Charts for Discussion

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Tomanyiron
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Charts for Discussion

Post by Tomanyiron »

Things look bad now, for the stock funds. However as I look for optimism on the road ahead, I see some possibilities. Links to the charts are below each.
We will see how it plays out.
Image
https://schrts.co/VNiXdURk


Image
https://schrts.co/gmBZtkHr

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Aitrus
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Re: Charts for Discussion

Post by Aitrus »

Interesting, Tomy. Thanks for sharing these. To me, this shows short-term downside, with long-term upside.
Seasonal Musings 2021: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=18757
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

wingchaser
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Re: Charts for Discussion

Post by wingchaser »

Big Iron:

I thought I had taught you better than this? Or is it “you” who continues to mentor me?

RSI is a Lagging Indicator & as such, should be used (primarily) as confirmation towards Stock Posturing.

A more reliable metric that I employ is Williams %R, This serves as a Leading Indicator & provides insight in the short-term movement of a given index or stock.

That bein’ said, W%R is in OVERSOLD territory & any movement off of that might be indicative of an ensuing short-term rally. There’s caution to be had (here) as the recent Candlesticks on SPX (C Fund) depict a SPINNING TOP CANDLESTICK

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinning-top.asp

which (ideally) could serve as a form-reversal pattern, though today’s price movement may indicate further sell-off. Also of note, is SPX is bouncing off of its 50-Day SMA & should that be breached, accelerated selling may ensue.

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Charts for Discussion

Post by Tomanyiron »

Thanks Chaser for replying. I saw your move to G, after I went to S, and I said Uh-oh, he saw something.
It's starting to feel like all I do is "chase".
wingchaser wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:41 am RSI is a Lagging Indicator & as such, should be used (primarily) as confirmation towards Stock Posturing.

A more reliable metric that I employ is Williams %R, This serves as a Leading Indicator & provides insight in the short-term movement of a given index or stock.
I think they both lag/lead about the same.
https://schrts.co/qpfAFkGp

CS patterns get too deep in the weeds for me. However you must know how to read them. Or doing something right. I'll be looking for your move back to a stocks fund.

tnwhiskey
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Re: Charts for Discussion

Post by tnwhiskey »

Thanks for the knowledge Tomanyiron & Wingchaser.

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Charts for Discussion

Post by Tomanyiron »

wingchaser, I see you have a pending IFT to C, If you don't mind, tell us what changed. Also see this update, (S fund following the script I wrote for it) :https://schrts.co/KYRmijyS

wingchaser
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Re: Charts for Discussion

Post by wingchaser »

Long Lower Shadow Candlestick (SPX) on Monday, followed by a 2-day UPWARD rally off of that “bottom?” seemed to confirm a reversal. I’ll also add that my Williams %R had a triple-bottom during that time interval.

We’ll see (though), a couple recent candles finished weaker towards days’-end.

Futures lookin’ positive (tonight) & SPX Index is above it’s 50 SMA, both positives for relative short-term strength. I chose to re-enter the C FUND because it’s the leading fund YTD; there’s an argument to be made, however, that the S FUND (Tech Heavy) is more OVERSOLD, therefore, due to rally more.

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

wingchaser
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Re: Charts for Discussion

Post by wingchaser »

Gettin’ ready to move into G FUND for my last IFT for the month.

I like the safe-haven strategy towards the end of the month (anyway).

Bargain hunters will “eventually” come in, but the catalysts (Default loomin’, Bonds+acceleration) have the propensity to drive the equity markets down even further (short-term).

GAP DOWN Candlestick (-1.75%) catapults SPX below it’s 50-day SMA…

UPDATE: Index closed near days’ low & accelerated downward last 30 minutes. Not a good indicator. Momentum going in the wrong direction.

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

wingchaser
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Re: Charts for Discussion

Post by wingchaser »

Attempting to re-enter the market after Continuing Resolution was extended last Friday, but can’t get two (2) consecutive UP days as CONFIRMATION that the market wants to, indeed, go higher.

