S Fund Observation

[bloobs]

^RUT (S Fund) candlestick just depicted a strong GAP UP formation & surged across it’s SMA 50. Also of note, is the MACD just went POSITIVE with an important cross-over. Indication (here) is for possible, if not probable, positive upward momentum (in the short-term).

Here’s hopin’...

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!

How strong is the correlation between ^RUT and the $DWCPF? Isn't the latter a much better proxy for the S Fund?

[Aitrus]

How strong is the correlation between ^RUT and the $DWCPF? Isn't the latter a much better proxy for the S Fund?

That was my understanding as well. When the S Fund first came online in 2001, it followed the Wilshire 4500. Then it switched to the Russel 2000 for a few years, and then transitioned to it's present index in the DWCPF.

[wingchaser]

If I had to guesstimate, I would say that they are “loosely-coupled”.

Thanx BLOOBS for your continued contribution(s) into these outstanding forums associated with this Fantasy Website...

AITRUS: Not only am I old, but I also appear to be Old-School!!!

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!

[clifbeliev]

I always appreciate technical indicators discussed; thanks wingchaser and bloobs

[KTSPcalc]

Wanted to bring Tomanyiron's observation back to the top of forum - "The past four months, or so, the S fund (DWCPF) has been bouncing between 2060 and 2230."

The S fund has peaked at $84+ 3 times this years before dropping back down to a low of $77+.

February 12 - $84.72 (dropped back to $77.38 on March 4)
March 15 - $84.15 (dropped back to $77.51 on March 24)
Apri 29 - $84.81 (dropped back to $77.80 on May 12)

Today (7 June) we made it back to $84 (almost to the penny).

Any thoughts from the crowd on S Fund trajectory? Are we going back down into the $70s? Think there is any more upward movement possible in the short-term?

[mjedlin66]

Wanted to bring Tomanyiron's observation back to the top of forum - "The past four months, or so, the S fund (DWCPF) has been bouncing between 2060 and 2230."

The S fund has peaked at $84+ 3 times this years before dropping back down to a low of $77+.

February 12 - $84.72 (dropped back to $77.38 on March 4)
March 15 - $84.15 (dropped back to $77.51 on March 24)
Apri 29 - $84.81 (dropped back to $77.80 on May 12)

Today (7 June) we made it back to $84 (almost to the penny).

Any thoughts from the crowd on S Fund trajectory? Are we going back down into the $70s? Think there is any more upward movement possible in the short-term?

Great notes! Adding to that, seasonal trends for June copied from Aitrus' Seasonal Musings:

Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.68%, PNR 61%
Last 20 years: CAGR -0.02%, PNR 60%
Last 10 years: CAGR 1.71%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 2.740%, PNR 60%

June is a pretty ugly month for the S Fund, but an outside good 2019 and 2020 has pulled up the numbers a bit from previous reporting.

The best years were 2000 (12.01%), 2019 (6.80%) and 1988 (6.17%). The worst years were 2008 (-7.63%), 2010 (-6.90%) and 2002 (-6.67%).

The S Fund is currently at 1.43% for the month.

[Chulke]

Wanted to bring Tomanyiron's observation back to the top of forum - "The past four months, or so, the S fund (DWCPF) has been bouncing between 2060 and 2230."

The S fund has peaked at $84+ 3 times this years before dropping back down to a low of $77+.

February 12 - $84.72 (dropped back to $77.38 on March 4)
March 15 - $84.15 (dropped back to $77.51 on March 24)
Apri 29 - $84.81 (dropped back to $77.80 on May 12)

Today (7 June) we made it back to $84 (almost to the penny).

Any thoughts from the crowd on S Fund trajectory? Are we going back down into the $70s? Think there is any more upward movement possible in the short-term?

Great notes! Adding to that, seasonal trends for June copied from Aitrus' Seasonal Musings:

Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.68%, PNR 61%
Last 20 years: CAGR -0.02%, PNR 60%
Last 10 years: CAGR 1.71%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 2.740%, PNR 60%

June is a pretty ugly month for the S Fund, but an outside good 2019 and 2020 has pulled up the numbers a bit from previous reporting.

The best years were 2000 (12.01%), 2019 (6.80%) and 1988 (6.17%). The worst years were 2008 (-7.63%), 2010 (-6.90%) and 2002 (-6.67%).

The S Fund is currently at 1.43% for the month.

What you're describing sounds like a triple top and the chart even confirms it....which means:

-A triple top is formed by three peaks moving into the same area, with pullbacks in between.
-A triple top is considered complete, indicating a further price slide, once the price moves below pattern support.
-A trader exits longs or enters shorts when the triple top completes.
-If trading the pattern, a stop loss can be placed above resistance (peaks).
-The estimated downside target for the pattern is the height of the pattern subtracted from the breakout point.

Someone with better charting skills than I could confirm my suspicions....hence I'm gonna exit the market temporarily to avoid any downward fall.


Cheers!

[tnwhiskey]

It appears that things may be lining up with seasonality for the S fund. Stay tuned

[sconey]

In a good way or a bad way?

[tnwhiskey]

In a good way or a bad way?

Good if you are in G or F because of the "seasonal" dip. Dip around the 9th and 10th and the big dip around the 18th and 19th. Many of the seasonal strats are in G or F until around the 25th of the month and then get back into S which is the seasonal monthly bottom.

[sconey]

Thx for the quick response. That's what I thought you meant, but just wanted to make sure. Good luck!