Its seasonal... and one season doesn't make a strategy. You have to stay with it so they... average out.
7/30/21: Paul Merriman 2 fund strat: (age - 25) x2.5 = TDF + balance into S fundTimboSlice wrote: "People really need to stop overthinking this."
Exactly. The methodology says that there will be good months and there will be bad months. No month is 100% to the positive every single year (except for the G Fund). If we expect to win 70% of the time, that means we also have to expect to lose 30% of the time. But we come out on top in the long run.bloobs wrote: ↑Mon Nov 22, 2021 1:30 pm As Scar said, a seasonal strategy is not a get-rich-quick daytrading method, where you expect gains with every trade. Heck its not even weekly, monthly or even quarterly. Its purpose is to return strong risk-managed results over for at least a year or several years. In the context of the TSP, one bad IFT does not equate to a failure of the strategy. It's the annual year-over-year results based on multiple IFTs that matter.
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus
My very early but objective reasoning is that the index's current top weighted equity holdings, namely:
- Blackstone Inc.
- Snowflake Inc.
- Zoom Video Communications, Inc.
- Airbnb, Inc. Class A
- CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.
- Marvell Technology, Inc
- Lululemon Athletica inc
have recently been underperforming. Also, 56% of the index is made up of finance, industrials, healthcare, oil & gas, and basic materials companies, which have been under pressure since last week. Tech firms only make up roughly 25% of the index.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BP ... 0627839623
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NY ... 0115709104
- Jack Schannep
"Know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em"
- Kenny Rogers