IN THE NEWS…

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stock ... to+zero%29

Good (short-term) investment for anyone with ROTH IRA accounts…

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NRGU?p= ... c=fin-srch

Currently RANKED 3rd YTD…

https://etfdb.com/compare/highest-ytd-returns/

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

PhilJohn
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Re: Charts for Discussion

Post by PhilJohn »

It feels like I have been in G Fund forever. I was looking forward to the holiday earning season but I'm starting to doubt we will have one. I know the news has little to do with the markets but inflation is making me a bit skeptical. I'm fairly new at this game. I guess my next move will be to review market trends in times of heavy inflation for the months of Nov - Feb.

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evilanne
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Re: Charts for Discussion

Post by evilanne »

Let us know what you find out. You may want to look at August 2011 re: Debt Ceiling that Aitrus mentioned in his seasonal musings recently viewtopic.php?p=91822#p91822

wingchaser
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Re: Charts for Discussion

Post by wingchaser »

Mild Long Upper Shadow Candlestick (SPX)

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shadow.asp

caused primarily during sell-off in the last 45 minutes of yesterday’s trading session that erased 35% of the healthy gains for the day. Currently, downsurge has the index below it’s 100-Day SMA. Support seems to have established itself (recently) @ 4,275. Key Resistance/Support Levels also denoted @ 4,250 over the last 6 months. Should that be breached, index could slip back to 4,000. Might be sitting in G Fund for awhile…

UPDATE: Quadruple Top hit @ 4,325 today providing “extreme” resistance point.

UPDATE: Impressive recovery (thus far) today, hopefully we go GREEN.

https://www.investors.com/market-trend/ ... src=A00220

UPDATE: Nice Volume Support driving SPX to day’s HIGHS in waning minutes.

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
Last edited by wingchaser on Wed Oct 06, 2021 3:51 pm, edited 4 times in total.
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

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bloobs
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Re: Charts for Discussion

Post by bloobs »

wingchaser wrote: Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:22 am Mild Long Upper Shadow Candlestick (SPX)...Key Resistance/Support Levels also denoted @ 4,250 over the last 6 months. Should that be breached, index could slip back to 4,000. Might be sitting in G Fund for awhile…
I'm with ya. My unqualified opinion is that there's a > 50% chance the SPX is going to test 4000 before bouncing up later this month.

wingchaser
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Re: Charts for Discussion

Post by wingchaser »

GAP UP Candlestick (+ .90%) for SPX, though increasing Volume (late) is leaning towards Seller’s. Still made the move into C Fund to capture further anticipated moves above 50-Day SMA. Unfortunately, work got in the way of a move before 1215 hrs…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Charts for Discussion

Post by Tomanyiron »

wingchaser wrote: Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:51 pm GAP UP Candlestick (+ .90%) for SPX, though increasing Volume (late) is leaning towards Seller’s. Still made the move into C Fund to capture further anticipated moves above 50-Day SMA. Unfortunately, work got in the way of a move before 1215 hrs…
Wingchaser, I don't see your name on the Pending IFTs. Did you cancel it?

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Fund Prices2021-11-26

FundPriceDayYTD
G $16.71 0.01% 1.24%
F $20.92 0.78% -1.29%
C $69.26 -2.27% 23.88%
S $84.86 -2.44% 14.36%
I $37.89 -2.19% 7.07%
L2065 $14.44 -2.24% 16.31%
L2060 $14.44 -2.24% 16.31%
L2055 $14.44 -2.24% 16.31%
L2050 $29.27 -1.79% 13.42%
L2045 $13.35 -1.67% 12.66%
L2040 $48.68 -1.56% 11.93%
L2035 $12.85 -1.43% 11.06%
L2030 $42.73 -1.31% 10.19%
L2025 $12.07 -0.95% 8.13%
Linc $23.29 -0.47% 4.52%

Live Charts

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Under development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".