Does C have more room to run?
Moderator: Aitrus
Does C have more room to run?
Bueller? Bueller?
Re: Does C have more room to run?
Million dollar question! Powell, inflation,CPI, earnings oh my! (Head exploding emoticon). Should be an interesting week.
Re: Does C have more room to run?
According to the chart, the Bears say a significant pullback is inevitable. However, the Bulls say a new breakout is forming and there's some room for another run. Technical analysis make no sense anymore. The seasonals certainly do. Many popular strats are in "C" right now and it's been doing well <knock on wood>. "S" has been getting hammered hard recently and many strats go to "S" at the end of August. Perhaps there is something to this strat magic lol
Re: Does C have more room to run?
Interesting take. Per what some public figure technical analysts, the chart is showing: (1) It's well within the bollinger band, (2) RSI remains below overbought and the (3) stochastic is "embedded" about 80--all bullish signals for the short and perhaps mid-term.
But you're right TA is more of an art than a science to me, always has been, too much interpretation based off of unquantified information. Seasonals, on the other hand, are 100% based on high quality data. That's probably the magic that makes it work so well for us who practice it here.
Re: Does C have more room to run?
Exactly, while I like the complexity of TA, I hate the complexity of TA because there are sooooo many tools and charts that exist and eventually you will find one to "say" whatever you want it to say. I will certainly be a lot more cautious over the next several weeks and looking somewhat forward to getting out of equities for a bit with the move coming up soon.bloobs wrote: ↑Tue Jul 13, 2021 10:19 amInteresting take. Per what some public figure technical analysts, the chart is showing: (1) It's well within the bollinger band, (2) RSI remains below overbought and the (3) stochastic is "embedded" about 80--all bullish signals for the short and perhaps mid-term.
But you're right TA is more of an art than a science to me, always has been, too much interpretation based off of unquantified information. Seasonals, on the other hand, are 100% based on high quality data. That's probably the magic that makes it work so well for us who practice it here.
Re: Does C have more room to run?
Based on statistical analysis, C still has legs. However, they are more tired than they were a week ago.
As of today's close, the S&P is still in the comfort zone between +1 and +2 Std Devs above its mean on a 20 day basis. For reference, if we plotted any straight line (i.e. a constant slope) it would hold constant at 1.61 SD above its 20 day mean. Also, the S&P's 5 day MA is still moving upwards, and it's 5 day "slope" is still positive. However, its triple EMA [TRIX(5,9)] peaked a week ago and is flattening.
As of today's close, the S&P is still in the comfort zone between +1 and +2 Std Devs above its mean on a 20 day basis. For reference, if we plotted any straight line (i.e. a constant slope) it would hold constant at 1.61 SD above its 20 day mean. Also, the S&P's 5 day MA is still moving upwards, and it's 5 day "slope" is still positive. However, its triple EMA [TRIX(5,9)] peaked a week ago and is flattening.
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Re: Does C have more room to run?
"Does C have more room to run?"
Does the president have more money to spend?
Does the president have more money to spend?
Re: Does C have more room to run?
This is helpful12squared wrote: ↑Tue Jul 13, 2021 4:47 pm Based on statistical analysis, C still has legs. However, they are more tired than they were a week ago.
As of today's close, the S&P is still in the comfort zone between +1 and +2 Std Devs above its mean on a 20 day basis. For reference, if we plotted any straight line (i.e. a constant slope) it would hold constant at 1.61 SD above its 20 day mean. Also, the S&P's 5 day MA is still moving upwards, and it's 5 day "slope" is still positive. However, its triple EMA [TRIX(5,9)] peaked a week ago and is flattening.
A 20-day stddev well above 1 is not comforting unless its on volume-filled bullish tear, which is not the case here. Probable outcome for the C is it trades thin up and down for the next few days.
Re: Does C have more room to run?
Bloobs,bloobs wrote: ↑Wed Jul 14, 2021 7:03 amThis is helpful12squared wrote: ↑Tue Jul 13, 2021 4:47 pm Based on statistical analysis, C still has legs. However, they are more tired than they were a week ago.
As of today's close, the S&P is still in the comfort zone between +1 and +2 Std Devs above its mean on a 20 day basis. For reference, if we plotted any straight line (i.e. a constant slope) it would hold constant at 1.61 SD above its 20 day mean. Also, the S&P's 5 day MA is still moving upwards, and it's 5 day "slope" is still positive. However, its triple EMA [TRIX(5,9)] peaked a week ago and is flattening.
