Buy and Hold anyone?

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Scarfinger
Posts: 810
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:00 am

Buy and Hold anyone?

Post by Scarfinger »

I have been reading and listening to Paul Merriman podcast. Also listened to the Bainbridge Community Foundation, "financial Education series" at https://bainbridgecf.org

https://bainbridgecf.org/news-and-event ... ial-future

I am halfway through "How a Second Grader Beats Wall Street" by Allen Roth.

I have also ran some Monte Carlo Simulation at https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/mon ... simulation

I am convincing myself that a Buy and Hold strategy is the best for me. Considering I have 12 years until retirement and that I am in the "accumulation phase" (new term I learned), I want the market to go down. Even for an extended period, years? would be good for me. The more bad years I put in the Monte Carlo Simulation, the bigger my portfolio balance was by retirement.

My ego? intuition? emotions? Chart patterns? seem to get in the way of me sticking to a
a monthly, let alone a daily seasonal strategy.

For myself, I believe I will be able to stick to a plan that requires me to do nothing... vs something.
Well, at most I may rebalance yearly.

Best wishes to all in their journey.
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
TimboSlice wrote: "People really need to stop overthinking this."
Paul Merriman 2 fund strat: (age - 25) x2.5 = TDF + balance into S fund or variation of

ProduceMan
Posts: 573
Joined: Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:01 pm

Re: Buy and Hold anyone?

Post by ProduceMan »

What’s accumulation phase?
Moneys’ Money Making Money (4M)

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bamablue
Posts: 246
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2012 11:40 am

Re: Buy and Hold anyone?

Post by bamablue »

ProduceMan wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 1:15 am What’s accumulation phase?
The accumulation phase refers to the time in the life cycle of an investment when an individual or an investor builds up the value of their annuity or investment... This is true because money that you have right now can be invested and earn a return, thus creating a larger amount of money in the future,

ProduceMan
Posts: 573
Joined: Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:01 pm

Re: Buy and Hold anyone?

Post by ProduceMan »

bamablue wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 6:52 am
ProduceMan wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 1:15 am What’s accumulation phase?
The accumulation phase refers to the time in the life cycle of an investment when an individual or an investor builds up the value of their annuity or investment... This is true because money that you have right now can be invested and earn a return, thus creating a larger amount of money in the future,
Thank You, yes, I believe everyone using TSPcenter is in the Accumulation Phase.
Moneys’ Money Making Money (4M)

megalush5
Posts: 14
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2016 6:44 pm

Re: Buy and Hold anyone?

Post by megalush5 »

Actually, my last 2 IFT's per my seasonal strategy were inopportune just by a day or two . missed gains 4+%. Thats kinda how it goes, but if my money was in the market for the rebound, and not in a "safe" fund, I couldve recouped my loss. oh well, maybe a hybrid style of TSP investing may suit my future....

Kal1981
Posts: 43
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2020 8:12 pm

Re: Buy and Hold anyone?

Post by Kal1981 »

Which strategy are you following?
megalush5 wrote: Sun May 23, 2021 8:47 pm Actually, my last 2 IFT's per my seasonal strategy were inopportune just by a day or two . missed gains 4+%. Thats kinda how it goes, but if my money was in the market for the rebound, and not in a "safe" fund, I couldve recouped my loss. oh well, maybe a hybrid style of TSP investing may suit my future....

Kal1981
Posts: 43
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2020 8:12 pm

Re: Buy and Hold anyone?

Post by Kal1981 »

I’ve read most of Bogles books, investor manifesto, etc. Most books preaches buy/hold because most strategies don’t work long term in beating the market. There’s a lot of public information on seasonal strategies and using historical prices to trade. If it was as easy as following historical prices, Wall St would have exploited this strategy, as would all the authors of these articles:

https://vantagepointtrading.com/stock-m ... al-trends/

https://www.cxoadvisory.com/calendar-ef ... -long-run/

https://medium.com/analytics-vidhya/s-p ... a112584b9f
Scarfinger wrote: Sat May 15, 2021 10:10 pm I have been reading and listening to Paul Merriman podcast. Also listened to the Bainbridge Community Foundation, "financial Education series" at https://bainbridgecf.org

https://bainbridgecf.org/news-and-event ... ial-future

I am halfway through "How a Second Grader Beats Wall Street" by Allen Roth.

I have also ran some Monte Carlo Simulation at https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/mon ... simulation

I am convincing myself that a Buy and Hold strategy is the best for me. Considering I have 12 years until retirement and that I am in the "accumulation phase" (new term I learned), I want the market to go down. Even for an extended period, years? would be good for me. The more bad years I put in the Monte Carlo Simulation, the bigger my portfolio balance was by retirement.

My ego? intuition? emotions? Chart patterns? seem to get in the way of me sticking to a
a monthly, let alone a daily seasonal strategy.

For myself, I believe I will be able to stick to a plan that requires me to do nothing... vs something.
Well, at most I may rebalance yearly.

Best wishes to all in their journey.

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