S Fund Observation

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Tomanyiron
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S Fund Observation

Post by Tomanyiron »

The past four months, or so, the S fund (DWCPF) has been bouncing between 2060 and 2230.

Now that I have brought attention to the pattern, it will stop. :lol:

Image
https://schrts.co/VUcdBBZM
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daemon
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Re: S Fund Observation

Post by daemon »

I've noticed on the weekly chart we just closed below the 20 week moving average for the first time since May of last year. Also look at the monthly chart and see how far extended we are from the 20 period moving average. That is scary! I would attach images but there is no obvious way to do that. The img insert button wants a URL. I just want to upload a simple image that I've captured on my hard drive.
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Tomanyiron
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Re: S Fund Observation

Post by Tomanyiron »

daemon wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 9:39 pm I've noticed on the weekly chart we just closed below the 20 week moving average for the first time since May of last year.
Image
https://schrts.co/rMDEXvIw
daemon wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 9:39 pm Also look at the monthly chart and see how far extended we are from the 20 period moving average. That is scary!
Image
https://schrts.co/DnJPwKvG

wingchaser
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Re: S Fund Observation

Post by wingchaser »

Judging from the breadth of the candlestick (GAP UP 2.61%) put out by ^RUT on Friday, coupled with the fact that it is fast approaching it’s 50 SMA, the propensity (here) is for continued momentum for a 5-10 day period.

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/rut/charts

...Possibly!!!

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

daemon
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Re: S Fund Observation

Post by daemon »

Thank you Tomany for taking the time and illustrating those observations!
When the water runs deep my little dog frolics. When shallow, she drinks

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12squared
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Re: S Fund Observation

Post by 12squared »

daemon wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 9:39 pm I've noticed on the weekly chart we just closed below the 20 week moving average for the first time since May of last year. Also look at the monthly chart and see how far extended we are from the 20 period moving average. That is scary! I would attach images but there is no obvious way to do that. The img insert button wants a URL. I just want to upload a simple image that I've captured on my hard drive.
daemon,
Add your image as an attachment, then click the click the Preview button.
Put the cursor where you wan the image to be. Scroll down to Attachments, and click the Insert inline button
12x12 80p.jpg
12²
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
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daemon
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Re: S Fund Observation

Post by daemon »

Thanks. I did not see the Attachments tab at the bottom.
When the water runs deep my little dog frolics. When shallow, she drinks

wingchaser
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Re: S Fund Observation

Post by wingchaser »

Impressive candle formation for (both) ^RUT (S Fund) & SPX (C Fund). Long Lower Shadow can oftentimes signal the turn (or shift) in momentum.

Hypothetically (of course)...

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

BelieveGod
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Re: S Fund Observation

Post by BelieveGod »

Studying charts and trying to learn; Tomanyiron, I didnt realize the weekly and the monthly 20 sma could look so different for the same stock/index. thank you for your input here. Wingchser, Long Lower shadow can oftentimes signal the turn in momentum so the shift would be going higher? or lower?

wingchaser
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Re: S Fund Observation

Post by wingchaser »

BelieveGod: Generally, when the candle formation is @ the end of a downsurge, it oftentimes signals form-reversal. I’ll leave the brunt of the research up to you...

The converse of this would be a Long Upper Shadow Candlestick after an upsurge.

A good metric to compliment this analysis would Williams%R as a leading indicator of an overbought or oversold stock (or index). Some of the popular metrics (MACD or RSI) are trailing indicators.

A good back-test is to look @ a stock or index performance over a period of time to spot these trends for Long Lower or Long Higher Candlestick(s). I like to analyze 6-month charts in this manner.

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

BelieveGod
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Re: S Fund Observation

Post by BelieveGod »

Thanks

wingchaser
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Re: S Fund Observation

Post by wingchaser »

Market sentiment seems to be negative, might be attributed to possible inflation concerns & rising interest rates, along with tax increases. The INVERSE HAMMER in SPX is pretty ominous today, should the market move down (in the slightest) on Monday, I’m making my 2nd IFT to the G FUND. How ‘bout that for a tight leash?

How I long for the days where we had unlimited IFT(s) in our TSP accounts any given month.

It wasn’t that long ago (either)...

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

daemon
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Re: S Fund Observation

Post by daemon »

wingchaser wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 7:16 pm

How I long for the days where we had unlimited IFT(s) in our TSP accounts any given month.

It wasn’t that long ago (either)...
Fairly new to TSP investing. So we used to have unlimited IFT's per month? That would be awesome! When did that get taken away? Why did it get taken away? Who or why was it decided that 2 per month was good (I think it's bad). Is there anyone we can write to to persuade them to change it back to a higher number per month? Thanks.
When the water runs deep my little dog frolics. When shallow, she drinks

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Aitrus
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Re: S Fund Observation

Post by Aitrus »

I don't recall exactly when it got taken away, but the reason the TSP board gave is this: it costs more to allow for more trades. They discovered that a small group of investors were treating the TSP like a stock brokerage account instead of a long-term investment account, and the actions of the small group were causing annual administrative prices to increase for everybody else. Since their mandate from Congress is to keep costs as low as feasible for TSP members, they felt they had to restrict excessive trading.

Numerous campaigns - both written and otherwise - have been undertaken since then to get the TSP Board to change back, but to no avail. They're sticking to their position on the issue.

I'm sure there are others here who could provide a more complete answer, but that's the short version as I understand it.
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wingchaser
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Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: S Fund Observation

Post by wingchaser »

^RUT (S Fund) candlestick just depicted a strong GAP UP formation & surged across it’s SMA 50. Also of note, is the MACD just went POSITIVE with an important cross-over. Indication (here) is for possible, if not probable, positive upward momentum (in the short-term).

Here’s hopin’...

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

Post Reply

Fund Prices2021-06-18

FundPriceDayYTD
G $16.61 0.00% 0.60%
F $20.88 0.32% -1.49%
C $62.45 -1.31% 11.69%
S $82.88 -1.28% 11.70%
I $38.60 -1.78% 9.07%
L2065 $13.75 -1.45% 10.74%
L2060 $13.75 -1.45% 10.74%
L2055 $13.75 -1.45% 10.74%
L2050 $28.08 -1.17% 8.79%
L2045 $12.83 -1.10% 8.27%
L2040 $46.86 -1.03% 7.76%
L2035 $12.40 -0.94% 7.17%
L2030 $41.33 -0.86% 6.58%
L2025 $11.75 -0.66% 5.27%
Linc $22.90 -0.31% 2.77%

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