Timing Move into Market and the Fed meeting in Jackson Hole

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KTSPcalc
Posts: 37
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:22 pm

Timing Move into Market and the Fed meeting in Jackson Hole

Post by KTSPcalc »

Hi All,

A bunch of the well performing seasonal strategies have a move back into the S fund on Tuesday (the 24th). Sitting out all month hasn't been great this year, but that's life.

Here's the rub. The FED is meeting in Jackson Hole this week and Powell will give public remarks on Friday. I would speculate that:
  • If Powell leans into tapering, the market will fall off a cliff.
  • If Powell, moderates on tapering or says a decision is far off, the market will regain confidence and hit peak again.
The news is speculating that Powell will try to make sure the market doesn't freak out:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/20/fed-off ... -hole.html

So I feel a little trapped. The potential upside and downside are really big this week. Sitting out is the "safe" thing to do, but is it the smart thing?

Any and all thoughts on timing entries and exits in August would be much appreciated.

pilotric99
Posts: 42
Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2012 9:02 pm

Re: Timing Move into Market and the Fed meeting in Jackson Hole

Post by pilotric99 »

I put my IFT to S in before noon on Friday and also moved my personal funds to catch the upward movement of the day, after 3ish days in the red. My strategy has been off by a couple of days these past months, either locking in a multiday loss by going to G or missing a small rally. I looked at the VIX trend on Friday and the 50 day Moving Avg plotted against the S&P 500 (which has been discussed before in another thread) and pushed my chips to the center of the table (figuratively).

Only time will tell if it was a good move, but since I was scheduled to move to S anyway, I took the chance of catching the rise.

pilotric99
Posts: 42
Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2012 9:02 pm

Re: Timing Move into Market and the Fed meeting in Jackson Hole

Post by pilotric99 »

If I knew how to include a screenshot of the chart, I would. But alas, Im ignorant of such things and will include a link that I hope shows the moving average chart...if not, you can overlay it. Maybe someone more adept can add it to this thread.

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/ ... tive-chart

megalush5
Posts: 14
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2016 6:44 pm

Re: Timing Move into Market and the Fed meeting in Jackson Hole

Post by megalush5 »

I also jumped into my seasonal IFT early Thursday to catch the bounce Friday and hopefully momentum into this next week. I too have been burned by seasonal moves on a specific day w/o taking in account developing trends (red or green). These summer months are extremely volatile, especially with Fed talk and highly reactionary markets. just remember, you never have to YOLO 100% every IFT if you're "not feelin it"!

pilotric99
Posts: 42
Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2012 9:02 pm

Re: Timing Move into Market and the Fed meeting in Jackson Hole

Post by pilotric99 »

Wow, an early move to S has paid off thus far. I got in a day later than Megalush5, but I am very happy with the move thus far!

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12squared
Posts: 675
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2015 7:28 am

Re: Timing Move into Market and the Fed meeting in Jackson Hole

Post by 12squared »

pilotric99 wrote: Sun Aug 22, 2021 7:10 pm My strategy has been off by a couple of days these past months, either locking in a multiday loss by going to G or missing a small rally. I looked at the VIX trend on Friday and the 50 day Moving Avg plotted against the S&P 500 (which has been discussed before in another thread) and pushed my chips to the center of the table (figuratively).
The historical timetable approach based on the previous years is a great almanac, but we can't expect it to call every storm and dry spell. The collection of strats I've been all called for an IFT to S today, two days behind the recent uptick. Kudos to those who saw it coming. It would be great to have a reliable barometer to modify the timing. If the VIX is your preference, take a look at $SPX:$VIX and $DWCPF:$RVX, which seem to amplify the change in volatility.
pilotric99 wrote: Mon Aug 23, 2021 3:04 pm Wow, an early move to S has paid off thus far. I got in a day later than Megalush5, but I am very happy with the move thus far!
How about updating your Fantasy account along with your real TSP moves so we can all see how things pan out?
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend – not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter

"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie

PhilJohn
Posts: 392
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2017 10:38 am

Re: Timing Move into Market and the Fed meeting in Jackson Hole

Post by PhilJohn »

Took my profits today and tap danced to 80% G, 20% S. I think maybe I jumped the gun a bit to soon but it feels like a win right now.

Bubba823
Posts: 35
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2017 8:16 am

Re: Timing Move into Market and the Fed meeting in Jackson Hole

Post by Bubba823 »

Time In the Market Beats Market Timing.

PhilJohn
Posts: 392
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2017 10:38 am

Re: Timing Move into Market and the Fed meeting in Jackson Hole

Post by PhilJohn »

Good advice.

Ben Grimm
Posts: 1
Joined: Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:32 pm

Re: Timing Move into Market and the Fed meeting in Jackson Hole

Post by Ben Grimm »

Bubba823 wrote: Fri Aug 27, 2021 7:54 pm Time In the Market Beats Market Timing.
Bubba, by your comment, do you mean that you are always "in" the market (vs. moving in and out)?

Bubba823
Posts: 35
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2017 8:16 am

Re: Timing Move into Market and the Fed meeting in Jackson Hole

Post by Bubba823 »

Ben Grimm wrote: Sat Aug 28, 2021 10:54 am
Bubba823 wrote: Fri Aug 27, 2021 7:54 pm Time In the Market Beats Market Timing.
Bubba, by your comment, do you mean that you are always "in" the market (vs. moving in and out)?
Yes. I'm always in some combination of C and S funds.

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Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

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