Just Like clockwork...

General TSP Discussion.

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harpole
Posts: 84
Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2017 9:25 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by harpole »

umberto wrote: Wed Apr 27, 2022 11:17 am
wingchaser wrote: Wed Apr 27, 2022 10:54 am
harpole wrote: Wed Apr 27, 2022 10:19 am I need to stop watching the markets and this site.... Just need to relax and let dollar cost averaging run it's course.
There’s a lot to said about this form of posturing. If a person can’t beat a Buy & Hold strategy on a regular basis, they shouldn’t even try…

Having said that, you (WE THE PEOPLE) needn’t take a 20% loss…

Ever!!!

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
Yep, and if you are following a strategy, sometimes they make a little sense. Would have missed big loss yesterday had I followed my strategy. Holding…
My strategy got me into this situation. I was doing great all year (held #1 spot for some time) doing my own analysis, then decided to stay in S (greed :twisted: ) early this month, because all the strategies I somewhat-follow had me there most of the month. I was then to move back to G yesterday, but decided against that and will stay for the next bounce ( :? ).

I keep telling myself that in the short term it will be painful, but I don't have to retire for at least another 13 years. Praying things improve later in the year, because we got to keep up with inflation.. Good luck everyone.
Also, remember the Government knows what's best for all of us and is here to help.. :?

wingchaser
Posts: 475
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

Screaming’ volume right up until the close & index closes near sessions’ LOW…

Positive nonetheless!!!

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
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“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

wingchaser
Posts: 475
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

Whomever saw this rebound comin’ & the extent of the upsurge…

Raise your hands!!!

More than a dead-cat bounce, I would hope…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
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“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

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bloobs
Posts: 1363
Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 8:00 pm

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by bloobs »

I'm guessin' you're guessin' we're all just guessin'

Right?

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Tomanyiron
Posts: 4669
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by Tomanyiron »

It looks like a market "kleptocracy" going on to me. :roll:

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12squared
Posts: 484
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2015 7:28 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by 12squared »

harpole wrote: Wed Apr 27, 2022 11:39 am My strategy got me into this situation. I was doing great all year (held #1 spot for some time) doing my own analysis, then decided to stay in S (greed :twisted: ) early this month, because all the strategies I somewhat-follow had me there most of the month. I was then to move back to G yesterday, but decided against that and will stay for the next bounce ( :? ).
ashes, ashes, we all fall down!
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend — not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter

"You'll have to adapt or you'll be out of style."
- Robert Smith

wingchaser
Posts: 475
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

Once again, index closes @ sessions’ Low…

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/29/investin ... index.html

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
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“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

md2018
Posts: 168
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2010 1:17 pm

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by md2018 »

Haven’t felt this miserable since 2008. When it seems the darkest of the night then it should start to lighten. It seems pretty dark right now but of course the market dropped 60% from Nov 2007 to March 2009. So we are either at the darkest point or the night has just begun.

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12squared
Posts: 484
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2015 7:28 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by 12squared »

md2018 wrote: Fri Apr 29, 2022 8:37 pm Haven’t felt this miserable since 2008. When it seems the darkest of the night then it should start to lighten. It seems pretty dark right now but of course the market dropped 60% from Nov 2007 to March 2009. So we are either at the darkest point or the night has just begun.
Image
As when the sun disappears in the sky, market downturns and reversals can be fleeting like an eclipse, cyclical like a winter's night, or longer lasting like after a volcanic eruption. I suspect we are witnessing the aftereffects of the latter.

Image
Mt. Fed was awakened suddenly by the COVID earthquake. Even as it seemed civilization would be broken as the earth itself, the once dormant giant brightened the skies day and night spewing liquidity into the market sky.

The lava flow has now ceased, but the ash cloud of central bank excess encircling the globe will take much longer to work its way out of the atmosphere than the lava took to cool.
Image
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend — not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter

"You'll have to adapt or you'll be out of style."
- Robert Smith

wingchaser
Posts: 475
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

Another look @ possible hedge posturing (ROTH IRA)…

Entry point into SOXS - Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X Shares @ 0958 hrs. ($49.15). Confirmation included Huge Volume Spike & Williams %R > -85…

Days’ gain was >10%

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-QvZ-HpaJNY

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
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“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

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jimcasada
Posts: 163
Joined: Mon Jan 12, 2015 4:40 pm

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by jimcasada »

12squared, interesting take. Are you some kind of writer/artist?

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12squared
Posts: 484
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2015 7:28 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by 12squared »

jimcasada wrote: Sun May 01, 2022 7:14 pm 12squared, interesting take. Are you some kind of writer/artist?
Just an honorary degree in Metaphorical Language, earned through years of explaining technical concepts in terms that my audiences can relate to their own experiences.
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend — not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter

"You'll have to adapt or you'll be out of style."
- Robert Smith

wingchaser
Posts: 475
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

Screaming’ Buy Volume heading right up until the close. Beautiful Long Lower Shadow Candlestick which “typically” would be a good benchmark for a reversal. But these are anything but normal times…

https://www.reuters.com/business/global ... 022-05-02/

Need to see significant continuation (uptrend) before a re-entry. 12squared & Tomanyiron can both attest that one (1) day does not a trend make. 3-5 days (in succession) would be nice (here). Fed decision towards aggressive tightening measures looming on Wednesday…

Added note: China lockdowns are going to have a dramatic effect on supply chains going forward…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
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“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

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Tomanyiron
Posts: 4669
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by Tomanyiron »

Wing, thanks for the mention. but I have done nothing very good (measured by moving up on the leaderboard), besides staying in G.
The Market is too crazy now for us 'normes". No matter how much you want it to go back up, you can't make it happen. 1-2% up one day, 1-3% down the next, it's a gambling parlor. Too many people learned about trend following, so it had to be 'canceled'. Wall Street wasn't making enough money on that way of investing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ObyCOP36LH8

wingchaser
Posts: 475
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

Not the best action towards positive momentum that I’ve seen, though it may be the best we could hope for given the circumstances…

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-ma ... 36680.html

I think I got burned (last time) with a Sell on the Rumor, Buy on the News proposition…

Glad I’m sitting in Treasuries @ the moment!!!

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
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“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

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Fund Prices2022-06-23

FundPriceDayYTD
G $16.92 0.01% 1.09%
F $18.70 0.37% -10.46%
C $57.73 0.96% -19.76%
S $60.75 1.72% -27.19%
I $31.69 -0.31% -19.66%
L2065 $11.82 0.62% -20.59%
L2060 $11.82 0.62% -20.59%
L2055 $11.82 0.62% -20.58%
L2050 $24.70 0.54% -17.73%
L2045 $11.39 0.51% -16.70%
L2040 $42.04 0.47% -15.57%
L2035 $11.25 0.44% -14.31%
L2030 $37.92 0.40% -12.97%
L2025 $11.14 0.28% -9.07%
Linc $22.33 0.17% -4.93%

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