A bunch of the well performing seasonal strategies have a move back into the S fund on Tuesday (the 24th). Sitting out all month hasn't been great this year, but that's life.
Here's the rub. The FED is meeting in Jackson Hole this week and Powell will give public remarks on Friday. I would speculate that:
- If Powell leans into tapering, the market will fall off a cliff.
- If Powell, moderates on tapering or says a decision is far off, the market will regain confidence and hit peak again.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/20/fed-off ... -hole.html
So I feel a little trapped. The potential upside and downside are really big this week. Sitting out is the "safe" thing to do, but is it the smart thing?
Any and all thoughts on timing entries and exits in August would be much appreciated.