TSP Center

Has anyone done a comparison to determine which strategies in TSPCalc perform best under a specific political party president? Take for instance 85660....does it perform best under a democrat president or a republican president? or is there another strategy that performs equally or better?

I ask this because it seems as though the market reactivity to political leanings such as Biden stating he wants to raise capital gains taxes....that one tweet or whatever tanked the market 1% in a single session...so with that being said I was wondering if an analysis had been done against political parties.



Cheers!

This would be difficult because I do not know what dates to use. Do you only look at the exact days that the POTUS is in the job or do you look at the days when a predominance of investors anticipate a POTUS coming to power. And what about congress?

Here you go....

Average of Annualized Returns Specific to #85660
====================
Republican 2004-2008): 28.1%
Democrat 2009-2016: 28.3%
Republican 2017-2020: 31.6%

Interesting! Very interesting!!!

Average of Annualized Returns Specific to #128539
====================
Republican 2004-2008): 26.22%
Democrat 2009-2016: 34.57%
Republican 2017-2020: 35.17%

Chulke wrote: ↑Mon Apr 26, 2021 9:40 am Has anyone done a comparison to determine which strategies in TSPCalc perform best under a specific political party president? Take for instance 85660....does it perform best under a democrat president or a republican president? or is there another strategy that performs equally or better?

I ask this because it seems as though the market reactivity to political leanings such as Biden stating he wants to raise capital gains taxes....that one tweet or whatever tanked the market 1% in a single session...so with that being said I was wondering if an analysis had been done against political parties.



Cheers!

People are making too much out of this capital gains thing or tax increase. Check this out:

https://twitter.com/RyanDetrick/status/ ... 1901316097

You'll see that the market goes up and down, just like now, even if on average the market keeps going up. The explanation to that is simple. While the government does take in more cash, they also tend to spend more. So, the actual impacts of costs is muted. There are many other market forces, but that's the easiest to write down.

I think a more interesting view would be to see how the market performs during presidential cycles and which strategy performs best for those cycles. So far, we're very close to a typical post-election situation.

Check here for more info

https://charts.equityclock.com/sp-500-i ... nal-charts

Best,

Bubba

Edit: that means that this year should be good, but next year might have some pain attached.