Correction?

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tspwizard1
Posts: 272
Joined: Sat Jan 23, 2016 5:33 pm

Re: Correction?

Post by tspwizard1 »

[Political comments deleted by moderator.]

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Aitrus
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Re: Correction?

Post by Aitrus »

tspwizard, drop it. Stick to discussing the market and investing without bringing up political issues.
Seasonal Musings 2021: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=18757
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

tspwizard1
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Re: Correction?

Post by tspwizard1 »

Tell the truth and they ban ya! Here is my take, invest everything you have in these markets! Everything is fine!

Political Issue Effect the Markets. Sorry. It is true.

McWinning
Posts: 69
Joined: Tue Jun 04, 2019 5:55 pm

Re: Correction?

Post by McWinning »

Chulke wrote: Mon Jul 19, 2021 12:47 pm So seeing todays blood shed I've been forced to ask myself 1.) if this is a correction? or 2.) just a random down day? 3.) How deep will the dive be? and 4.) Which TSP market/Fund is closest to completing it's correction?

Thoughts?
It seems to me that the market (S&P500), more often than not, bounces higher after touching the 50-day moving average. But your seasonal strategy, that I've also started following, would suggest a likely downtrend until late August. The Russell2000 closed below the Bollinger today; I would expect the S-fund to bounce higher in the short-term before the seasonally anticipated downtrend continues.

Side opinion:
I don't think the market cares much about covid. Volatility has always been present and naming the cause has usually been speculative.
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tspwizard1
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Re: Correction?

Post by tspwizard1 »

McWinning wrote: Mon Jul 19, 2021 4:58 pm
Chulke wrote: Mon Jul 19, 2021 12:47 pm So seeing todays blood shed I've been forced to ask myself 1.) if this is a correction? or 2.) just a random down day? 3.) How deep will the dive be? and 4.) Which TSP market/Fund is closest to completing it's correction?

Thoughts?
I don't think the market cares much about covid.
So what cased the black swan correction early 2020 in your opinion then if covid doesn't effect the market?

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Aitrus
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Re: Correction?

Post by Aitrus »

tspwizard,

Yes, political issues do affect the markets, however, you have to discuss the issues in an unbiased way - you weren't doing that.

You're not getting banned this time unless you push the issue.

Yes, the market dropped a lot today, and the market looks shaky. However, it's not the fault of one political party - which is what you tried to make it look like. There's many things affecting the market right now: COVID, inflation fears, OPEC just had a meeting, the FED appears to be unsure, etc. It's a lot of things, not just one exclusive topic, and that one topic is not being definitively affected by one party over the other.
Seasonal Musings 2021: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=18757
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

McWinning
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Joined: Tue Jun 04, 2019 5:55 pm

Re: Correction?

Post by McWinning »

tspwizard1 wrote: Mon Jul 19, 2021 5:00 pm So what cased the black swan correction early 2020 in your opinion then if covid doesn't effect the market?
That is a good example when most people agreed on the cause. But it then failed to hold much sway as the market made new all time highs, well-outside what I expected. So I should say: at this point, I don't think the market cares much about covid anymore.

tspwizard1
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Joined: Sat Jan 23, 2016 5:33 pm

Re: Correction?

Post by tspwizard1 »

Aitrus wrote: Mon Jul 19, 2021 5:01 pm tspwizard,

Yes, political issues do affect the markets, however, you have to discuss the issues in an unbiased way - you weren't doing that.

You're not getting banned this time unless you push the issue.

Yes, the market dropped a lot today, and the market looks shaky. However, it's not the fault of one political party - which is what you tried to make it look like. There's many things affecting the market right now: COVID, inflation fears, OPEC just had a meeting, the FED appears to be unsure, etc. It's a lot of things, not just one exclusive topic, and that one topic is not being definitively affected by one party over the other.
'that one topic is not being definitively affected by one party over the other'

This made me laugh out loud. Only all the data out there says otherwise! GL everyone. Its gonna be a rocky road to end 2021 in the markets! Stick and move is my advice. Trade the easy slopes. Don't camp anywhere longer than a few days.

acidfly
Posts: 20
Joined: Fri Nov 18, 2016 1:14 pm

Re: Correction?

