S Fund Tanking?
Moderator: Aitrus
S Fund Tanking?
What's the deal with the S Fund tanking daily for the past 4 days? Even the Fidelity small and med cap funds are up quite a bit today. Ugh!
Re: S Fund Tanking?
Gives me less and less confidence in seasonal strategies. Everything is pointing to small caps being the place to be in a high inflationary environment.
Re: S Fund Tanking?
Yes....but still doesn't make sense. Fidelity IJH (mid) and IJR (small) ETFs are both still up vs. S (dwcpf)?? Hopefully this will turn around sooner than later and get back on an unward climb.
- Scarfinger
- Posts: 811
- Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:00 am
Re: S Fund Tanking?
Its seasonal... and one season doesn't make a strategy. You have to stay with it so they... average out.
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
Paul Merriman 2 fund strat: (age - 25) x2.5 = TDF + balance into S fund or variation ofTimboSlice wrote: "People really need to stop overthinking this."
Re: S Fund Tanking?
As Scar said, a seasonal strategy is not a get-rich-quick daytrading method, where you expect gains with every trade. Heck its not even weekly, monthly or even quarterly. Its purpose is to return strong risk-managed results over for at least a year or several years. In the context of the TSP, one bad IFT does not equate to a failure of the strategy. It's the annual year-over-year results based on multiple IFTs that matter.
Re: S Fund Tanking?
I get it...just thought someone might have some reasoning for the diversion of the S fund (from everything else) over the last 4 days.
Re: S Fund Tanking?
Exactly. The methodology says that there will be good months and there will be bad months. No month is 100% to the positive every single year (except for the G Fund). If we expect to win 70% of the time, that means we also have to expect to lose 30% of the time. But we come out on top in the long run.bloobs wrote: ↑Mon Nov 22, 2021 1:30 pm As Scar said, a seasonal strategy is not a get-rich-quick daytrading method, where you expect gains with every trade. Heck its not even weekly, monthly or even quarterly. Its purpose is to return strong risk-managed results over for at least a year or several years. In the context of the TSP, one bad IFT does not equate to a failure of the strategy. It's the annual year-over-year results based on multiple IFTs that matter.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
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Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
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Re: S Fund Tanking?
My very early but objective reasoning is that the index's current top weighted equity holdings, namely:
- Square,
- Blackstone Inc.
- Snowflake Inc.
- UBER
- Zoom Video Communications, Inc.
- Airbnb, Inc. Class A
- CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.
- Marvell Technology, Inc
- Lululemon Athletica inc
have recently been underperforming. Also, 56% of the index is made up of finance, industrials, healthcare, oil & gas, and basic materials companies, which have been under pressure since last week. Tech firms only make up roughly 25% of the index.
Re: S Fund Tanking?
OK...that makes sense. Just wish I thought more about that before jumping back into S since its my last equity IFT for the month. Sometimes you win...sometimes not.
Re: S Fund Tanking?
Market breadth has been declining since last week, as indicated by the NYSE "Bullish Percent" index, and the NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 200 Day Moving Average.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BP ... 0627839623
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NY ... 0115709104
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BP ... 0627839623
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NY ... 0115709104
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend – not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter
"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie
- Dean Witter
"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie
Re: S Fund Tanking?
Zoom Video up 7% after hours.....for a few minutes ...
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- Posts: 16
- Joined: Wed Sep 19, 2012 4:32 pm
Re: S Fund Tanking?
I've been doing seasonal for several years. I make a bit of variations to it, but you just got to trust the process. If it was perfect, everyone would be using it.
Fund Prices2024-04-16
Fund | Price | Day | YTD |
G | $18.19 | 0.01% | 1.24% |
F | $18.58 | -0.32% | -3.33% |
C | $79.08 | -0.21% | 6.34% |
S | $76.95 | -0.41% | -0.18% |
I | $40.73 | -0.98% | 1.37% |
L2065 | $15.67 | -0.50% | 3.66% |
L2060 | $15.67 | -0.50% | 3.67% |
L2055 | $15.68 | -0.50% | 3.67% |
L2050 | $31.50 | -0.44% | 2.93% |
L2045 | $14.38 | -0.41% | 2.81% |
L2040 | $52.59 | -0.38% | 2.72% |
L2035 | $13.91 | -0.35% | 2.60% |
L2030 | $46.37 | -0.32% | 2.50% |
L2025 | $12.95 | -0.18% | 1.90% |
Linc | $25.31 | -0.14% | 1.64% |