A 20-day stddev well above 1 is not comforting unless its on volume-filled bullish tear, which is not the case here. Probable outcome for the C is it trades thin up and down for the next few days.
I would not be surprised if C makes no great moves upward before most of the low-mid StdDev daily strategies suggest a switch to I, F or G next week.
The price of a steadily increasing asset (e.g. the G fund) will vary from +1.5 to +1.7 SD, over depending on the time frame (10 days=1.49, 50 days=1.68). A "volume-filled bullish tear" would appear as price climbing the typical upper (+2 SD) Bollinger Band day by day. Likewise, a strong decline would appear as price sliding down the lower (-2 SD) band. I suggest that the intermediate region between +1 and -1 SD is a limbo region where trend cannot be determined.
12²
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend – not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter
"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie
- Dean Witter
"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie
Re: Does C have more room to run?
Oh I didn't realize that even the sedate G fund's typical stddev is over 1 against a 10 to 50 day range. Important info for sure. On that note, I agree that the C ain't going anywhere far until the flip to G next week....probably12squared wrote: ↑Wed Jul 14, 2021 10:01 am Bloobs,
I would not be surprised if C makes no great moves upward before most of the low-mid StdDev daily strategies suggest a switch to I, F or G next week.
The price of a steadily increasing asset (e.g. the G fund) will vary from +1.5 to +1.7 SD, over depending on the time frame (10 days=1.49, 50 days=1.68). A "volume-filled bullish tear" would appear as price climbing the typical upper (+2 SD) Bollinger Band day by day. Likewise, a strong decline would appear as price sliding down the lower (-2 SD) band. I suggest that the intermediate region between +1 and -1 SD is a limbo region where trend cannot be determined.
12²
Re: Does C have more room to run?
Here are the multiples of the StdDev (xSD) of the G fund for intervals from 20 to 100 days. Although the interest rate of the G fund does not increase during most weeks, the price currently increases by 6 or 7 100ths of a cent each weekday. A large step (20/100th) from Friday to Monday adds irregularity to the data set, which increases the SD. Note that the maximum xSD value (in bold) occurs every 5 days, corresponding to the bump in daily change.
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“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend – not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter
"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie
- Dean Witter
"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie
- Tomanyiron
- Posts: 4973
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Re: Does C have more room to run?
S fund leads the C fund down. Not necessarily in a day, maybe takes a week or more, but it will follow.
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
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"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes
Re: Does C have more room to run?
My fear is that we're leaving the economy that Don built, and entering the economy that Joe is building. I hope I'm wrong . . .
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Disclaimer: The contents of this thread are known to the state of California to cause cancer. (As they always seem to know more than the rest of us)
Disclaimer: The contents of this thread are known to the state of California to cause cancer. (As they always seem to know more than the rest of us)
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Re: Does C have more room to run?
1st day in office & with the stroke of a pen, the current Administration took us from being the leader as the World’s Oil Exporter to becoming reliant (once again) on Countries that don’t always have our best interests @ heart.
On a positive note,
NRGU - MicroSectors U.S. Big Oil Index 3X Leveraged ETN
Is UP over 75.74% YTD...
Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor
On a positive note,
NRGU - MicroSectors U.S. Big Oil Index 3X Leveraged ETN
Is UP over 75.74% YTD...
Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein
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Re: Does C have more room to run?
Bracing for a serious Downturn based on Market Behaviour (i.e. Candlestick Patterns)...
Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein
Fund Prices2024-04-17
Fund | Price | Day | YTD |
G | $18.19 | 0.01% | 1.25% |
F | $18.68 | 0.50% | -2.85% |
C | $78.62 | -0.58% | 5.72% |
S | $76.27 | -0.89% | -1.07% |
I | $40.66 | -0.17% | 1.19% |
L2065 | $15.60 | -0.47% | 3.17% |
L2060 | $15.60 | -0.47% | 3.18% |
L2055 | $15.60 | -0.47% | 3.18% |
L2050 | $31.39 | -0.35% | 2.57% |
L2045 | $14.34 | -0.33% | 2.47% |
L2040 | $52.43 | -0.31% | 2.41% |
L2035 | $13.87 | -0.28% | 2.31% |
L2030 | $46.25 | -0.25% | 2.24% |
L2025 | $12.93 | -0.12% | 1.78% |
Linc | $25.29 | -0.09% | 1.55% |