Seasonals below the mean

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daemon
Posts: 56
Joined: Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:26 pm

Seasonals below the mean

Post by daemon »

I noticed a lot of the Seasonals that I follow are well below the mean for this year. I know we have a month to go but many are looking to come in at their lowest in the past 15 years. For ex the one I follow
https://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=856 ... arks=C-S-I
When the water runs deep my little dog frolics. When shallow, she drinks

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12squared
Posts: 675
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2015 7:28 am

Re: Seasonals below the mean

Post by 12squared »

If 85660 holds at 11.4%, it will finish 2021 5.6x SD below its 2004-20 mean [(29.0-11.4)/3.1 )] − a definite outlier from the trend.

Consider that 85660 is in F 20% of the time. F's mean return from 2004-2020 is 4.5% with a 2.8 Std Dev. This year it is running -1.3%, or 2.1x SD [(4.5+1.3)/2.8 )] less than the mean − nearly 6 percentage points less. G is also sub-par − almost 1.2% in 2021, or or 1.4x SD [(2.9-1.2)/1.2] below its mean.

Time in F is not the only factor. Take a look at these six which have 0% F, listed in order of increasing SD.
https://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=856 ... 612-158100
The two {148233,92209} which had least variability (SD <3, mean <28) from 2004-20 are also lagging far behind their means in 2021. The others (SD 5.5 to 8.5) are running 2x to 0.8x SD below their means. The general trend is that the higher the mean from 2004-20, the better its performance this year. However, none is besting C fund − so far.

I would not expect stellar performance from equities this December. In the two years (2011 & 2015) in which the C fund's return exceeded this October's 7% following a negative September, its total return for the remainder of the year was less than 1%. The return of S in the same years was negative for November & December.

Enjoy the math.
12²
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend – not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter

"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie

wingchaser
Posts: 795
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Seasonals below the mean

Post by wingchaser »

12SQUARED:

Until just recently, I was hopin’ for December to push well past ATH(s), but now with this new COVID scare (worse-of-the-worse), I tend to agree with your Dec. Assessment, but for different reasons. I hope my panic selling proves me wrong, but movement(s) of Friday’s type are rarely “one & done” movements (in time)…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

Bubba823
Posts: 35
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2017 8:16 am

Re: Seasonals below the mean

Post by Bubba823 »

Seasonals are really a crap shoot in my opinion. I know, I know, they have decades of data to back them up. I've heard it so many times. But they're only good until they're not.

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Scarfinger
Posts: 810
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:00 am

Re: Seasonals below the mean

Post by Scarfinger »

Bubba823 wrote: Sun Nov 28, 2021 10:45 pm Seasonals are really a crap shoot in my opinion. I know, I know, they have decades of data to back them up. I've heard it so many times. But they're only good until they're not.
After running some "Monte Carlo Simulation", A stock market crash, correction or a few bad years always ends up making a larger retirement balance in the long run. That is one reason I am switching to a more buy and hold strategy for my last 9 - 14 years until retirement. Another big reason is I am not disciplined enough to stick to a seasonal plan.

Best of Luck!
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
TimboSlice wrote: "People really need to stop overthinking this."
Paul Merriman 2 fund strat: (age - 25) x2.5 = TDF + balance into S fund or variation of

wingchaser
Posts: 795
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Seasonals below the mean

Post by wingchaser »

SCAR(ed) ONE:

Buy & Hold is a strong proposition, indeed. Annually, there are 30-40 individuals that will invariably beat that Strategy here in this Investment Community & my goal (as a Market Timer) has always been to eclipse those numbers. There are times I find myself in the Top 40 (out of 20,000), many times I don’t..

But it’s not for lack of tryin’…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

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RugbyLarry
The Bearded Legend
Posts: 23
Joined: Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:32 pm

Re: Seasonals below the mean

Post by RugbyLarry »

66909 is right on target. GCS only, limited IFTs.

md2018
Posts: 184
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2010 1:17 pm

Re: Seasonals below the mean

Post by md2018 »

I am really beginning to hate Nov and Dec. I think I have lost more in these months than others. Primarily because I am more cautious in other months and usually bet that Nov and Dec tend to historically be positive. But apparently not in the last few years.

tnwhiskey
Posts: 73
Joined: Thu Dec 12, 2019 7:14 pm

Re: Seasonals below the mean

Post by tnwhiskey »

The fragility of the market is quite scary, especially in today's session. All of the major indices were up big early then when the first Omicron case was announced in CA, it turned into a bloodbath. Powell spoke today too & that didn't help either. Makes no freaking sense to me. Damn near 1000 point swing in the DOW & the S & C funds got brutalized as well. Past several days in S fund seems eerily similar to March 2020. Good luck to all.

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Fund Prices2024-03-27

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.14 0.01% 1.00%
F $19.09 0.26% -0.68%
C $82.11 0.87% 10.42%
S $82.19 1.48% 6.61%
I $42.68 0.56% 6.21%
L2065 $16.38 0.84% 8.36%
L2060 $16.38 0.84% 8.36%
L2055 $16.39 0.84% 8.36%
L2050 $32.73 0.71% 6.94%
L2045 $14.91 0.67% 6.56%
L2040 $54.37 0.63% 6.20%
L2035 $14.34 0.58% 5.77%
L2030 $47.66 0.53% 5.35%
L2025 $13.14 0.31% 3.40%
Linc $25.60 0.24% 2.79%

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