Dumb luck, superstition, and learning . . .

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IRQVET
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Dumb luck, superstition, and learning . . .

Post by IRQVET »

As a novice and not a super intelligent investor TSP or otherwise, I'll admit my shortcomings. But life experience and history are something I've always found solice in. With that in mind, and not to go down the political rabit hole, but I feel elections have consequences.

I have been watching and/or studying market trends, trying to understand the best ways to gauge the market. (Like us all)

But something told me to sell everything late April and hide into the G-Fund. I'm watching the market tank (either in the short-term or longer?) and I wondering what everyone elses take on our current economy as we move forward. I've always valued the information I've gleamed from this website. So any input and/or insight is appreciated . . .
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RhinoD
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Re: Dumb luck, superstition, and learning . . .

Post by RhinoD »

I just moved everything to the G as well. I will hide out there with all of the unrest happening. I don't see anything good coming of this current downturn.

Mike0223
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Re: Dumb luck, superstition, and learning . . .

Post by Mike0223 »

I have over a dozen strategies from tspcalc.com on my watch list and compare those along with Beer Bet participants. I compare the moves in the calendar and depending on what a majority say to do, I’ll find a day to move. Most of the strategies had me in G for the past few weeks with a re-entry to S tomorrow. I went in a day early after the big drop yesterday. I avoid F and I funds in the past and will reevaluate that when it’s time for the next move.

ProduceMan
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Re: Dumb luck, superstition, and learning . . .

Post by ProduceMan »

Mike0223, If your strategy says May 14 it’s not telling you to IFT on 14 May, but on 20 May, which is the 14th trading day in May.
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IRQVET
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Re: Dumb luck, superstition, and learning . . .

Post by IRQVET »

Lately I've been watching the news and making moves when this hyper sensitive nation of ours is butthurt over XYZ. If enough negative news is out there, I make moves accordingly. Strange way to invest but I've noticed how the media coverage in our country influences the masses (and the market at times). Its a weird way to gauge the market but has been paying out lately. Especially when EVERYONE is being a professional victim and the world is coming to an abrupt end between news cycles. . .
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Tomanyiron
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Re: Dumb luck, superstition, and learning . . .

Post by Tomanyiron »

RhinoD wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 3:58 pm I just moved everything to the G as well. I will hide out there with all of the unrest happening. I don't see anything good coming of this current downturn.
A lot of people were thinking the same thing, (including myself). And that's what the market was waiting for, to start the upturn. :?

acidfly
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Re: Dumb luck, superstition, and learning . . .

Post by acidfly »

Deleted.
Last edited by acidfly on Fri May 14, 2021 8:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Aitrus
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Re: Dumb luck, superstition, and learning . . .

Post by Aitrus »

acidfly,

MJ has made it a policy to keep politics off the forum. I ask that you respect his wishes and understand that this isn't the place for it. Discussing in nonpartisan terms how this or that policy is affecting the market is fine, but we need you to refrain from purely political conjecture, hyperbole, and broad strokes. If you can point to specific policies that had a verifiable effect on the market, then we welcome such discussion as long as it's done with the framing of discussing of investments and the stock market. Otherwise, if all you can offer is political bickering, then I need you to dial it down.
Seasonal Musings 2021: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=18757
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

zenquest
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Re: Dumb luck, superstition, and learning . . .

Post by zenquest »

My research relies heavily on data and my gut. That "something" that told you to hide in G was yours and I dont know about the rest of us here but my gut beats data every time. Now, when the data AND my gut align - watch out. It happened in 2008 and last year.

As far as the current economy - it doesnt look good but ultimately your guess is as good as mine. What happens when we finally get COVID under control? What happens to the housing market when the eviction/foreclosure moratoriums are lifted? What happens if civil unrest increases? I could go on but you get the picture.

So my ultimate advice is find and stick to a seasonal you're comfortable with. After that do as much research as you want and use that knowledge and your gut to decide if/when you need to deviate from the seasonal. This strategy has lowered my anxiety and helped me avoid analysis paralysis.

pilotric99
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Re: Dumb luck, superstition, and learning . . .

Post by pilotric99 »

+1 on Aitrus' "advice". I certainly don't visit this website (or recommend to colleagues) for the political views, regardless of party.

Scarfinger
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Re: Dumb luck, superstition, and learning . . .

Post by Scarfinger »

IRQVET wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 9:12 pm
But something told me to sell everything late April and hide into the G-Fund. I'm watching the market tank (either in the short-term or longer?) and I wondering what everyone elses take on our current economy as we move forward. I've always valued the information I've gleamed from this website. So any input and/or insight is appreciated . . .
Noted author and researcher Larry Swedroe. Larry is chief research officer at financial advisory firm Buckingham Wealth Partners, which he joined in 1996. In his role, Larry is responsible for reviewing academic research on financial and investing matters and determining how that research should inform Buckingham's investment strategy. Larry is also a member of the firm's Investment Policy Committee. Larry has written numerous books on investing and finance. Larry began his career as a risk manager at Citicorp and later at Prudential Home Mortgage. He says that he made and sold forecast, and admits...

A quote from Larry
"There are no good forecasters. They don't exist."
that is what the research shows when it comes to economics and markets. He says "ignore all forecast" and "that includes me" referring to himself.
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
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5/3/21: Buy and Hold 30% C, 70% S if I can stay disciplined.

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IRQVET
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Re: Dumb luck, superstition, and learning . . .

Post by IRQVET »

Been watching the CDC is loosening restrictions. I think it will be telling what happens when 1.) States Covid financial assistance programs; and 2.) What is going to happen to the real estate market when people lose their ability to be protected from eviction based on circumstances related to Covid. Couple that with the inflationary situation, and I think we're looking for a wild ride in the near future.
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wingchaser
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Re: Dumb luck, superstition, and learning . . .

Post by wingchaser »

In some ways, we’re poised from some explosive gains in the near future (30/60/90 days). The market is @ near all-times “before” the reopening of the economy & the upsurge in sales & profits (across the board).

One person’s opinion...

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
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acidfly
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Re: Dumb luck, superstition, and learning . . .

Post by acidfly »

I think in any other instance this year would be huge for gains. But when you have a mass of people not wanting to go back to work because they are being paid to stay at home and you have inflation and an idiot in office taking about a 6 trillion dollar budget on top of the other trillions for bailouts. Right now they have to keep printing money kicking the can down the road which causes inflation because of they don't the market will crash.

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bloobs
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Re: Dumb luck, superstition, and learning . . .

Post by bloobs »

acidfly wrote: Thu May 27, 2021 7:13 pm I think in any other instance this year would be huge for gains. But when you have a mass of people not wanting to go back to work because they are being paid to stay at home and you have inflation and an idiot in office taking about a 6 trillion dollar budget on top of the other trillions for bailouts. Right now they have to keep printing money kicking the can down the road which causes inflation because of they don't the market will crash.
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Fund Prices2021-06-18

FundPriceDayYTD
G $16.61 0.00% 0.60%
F $20.88 0.32% -1.49%
C $62.45 -1.31% 11.69%
S $82.88 -1.28% 11.70%
I $38.60 -1.78% 9.07%
L2065 $13.75 -1.45% 10.74%
L2060 $13.75 -1.45% 10.74%
L2055 $13.75 -1.45% 10.74%
L2050 $28.08 -1.17% 8.79%
L2045 $12.83 -1.10% 8.27%
L2040 $46.86 -1.03% 7.76%
L2035 $12.40 -0.94% 7.17%
L2030 $41.33 -0.86% 6.58%
L2025 $11.75 -0.66% 5.27%
Linc $22.90 -0.31% 2.77%

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