Selection

[Bubba]

Also this, a look back at the 2020 beer bet strategies, and how they would have done this year:

Note the 2020 winning strategy would have won 2021 too and it only uses C&S...

https://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=82& ... 104-111961

Funny, according to the TSPCalc blog, I thought you had chosen 138665. My mistake! Either way, I'm really curious to see what the process will be for your choice for this year.

Thanks!

Bubba

Edit: Silly me, I reread what you wrote. You didn't say you selected 2020s strategy, just how it was interesting that this fit in 2021 again. Apologies! I think I read that too fast. I'm still curious to your selection this next year. At this point, I'm pretty bullish through the beginning of May of next year, but afterwards...who knows!

[Bubba]

After reviewing a ton of strategies, I've dwindled them down to:

160726
131784
159932

Some reasoning behind these 3 selections:

1. They did well for mid-terms
2. Periods of some distress for 2006 and 2014 (that I'm looking at) went quite well for all 3
3. 2018 had decent returns, with the exception of 131784 which returned a healthy 15.42 (but not 20+)
4. 131784 did best during a higher inflationary period (2006). Also, inflation was on a downward trajectory from 2005, whereas the other 3 years (2010, 14 and 18) all had inflation increases from previous years.

Lots to consider.

I'm still interested in other people's choices. MJ, I'm sure, could include some into his beerbet for 2022.

Thanks,

Bubba

[daemon]

I was wondering, if we are heading into a more tumultuous year with interest rate hikes and high inflation if a switch to a more safe seasonal is in order? I was thinking something with a low STD around 3 to keep the monthly drawdowns minimal. So I simply put in 3 for the max STD and got back 82553. It has a CAGR of 22.38 and a STD of 2.84. Time in risky stocks around 46%. I especially liked it survived March of 2020 with a large gain! Would be interested in hearing your thoughts. Thanks.

[Bubba]

I was wondering, if we are heading into a more tumultuous year with interest rate hikes and high inflation if a switch to a more safe seasonal is in order? I was thinking something with a low STD around 3 to keep the monthly drawdowns minimal. So I simply put in 3 for the max STD and got back 82553. It has a CAGR of 22.38 and a STD of 2.84. Time in risky stocks around 46%. I especially liked it survived March of 2020 with a large gain! Would be interested in hearing your thoughts. Thanks.

Yeah, it seems like some of the guys I follow are calling for major drops during Q1 and others are saying we'll go to the moon next year. I'm following a short-term market timer, but it's very, very close to switching between "risk on" and "risk off." Sometimes the timer is changing daily. I guess we'll have to see, but calling it safe is a nice bet. Having over 20% CAGR in a year is an excellent return.

Best,

Bubba

[Bubba]

Ok, so this is the custom one I created the other day. I'm still chipping away at this strategy, but its interesting to say the least. It has pretty solid numbers for 2006 and 2014 as well. The only downside is that there is a lot of usage of the F Fund. From that perspective, I'm thinking we won't have crazy inflation next year, so the increase in the F Fund might not be that pronounced.

Here it is https://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=162359

I'm still interested in other choices.

Thanks to all that have mentioned your choices.

Best,

Bubba

Edit: I've been reworking my strategy and find myself here https://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=165454. I might change later throughout the year, but beware that we're going to probably have some pain coming our way the 1st half of the year. Good luck to all!