Correction?

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Tomanyiron
Posts: 4327
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: Correction?

Post by Tomanyiron »

We are overdue for a correction, (not even sure if this is one yet). But everyone should know that markets don't go up forever. That’s why they call it a “correction”. If we have a major one, everyone will finally realize what happened. Two words: monetary policy.
Prediction is hard. Either you know that, or you’re in denial about it. The reason it’s hard is because the visible stuff that happens in the world is a small fraction of the hidden stuff that goes on inside people’s heads.

cashworth
Posts: 118
Joined: Mon Jul 03, 2017 11:18 am

Re: Correction?

Post by cashworth »

Inflation - up (maybe higher than expected)
Margin Debt - way up - https://ycharts.com/indicators/finra_margin_debt
Reverse Repos - setting new highs regularly - almost $1T per night now!!!
Interest Rates - near zero, watch what happens if they even mention raising them
10yr Treasury Yield - falling, super low
Fed Balance Sheet - https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetary ... trends.htm - plot their purchases against SPY, see who's pumping

The finance sector is a dumpster fire even though SPY is up 16% YTD, QE is still pumping, but cracks are forming. Yet, people want to blame their neighbors who vote for a different political party. Bob the Trump supporter is not the one pulling the rug, its the Hedge Funds stripping away trillions while the SEC fines them less than $1 per criminal transaction that netted them $100.

seawatcher
Posts: 88
Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2018 10:49 pm

Re: Correction?

Post by seawatcher »

Big rebound and hope it continues this afternoon. Any indicators this will continue tomorrow?
Good luck with your TSP and retirement plans!

wingchaser
Posts: 139
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Correction?

Post by wingchaser »

GAP UP Candlestick Formations for (both) SPX (C Fund), as well as ^DWCPF (S Fund)...

Yes, I came off of the Russell 2000 (from an analysis perspective) thru some urging...

indicates strong upward movement in the relative short-term. What’s needed (here) is for (both) indices to push thru their All-Time HIGH’S for a sustained rally to ensue.

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

wingchaser
Posts: 139
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Correction?

Post by wingchaser »

cashworth wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 10:13 am The finance sector is a dumpster fire
Of note (here), is the fact that I nailed 10% the last two (2) days on

FAS - Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares

in my ROTH IRA, though it could have been that the sector was beaten up (recently). I attempt to jump in & out of the HOT sector’s in a given moment for either Daily or Swing Trades.

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

VAmanBulls
Posts: 227
Joined: Wed Jul 24, 2019 8:37 am

Re: Correction?

Post by VAmanBulls »

Well my previous prediction in this post was correct. The big correction was noting but a fear reaction and we are back to new record highs. Earnings season is off to a great start. Outstanding. This is a big week for earnings and I don't expect it to be anything but great also. Stocks follow earnings. The S&P P/E ratio now is like 34. That's pretty high man, but the low interest rates makes it a non-factor, for now. I expect a sell-off when interest rates start to climb again. But remember you youngsters, don't miss a 40% gain to prevent a 10% correction loss. Stay motivated TSPers and Ride that Bull!

daemon
Posts: 15
Joined: Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:26 pm

Re: Correction?

Post by daemon »

VAmanBulls wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 8:37 pm Well my previous prediction in this post was correct. The big correction was noting but a fear reaction and we are back to new record highs. Earnings season is off to a great start. Outstanding. This is a big week for earnings and I don't expect it to be anything but great also. Stocks follow earnings. The S&P P/E ratio now is like 34. That's pretty high man, but the low interest rates makes it a non-factor, for now. I expect a sell-off when interest rates start to climb again. But remember you youngsters, don't miss a 40% gain to prevent a 10% correction loss. Stay motivated TSPers and Ride that Bull!
I hope you are right VAman. However IWM and Transports are still struggling (2 leading market indicators). If they were in line with the S&P I'd agree with you but I think the main S&P is being held up by just a handful of tech stocks. The equal weight S&P (I follow RSP for this) is lagging and is not as strong indicating breadth is very poor.
When the water runs deep my little dog frolics. When shallow, she drinks

wingchaser
Posts: 139
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Correction?

Post by wingchaser »

I love LONG LOWER SHADOW CANDLESTICK PATTERNS,

https://www.angelbroking.com/knowledge- ... andlestick

except when they “pop” @ the end of a recent upsurge, as evidenced today. This can, oftentimes, signal a downward trend in the short-term interim. I may have made my 2nd IFT today (prior to noon) had Operational Issues @ my Agency not become so prevalent. It would have “locked” me into the G Fund, but only for a maximum of a few days, as we are @ the months’ end...

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

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Fund Prices2021-07-29

FundPriceDayYTD
G $16.63 0.00% 0.77%
F $21.09 -0.15% -0.51%
C $66.32 0.43% 18.61%
S $85.20 0.43% 14.82%
I $39.19 0.69% 10.75%
L2065 $14.30 0.52% 15.19%
L2060 $14.30 0.52% 15.19%
L2055 $14.30 0.52% 15.19%
L2050 $29.03 0.42% 12.50%
L2045 $13.24 0.39% 11.76%
L2040 $48.29 0.36% 11.04%
L2035 $12.75 0.33% 10.18%
L2030 $42.40 0.31% 9.34%
L2025 $11.99 0.23% 7.40%
Linc $23.15 0.11% 3.92%

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