Post by acidfly »

And ya'll wondering why no one comes to this site anymore. You push one side and went let us talk about who is really causing this shit.

Chulke
Posts: 345
Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 10:25 am

Re: Correction?

Post by Chulke »

I think the single biggest factor affecting today’s downturn was the inflation numbers, personal opinion there! Real world inflation I believe is much much higher than the fed is reporting and as such, investors know something is about to get dropped! Idk what yet but…it’s coming!


Cheers y’all!
Cheers!

Current Strat: Loosely following 152300 and 85660 more the former rather than the later
Current PIP: 33.15

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misfit
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Re: Correction?

Post by misfit »

Just as it was getting exciting. Lol.

PhilJohn
Posts: 336
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2017 10:38 am

Re: Correction?

Post by PhilJohn »

It's nice if you are ahead for the year. You can just sit in G and wait for a big correction, or better yet, a crash. Playing the dips can get you burned real quick.

Inflation is here and they just keep printing that money. I don't think I'll have to wait too long.

tspwizard1
Posts: 272
Joined: Sat Jan 23, 2016 5:33 pm

Re: Correction?

Post by tspwizard1 »

acidfly wrote: Mon Jul 19, 2021 5:28 pm And ya'll wondering why no one comes to this site anymore. You push one side and went let us talk about who is really causing this shit.
Amen. Well said. Like 10 people in here. Not like anyone is even here anymore.

VAmanBulls
Posts: 227
Joined: Wed Jul 24, 2019 8:37 am

Re: Correction?

Post by VAmanBulls »

ubascuba wrote: Mon Jul 19, 2021 4:38 pm
VAmanBulls wrote: Mon Jul 19, 2021 4:29 pm No big correction. Not yet. S&P will see the record high again in the short. As long as earnings remain strong (they are for now) I'm buying the dips. Bought more Apple and Microsoft today. I do think a 10% correction or more is sooner than later, but this is not it.
Just curious... what make you think it's not going to be a bigger correction?
Mainly because the underlying market still looks good. Only a few sectors (crude oil, electric EV and auto, financials for example) are involved in this sell-off. This was a delta variant COVID reaction in my opinion. Over reaction in my view. Spreads faster, but is it as or more deadly? Are we going back to ventilators and hospital ships? I'll let you all decide. Interest rate - 10 year yield, is still low (for now). Overall earnings growth is still strong, another reason this will not be the 'big one'. Keep an eye on earnings, expected earnings and that interest rate. Good luck to you

bigmatt
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2016 11:12 am

Re: Correction?

Post by bigmatt »

PhilJohn wrote: Mon Jul 19, 2021 5:52 pm It's nice if you are ahead for the year. You can just sit in G and wait for a big correction, or better yet, a crash. Playing the dips can get you burned real quick.

Inflation is here and they just keep printing that money. I don't think I'll have to wait too long.
I might be taking this advice. I feel like sitting and waiting until you see more stability or until you see what everyone is saying for the holiday season might be a good option if you're ahead.

As for the OP, I agree with Aitrus, I feel like there are multiple factors driving the market right now. The market doesn't like uncertainty or the unknown (from what I've seen) and that's kinda where we're all at right now.

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Fund Prices2021-07-29

FundPriceDayYTD
G $16.63 0.00% 0.77%
F $21.09 -0.15% -0.51%
C $66.32 0.43% 18.61%
S $85.20 0.43% 14.82%
I $39.19 0.69% 10.75%
L2065 $14.30 0.52% 15.19%
L2060 $14.30 0.52% 15.19%
L2055 $14.30 0.52% 15.19%
L2050 $29.03 0.42% 12.50%
L2045 $13.24 0.39% 11.76%
L2040 $48.29 0.36% 11.04%
L2035 $12.75 0.33% 10.18%
L2030 $42.40 0.31% 9.34%
L2025 $11.99 0.23% 7.40%
Linc $23.15 0.11% 3.92%

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