Just Like clockwork...

[12squared]

Today's big rally reminds me that I need to STOP listening to the news and the crises of the day.

March market winds are fickle.


Using breadth as my barometer, I've stayed in G for 6 weeks now – one of the longest stretches since I began playing this game in 2016.

Watch the numbers, not the lips.

12²

[jimcasada]

Today's big rally reminds me that I need to STOP listening to the news and the crises of the day.

March market winds are fickle.


Using breadth as my barometer, I've stayed in G for 6 weeks now – one of the longest stretches since I began playing this game in 2016.

Watch the numbers, not the lips.

12²

I've been in in G longer than that. Switched to S, effective at the end of today.

[wingchaser]

Today's big rally reminds me that I need to STOP listening to the news and the crises of the day.

March market winds are fickle.


Using breadth as my barometer, I've stayed in G for 6 weeks now – one of the longest stretches since I began playing this game in 2016.

Watch the numbers, not the lips.

12²

I've been in in G longer than that. Switched to S, effective at the end of today.

JIMBO:

You’re ridin’ in Retirement with some pretty “strong” Market Skills, we all could take heed…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!

[jatelle]

Email from Grow My TSP. Thoughts?

[daemon]

Given our 2 moves per month limitation, we simply CANNOT react quickly to these changing environments. While I am not staying 100% in stocks all the time, I also don't think staying 100% G is wise because you can miss the big moves up. During the past year I have been in a low allocation (20-40%) stocks. The brief times I tried to get bold by moving more money in, the market took a dive and so I backed off. However, my experience is that as soon as I move 100%G, more often than not, the market goes up (happened in January and I missed that move up). So I am staying close to the middle with a bias, for now, on the defensive side.

[jimcasada]

March market winds are fickle.


Using breadth as my barometer, I've stayed in G for 6 weeks now – one of the longest stretches since I began playing this game in 2016.

Watch the numbers, not the lips.

12²

I've been in in G longer than that. Switched to S, effective at the end of today.

JIMBO:

You’re ridin’ in Retirement with some pretty “strong” Market Skills, we all could take heed…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!

Thank you. I've been doing this since about 2001, whenever the military was first allowed into TSP.

My thinking in getting back in right now is that there are several ways to get around the FDIC's $250k limits: spreading your money over different banks, creating accounts with different ownership categories, etc. I suspect that's what was mostly happening at US banks last week. Folks were taking excess money out, but these same banks had money coming in from folks moving excess funds into new accounts. Overall, most banks that do a lot of revolving credit are actually really in good shape, but banks that are stuck with bonds and loans that were made at very low interest from a few years ago may need some help.

I think the whole US banking thing will stablize for now, but I'm not as sure about international banks, so S fund probably is the safer bet right now. The main thing I'm watching this week will be the Fed's next interest decision this Wednesday.

[jatelle]

SPY grinded higher this past week up about 2.5% since last week Monday's March 13 close. This is despite net premiums of options being heavily bearish (net puts>calls). If there is to be a sustained rally SPY will need to get above and stay above the 50 SMA (currently at 400.5) and the +1 Standard Deviation (currently at 406).

[wingchaser]

I’ve heard one (1) talkin’ head (Bloomberg) talk about how this market has had everything thrown @ it & still insists on going up; another (Fox Business News) calls her lil’ FaceTime The Power Hour…

After watchin’ the last hour of trading action in the market (today), I’m not sure either has hit the mark!!!

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/27/stock-m ... dates.html

This one (1) & done action (monthly) WITH MY MONEY is gettin’ old…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!

[Tomanyiron]

"New Highs and New Lows represent the number of all stocks making the new 52-week highs or lows. The ratio of New Highs/Lows is a Breadth indicator and is used to evaluate sentiment."
"The divergence between the price trend and the New Highs & New Lows movement could be a signal of change in the market sentiment and as a result may lead to the changes in price trend direction."

[12squared]

Market breadth is on the rise again, as it was in early January.

NYSE breadth 29Dec22-28Mar23+.png

NYSE summation index is acting similarly.

NYSE SI 29Dec22-28Mar23+.png

[daemon]

Tomany, I like that graph you show. Can you give us a perma link to it so we can add to our arsenal? Thanks!

"New Highs and New Lows represent the number of all stocks making the new 52-week highs or lows. The ratio of New Highs/Lows is a Breadth indicator and is used to evaluate sentiment."
"The divergence between the price trend and the New Highs & New Lows movement could be a signal of change in the market sentiment and as a result may lead to the changes in price trend direction."

[Tomanyiron]

Tomany, I like that graph you show. Can you give us a perma link to it so we can add to our arsenal? Thanks!

Your Welcome
https://schrts.co/rFaiRnbf

[kilogram]

12squared, I don't know if you're psychic or what, but you've been making some killer decisions lately! if its okay with you, I think I'll start copying your moves going forward.

[12squared]

12squared, I don't know if you're psychic or what, but you've been making some killer decisions lately! if its okay with you, I think I'll start copying your moves going forward.

It's been more observation than prediction. For a long time I had been watching weathervanes and windsocks to get a sense of market direction. Recently I have found a few decent barometers – slow to change, but more consistent when they do.

Torricelli was the real genius.

[Tomanyiron]

12squared, I don't know if you're psychic or what, but you've been making some killer decisions lately! if its okay with you, I think I'll start copying your moves going forward.

It's been more observation than prediction. For a long time I had been watching weathervanes and windsocks to get a sense of market direction. Recently I have found a few decent barometers – slow to change, but more consistent when they do.

Torricelli was the real genius.

"Training is useful but there is no substitute for experience." Lotte Lenya quote