S Fund Tanking?

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maxmoney
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Joined: Mon Oct 05, 2015 12:45 pm

S Fund Tanking?

Post by maxmoney »

What's the deal with the S Fund tanking daily for the past 4 days? Even the Fidelity small and med cap funds are up quite a bit today. Ugh!

maxmoney
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Joined: Mon Oct 05, 2015 12:45 pm

Re: S Fund Tanking?

Post by maxmoney »

Gives me less and less confidence in seasonal strategies. Everything is pointing to small caps being the place to be in a high inflationary environment.

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bloobs
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Re: S Fund Tanking?

Post by bloobs »

maxmoney wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 12:44 pm Gives me less and less confidence in seasonal strategies. Everything is pointing to small caps being the place to be in a high inflationary environment.
I think the $DWSCPF (S Fund) contains both mid and small cap equities.

maxmoney
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Joined: Mon Oct 05, 2015 12:45 pm

Re: S Fund Tanking?

Post by maxmoney »

Yes....but still doesn't make sense. Fidelity IJH (mid) and IJR (small) ETFs are both still up vs. S (dwcpf)?? Hopefully this will turn around sooner than later and get back on an unward climb.

Scarfinger
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Re: S Fund Tanking?

Post by Scarfinger »

maxmoney wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 12:44 pm Gives me less and less confidence in seasonal strategies. Everything is pointing to small caps being the place to be in a high inflationary environment.
Its seasonal... and one season doesn't make a strategy. You have to stay with it so they... average out.
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
TimboSlice wrote: "People really need to stop overthinking this."
7/30/21: Paul Merriman 2 fund strat: (age - 25) x2.5 = TDF + balance into S fund

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bloobs
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Re: S Fund Tanking?

Post by bloobs »

As Scar said, a seasonal strategy is not a get-rich-quick daytrading method, where you expect gains with every trade. Heck its not even weekly, monthly or even quarterly. Its purpose is to return strong risk-managed results over for at least a year or several years. In the context of the TSP, one bad IFT does not equate to a failure of the strategy. It's the annual year-over-year results based on multiple IFTs that matter.

maxmoney
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Joined: Mon Oct 05, 2015 12:45 pm

Re: S Fund Tanking?

Post by maxmoney »

I get it...just thought someone might have some reasoning for the diversion of the S fund (from everything else) over the last 4 days.

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Aitrus
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Re: S Fund Tanking?

Post by Aitrus »

bloobs wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 1:30 pm As Scar said, a seasonal strategy is not a get-rich-quick daytrading method, where you expect gains with every trade. Heck its not even weekly, monthly or even quarterly. Its purpose is to return strong risk-managed results over for at least a year or several years. In the context of the TSP, one bad IFT does not equate to a failure of the strategy. It's the annual year-over-year results based on multiple IFTs that matter.
Exactly. The methodology says that there will be good months and there will be bad months. No month is 100% to the positive every single year (except for the G Fund). If we expect to win 70% of the time, that means we also have to expect to lose 30% of the time. But we come out on top in the long run.
Seasonal Musings 2021: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=18757
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

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bloobs
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Re: S Fund Tanking?

Post by bloobs »

maxmoney wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 1:39 pm I get it...just thought someone might have some reasoning for the diversion of the S fund (from everything else) over the last 4 days.
My very early but objective reasoning is that the index's current top weighted equity holdings, namely:

- Square,
- Blackstone Inc.
- Snowflake Inc.
- UBER
- Zoom Video Communications, Inc.
- Airbnb, Inc. Class A
- CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.
- Marvell Technology, Inc
- Lululemon Athletica inc

have recently been underperforming. Also, 56% of the index is made up of finance, industrials, healthcare, oil & gas, and basic materials companies, which have been under pressure since last week. Tech firms only make up roughly 25% of the index.

maxmoney
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Joined: Mon Oct 05, 2015 12:45 pm

Re: S Fund Tanking?

Post by maxmoney »

OK...that makes sense. Just wish I thought more about that before jumping back into S since its my last equity IFT for the month. Sometimes you win...sometimes not.

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12squared
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Re: S Fund Tanking?

Post by 12squared »

Market breadth has been declining since last week, as indicated by the NYSE "Bullish Percent" index, and the NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 200 Day Moving Average.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BP ... 0627839623
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NY ... 0115709104
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend — not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Jack Schannep

"Know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em"
- Kenny Rogers

ripp002
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Joined: Sun Apr 26, 2020 4:55 pm

Re: S Fund Tanking?

Post by ripp002 »

Zoom Video up 7% after hours.....for a few minutes ... :(

silentness
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Joined: Wed Sep 19, 2012 4:32 pm

Re: S Fund Tanking?

Post by silentness »

I've been doing seasonal for several years. I make a bit of variations to it, but you just got to trust the process. If it was perfect, everyone would be using it.

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Fund Prices2021-11-26

FundPriceDayYTD
G $16.71 0.01% 1.24%
F $20.92 0.78% -1.29%
C $69.26 -2.27% 23.88%
S $84.86 -2.44% 14.36%
I $37.89 -2.19% 7.07%
L2065 $14.44 -2.24% 16.31%
L2060 $14.44 -2.24% 16.31%
L2055 $14.44 -2.24% 16.31%
L2050 $29.27 -1.79% 13.42%
L2045 $13.35 -1.67% 12.66%
L2040 $48.68 -1.56% 11.93%
L2035 $12.85 -1.43% 11.06%
L2030 $42.73 -1.31% 10.19%
L2025 $12.07 -0.95% 8.13%
Linc $23.29 -0.47% 4.52%

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