Just Like clockwork...

General TSP Discussion.

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Tomanyiron
Posts: 4973
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Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by Tomanyiron »

12squared wrote: Tue Nov 29, 2022 6:10 pm
Tomanyiron wrote: Tue Nov 29, 2022 7:25 am Chart Patterns Don't Work Anymore! :?
Why? Too many people know about them now.
These are the people that caused the problem?
0.0003% 12squared
0.0004% jatelle
0.0012% wingchaser
0.0033% Tomanyiron
:lol: it would be funny, if it didn't hurt so much :cry:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iu1AuSSp0UU
What do the percentages mean?
More or less a joke, about how we contributed to the problem by posting our charts.
The percent was just something off the top of my head, on the amount each of us posting and/or talking about different chart related indicators.
"Chart Patterns Don't Work Anymore because Too many people know about them now."

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jatelle
Posts: 316
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Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by jatelle »

jatelle wrote: Tue Nov 29, 2022 7:45 pm
Although the price has not yet broken below my "line in the sand" (100 SMA) I got cold feet and moved to G.
[/quote]

Bias is Bullish: This afternoon price rocketed up after Powell's remarks and broke through the 200 SMA. I sure regret now not following my own rules and staying in yesterday :oops: - Congrats to Tomany and others who held your ground - it paid off!!

daemon
Posts: 56
Joined: Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:26 pm

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by daemon »

Fri Nov 25 Bias is Bullish
Mon Nov 28 Bias is Bearish
Tue Nov 29 Bias is Bearish
Wed Nov 30 Bias is Bullish

That's 3 switches in 4 days. What's it going to be tomorrow if it turns out to be a big red day? What is the point of these statements? Even if your statements were correct and accurate our stupid TSP rules do not allow us to pivot that quickly. I just don't understand how these statements are helpful.
jatelle wrote: Wed Nov 30, 2022 5:26 pm
jatelle wrote: Tue Nov 29, 2022 7:45 pm
Although the price has not yet broken below my "line in the sand" (100 SMA) I got cold feet and moved to G.
Bias is Bullish: This afternoon price rocketed up after Powell's remarks and broke through the 200 SMA. I sure regret now not following my own rules and staying in yesterday :oops: - Congrats to Tomany and others who held your ground - it paid off!!
[/quote]
When the water runs deep my little dog frolics. When shallow, she drinks

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jatelle
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Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by jatelle »

daemon wrote: Wed Nov 30, 2022 8:49 pm Fri Nov 25 Bias is Bullish
Mon Nov 28 Bias is Bearish
Tue Nov 29 Bias is Bearish
Wed Nov 30 Bias is Bullish

That's 3 switches in 4 days. What's it going to be tomorrow if it turns out to be a big red day? What is the point of these statements? Even if your statements were correct and accurate our stupid TSP rules do not allow us to pivot that quickly. I just don't understand how these statements are helpful.
Daemon, good question. You are correct these statements are not useful for determining the overall Market Trend (Weekly or monthly) for TSP. I intended these biases merely to share price action in real time which naturally switches/alternates intraday between the bulls and the bears. Sorry if it was confusing. Although, I do find these intraday biases can be helpful if you are looking for specific IFT entry/exit opportunities at major support and resistance levels. For timing IFTs entries I normally look to buy on a bearish red day (or the day after) where price makes a higher low. For timing IFT exits I normally look to sell on a bullish green day (or the next failed follow day) that price fails to make a higher high. These intraday biases can help with this. For instance, the last few days were red days (bias bearish), however the Overall Market Trend (TSP) was Bullish because it made a higher low and held support (100 SMA) - no time to sell! Now if only I could follow my own rules. :roll:

Perhaps might it be helpful if I were to add Overall Market Trend/Direction for TSP? Or scrap the intraday bias altogether and only show the Overall Market Trend/Direction for TSP? Thoughts?

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12squared
Posts: 675
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Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by 12squared »

jatelle wrote: Wed Nov 30, 2022 10:09 pm Perhaps might it be helpful if I were to add Overall Market Trend/Direction for TSP? Or scrap the intraday bias altogether and only show the Overall Market Trend/Direction for TSP? Thoughts?
Which has been the better predictor given two IFTs per month?
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend – not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter

"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie

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jatelle
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Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by jatelle »

12squared wrote: Thu Dec 01, 2022 12:11 am
jatelle wrote: Wed Nov 30, 2022 10:09 pm Perhaps might it be helpful if I were to add Overall Market Trend/Direction for TSP? Or scrap the intraday bias altogether and only show the Overall Market Trend/Direction for TSP? Thoughts?
Which has been the better predictor given two IFTs per month?
The Overall Market Trend for TSP would confirm the trend after the trend has already reversed down or up so it would be a lagging signal. The Intraday biases would be a leading indicator for an IFT at major Support and Resistance levels (e.g. an SMA or Standard Deviation): Buy on a Bearish bias with a higher low at Support. Sell on a Bullish bias with a lower high at Resistance.

wingchaser
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Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

Infamous SPINNG TOP Candlestick

https://www.thinkmarkets.com/en/learn-t ... nning-top/

oftentimes, can denote a trend reversal. The fact that the 200-Day SMA served as a SUPPORT LEVEL, though, could bode well for continued Upward Momentum…

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/11/30/sto ... -news.html

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
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“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

wingchaser
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Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

What the heck is goin’ on, I’m trying to get back in for the Mother of All Santa Rallies…

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/12/04/sto ... eting.html

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
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“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

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jatelle
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Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by jatelle »

Bias is Bearish: Gold and silver continue to climb which is causing stocks to decline. Price fell below the 200 SMA and 200 EMA and the +1 Standard Deviation. As long as price stays below 403 we remain bearish for intraday trading.

wingchaser
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Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

Another candle as Indice’ stuck in Downward Momentum…

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/11/30/sto ... -news.html

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
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“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

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jatelle
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Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by jatelle »

Bias is Bearish: Today price broke below the 100 SMA and then bounced back up. Note: previously on Nov 17 price bounced off the 100 SMA without breaking it. As long as price stays below the +1 Standard Deviation (currently at about 402) then we remain bearish for intraday trading.

wingchaser
Posts: 795
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

jatelle wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 9:18 pm Bias is Bearish: Today price broke below the 100 SMA and then bounced back up. Note: previously on Nov 17 price bounced off the 100 SMA without breaking it. As long as price stays below the +1 Standard Deviation (currently at about 402) then we remain bearish for intraday trading.
Serious SUPPORT (here), elsewise it’s down she goes…

More than likely down to 3,750…

Chairman Powell hold us in the palm of his hands!!!

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

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jatelle
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Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by jatelle »

wingchaser wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 9:35 pm
Serious SUPPORT (here), elsewise it’s down she goes…

More than likely down to 3,750…
[/quote]

Yes, agreed. I am not optimistic it will hold the 100 SMA. Below this it may briefly bounce off the 50 SMA but then it will flush to the MEAN of the Standard Deviation at 3,750.

wingchaser
Posts: 795
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

Infamous INVERSE HAMMER oftentimes denotes a reversal in trend, checking the Premarket

https://www.cnn.com/business/markets/premarkets

that may, indeed, be the case…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
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“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

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jatelle
Posts: 316
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Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by jatelle »

Bias is Bullish: for Friday's intraday trading. We could see a bounce like we saw on Aug 25 before it flushed. As long as price on SPY stays above 396 we remain bullish.

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