Dumb luck, superstition, and learning . . .

General TSP Discussion.

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Re: Dumb luck, superstition, and learning . . .

Post by Pss3757 »

when you let your "gut" or emotions guide the way you invest, you will lose every time.
I not a pro, but definitely not an amateur at investing...and I can remember back when I lost my ass off based upon feelings.
You have to invest based upon what the market is showing you...reading the market as you would say. like the above author Larry Swedroe says...there is no forecast.
How many times does a company come out with great earnings...and the stock drops? doesn't make sense does it. You have to take what the market is showing you and adjust accordingly. There are no predictions for tomorrow until the sun rises. Making money today in the market seems rather easy, its keeping it, knowing when to sell that's hard. Just my 2 cents.

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Re: Dumb luck, superstition, and learning . . .

Post by PhilJohn »

I dont know if I buy the whole "When this market opens from restrictions" thing. Well maybe if you live in a place like New York or whatever.

Where I am from, we never really had restrictions if only for a short period. Its pretty much been business as usual for a while, except things we need/ use costing more.

I will predict at least a long term downtrend sooner than later, if not a severe crash, based on hyper inflation, debt, and investors seaching for alternive wealth creation to avoid the unrealistic capital gain tax. I will be looking more into real estate for example.

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Re: Dumb luck, superstition, and learning . . .

Post by IRQVET »

I've made a lot of money in real estate, as that is the investment vessel I know the best. But I'm not touching RE right now, at least in my area until a down turn materializes. I currently reside in a state people are moving to in droves to escape the big liberal cities/ states. Couple that with the current cost of materials, and RE is not something I'm jumping back into. My stance might change if I find a gem with poor marketing behind it. My last two RE purchases fell into that category; that, and I bought in the path of progress, which hyper inflated the value so I made some nice profit when I off loaded them.

But RE investing is an itch I love to scratch, but I usually wait for a down RE market before making moves.
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Re: Dumb luck, superstition, and learning . . .

Post by PhilJohn »

Vet, I think its a real possibility. Why should anyone assume so much risk just so the Government can swoop in and take nearly half your retirement earnings? Its not feasible.

Im just a small fry, but I cant imagine the fat cats in the market are going to be ok with that. I think people will leave the market faster than people leaving the golden state.

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