49%
C $62.45 -1.31% 11.69%
S $82.88 -1.28% 11.70%
I $38.60 -1.78% 9.07%
L2065 $13.75 -1.45% 10.74%
L2060 $13.75 -1.45% 10.74%
L2055 $13.75 -1.45% 10.74%
L2050 $28.08 -1.17% 8.79%
L2045 $12.83 -1.10% 8.27%
L2040 $46.86 -1.03% 7.76%
L2035 $12.40 -0.94% 7.17%
L2030 $41.33 -0.86% 6.58%
L2025 $11.75 -0.66% 5.27%
Linc $22.90 -0.31% 2.77%

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