Anyone else hesitant?

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Chulke
Posts: 316
Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 10:25 am

Anyone else hesitant?

Post by Chulke »

My plan (85660) has me going to the F Fund tomorrow and staying in it most of the month...I am really hesitant that this will erode some gains I've made this year...Thoughts?



Cheers!
Cheers!

Current Strat: 85660
Current PIP: 32.3

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Darren_Fos
Posts: 6
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2008 8:27 am

Re: Anyone else hesitant?

Post by Darren_Fos »

Ditto this question. I was actually going to post something very similar. C fund has been treating me well for awhile, and I've been using the Seasonal TSP calculator for a few years.

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bloobs
Posts: 1083
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Re: Anyone else hesitant?

Post by bloobs »

Yes. It's counter-intuitive. There isn't a probable scenario for interest rates/yields to go down (for the immediate and long-term) such that aggregate bond prices will rise.
Anger and intolerance are the enemies of correct understanding.
― Mahatma Gandhi

If it's a choice between a difficult truth and a simple lie, people will take the lie every time. Even if it kills them.
― Paul Murray

Chulke
Posts: 316
Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 10:25 am

Re: Anyone else hesitant?

Post by Chulke »

Yeah....Think I'm gonna stick to the S fund for now...unless something crazy happens!
Cheers!

Current Strat: 85660
Current PIP: 32.3

Midway
Posts: 202
Joined: Tue Feb 28, 2012 6:09 pm

Re: Anyone else hesitant?

Post by Midway »

Stick with the plan!
100666 has me going to G tomorrow.

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Snapdragon
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Re: Anyone else hesitant?

Post by Snapdragon »

I have a handful of strategies. Half are in S most of the month and the other half are out most of the month, either in F or G. F has been crap and I share your concern. When I strategy says F, I would do at most 50%. Put the rest or all in G. My 2 cents. I'm 100% S right now and not sure what I am going to do yet.

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Aitrus
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Re: Anyone else hesitant?

Post by Aitrus »

I had an interesting discussion with somebody the other day about this. His suggestion was that if you aren't liking how the F Fund is performing, and are on the fence about the rest of the market, then why not go to L Income for the month? That way you take the biggest chunk of your money out of the market, but leave a little skin in the game in case you were wrong and you can catch a bit of the upswing.

Not saying if I agree or not, but it was an interesting idea that I thought might be of use to this thread.
Seasonal Musings 2021: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=18757
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

Chulke
Posts: 316
Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 10:25 am

Re: Anyone else hesitant?

Post by Chulke »

Aitrus wrote: Tue Jun 01, 2021 1:54 pm I had an interesting discussion with somebody the other day about this. His suggestion was that if you aren't liking how the F Fund is performing, and are on the fence about the rest of the market, then why not go to L Income for the month? That way you take the biggest chunk of your money out of the market, but leave a little skin in the game in case you were wrong and you can catch a bit of the upswing.

Not saying if I agree or not, but it was an interesting idea that I thought might be of use to this thread.
Definitely an interesting idea....hmmmm??
Cheers!

Current Strat: 85660
Current PIP: 32.3

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jdoma
Posts: 12
Joined: Tue May 20, 2014 12:18 pm

Re: Anyone else hesitant?

Post by jdoma »

Why not just go into G and protect your gains? I follow 77322 which is very similar to 85660 and it uses G instead of F for June. While I am not a huge fan of G, its been working great for my strategy, which I have followed to the letter this year. Also if you don't stick to your plan, then you really are not following that plan. I have lost more money thinking I was smarter than everyone else and usually get proven wrong (see 2018 in my Fantasy TSP). I have since grown tired of losing money.

23V23C
Posts: 59
Joined: Sun Sep 24, 2017 2:13 pm

Re: Anyone else hesitant?

Post by 23V23C »

Snapdragon wrote: Tue Jun 01, 2021 1:46 pm I have a handful of strategies. Half are in S most of the month and the other half are out most of the month, either in F or G. F has been crap and I share your concern. When I strategy says F, I would do at most 50%. Put the rest or all in G. My 2 cents. I'm 100% S right now and not sure what I am going to do yet.
I'm the same. Some stay in S until the 14th trading day, like 152300. But others have a move to F on the 3rd trading day, like 72022, but back to S last week of the month. I may split and move my Mil account one way and the Civ account the other way...see which one comes out ahead for the month.

PhilJohn
Posts: 327
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2017 10:38 am

Re: Anyone else hesitant?

Post by PhilJohn »

My plan says F, but my heart says G. Having a decent year and not wanting F to slow bleed my gains. Just going to keep my eye on a buy oppertunity while im exile.

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Anyone else hesitant?

Post by Tomanyiron »

"The future is not what it used to be", for the F fund . It's been tracking like a stock fund since March. Must be having an identity crisis. :?

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WilliT
Posts: 2
Joined: Wed Nov 20, 2019 5:24 pm

Re: Anyone else hesitant?

Post by WilliT »

My historical strategy is supposed to be in F as well. I have chose to tuck 70% in G, while 30% is split equally in C, S, and I. I was not able to take advantage of the S fund from Last march and ride it up, and I don't want to miss another opportunity to jump in at another Deep fall. Keeping the 70% ready to jump in at the low. thoughts? Comments?

PhilJohn
Posts: 327
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2017 10:38 am

Re: Anyone else hesitant?

Post by PhilJohn »

WilliT wrote: Thu Jun 03, 2021 8:58 am My historical strategy is supposed to be in F as well. I have chose to tuck 70% in G, while 30% is split equally in C, S, and I. I was not able to take advantage of the S fund from Last march and ride it up, and I don't want to miss another opportunity to jump in at another Deep fall. Keeping the 70% ready to jump in at the low. thoughts? Comments?
I actually like that idea and was heavily considering something simular.

wingchaser
Posts: 134
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Anyone else hesitant?

Post by wingchaser »

Both charts for SPX (S Fund) & ^DWCPF are depicting Long Lower Shadow Candlesticks today

https://hitandruncandlesticks.com/long- ... ndlestick/

which can, oftentimes, signal a short-term upsurge in a stock, commodity or index.

Still sittin’ in C Fund, so I’m all about optimism (albeit tempered) @ the moment...

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

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Fund Prices2021-06-18

FundPriceDayYTD
G $16.61 0.00% 0.60%
F $20.88 0.32% -1.49%
C $62.45 -1.31% 11.69%
S $82.88 -1.28% 11.70%
I $38.60 -1.78% 9.07%
L2065 $13.75 -1.45% 10.74%
L2060 $13.75 -1.45% 10.74%
L2055 $13.75 -1.45% 10.74%
L2050 $28.08 -1.17% 8.79%
L2045 $12.83 -1.10% 8.27%
L2040 $46.86 -1.03% 7.76%
L2035 $12.40 -0.94% 7.17%
L2030 $41.33 -0.86% 6.58%
L2025 $11.75 -0.66% 5.27%
Linc $22.90 -0.31% 2.77%

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