Just Like clockwork...

General TSP Discussion.

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wingchaser
Posts: 600
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

June’s Low is within eyeshot, here’s Hopin’ we don’t breach that Support Level…

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/20/stock-m ... shtml.html

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
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“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

wingchaser
Posts: 600
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

Not a comfortin’ sentiment…

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/us ... vid-bossie

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

wingchaser
Posts: 600
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

Unbelievably Steep Declines throughout the day, negating any Positive Momentum…

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/21/stock-m ... -news.html

PERFECT TIMING (Sarcasm): FOMC Minutes from yesterday’s Rate Hike Decision will become available @ the same time as 3rd Qtr Earnings begin (in earnest)…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
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“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

wingchaser
Posts: 600
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

Can’t re-enter the market until Friday, 1-Oct-22,but based on this LONG LOWER SHADOW CANDLESTICK formation

https://www.angelone.in/knowledge-cente ... andlestick

It’s sure tempting nonetheless. Need added CONFIRMATION of a couple consecutive days that momentum may be trending in a positive direction…

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/22/futures ... -offs.html

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
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“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

jatelle
Posts: 50
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2015 1:36 pm

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by jatelle »

The SPY could rebound on Monday/Tuesday but it would only be a dead cat bounce (fizzle at 375 or maybe 378). IMO, it first WANTS to drop to the -1 standard deviation (dotted orange line around 357) at which point it will EITHER continue to flush towards the -2 standard deviation (dotted green line at 329), OR it will rebound back up towards the mean standard deviation (dotted white line around 387).
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bloobs
Posts: 1403
Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 8:00 pm

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by bloobs »

jatelle wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:37 pm The SPY could rebound on Monday/Tuesday but it would only be a dead cat bounce (fizzle at 375 or maybe 378). IMO, it first WANTS to drop to the -1 standard deviation (dotted orange line around 357) at which point it will EITHER continue to flush towards the -2 standard deviation (dotted green line at 329), OR it will rebound back up towards the mean standard deviation (dotted white line around 387).
jatelle, which MA are you basing std. devs?

jatelle
Posts: 50
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2015 1:36 pm

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by jatelle »

bloobs wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:47 am
jatelle wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:37 pm The SPY could rebound on Monday/Tuesday but it would only be a dead cat bounce (fizzle at 375 or maybe 378). IMO, it first WANTS to drop to the -1 standard deviation (dotted orange line around 357) at which point it will EITHER continue to flush towards the -2 standard deviation (dotted green line at 329), OR it will rebound back up towards the mean standard deviation (dotted white line around 387).
jatelle, which MA are you basing std. devs?
Hi Bloobs. Like longer time frame Moving Averages (i.e. 50, 100 and 200), Standard Deviations can be very strong levels of support and resistance. Price likes to move from one statistical deviation to the next and usually swings between the +1 and -1 deviations and sometimes between the +2 and -2 deviations, and occasionally between the +3/-3, but rarely between the +4/-4 deviations. I use a Standard Deviation study that I purchased from BoilerRoomTrading for use in my ThinkorSwim platform. It is very helpful for Day trading and TSP investing alike. The study includes 4 standard deviation time frames. Each of the these deviation time frames is charted and color-coded by degree that price deviates plus or minus from the Mean (0). The Mean (0 deviation) is white; and +1/-1 deviations are orange; and +2/-2 deviations are green, +3/-3 deviations are teal blue; +4/-4 deviations are purple. I attached a sample of the Mean (0) deviation in white charting all four standard deviation time frames:
Six Month/Day (this is the closest and in fact the only way to simulate 180 Day/4 Hour on an intra-day chart)
1 Year/Day
1 Year/Week **(Note - Needs at least 1-4 days of chart data to work, depending on where we are in the week)
1 Year/Month **(Note - Needs at least 1-20 days of chart data to work, depending on where we are in the month)

I chart all of the deviations except the "1 Year/Month"(I don't find it is commonly a support or resistance for price).
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bloobs
Posts: 1403
Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 8:00 pm

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by bloobs »

jatelle wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 3:04 pm
bloobs wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:47 am jatelle, which MA are you basing std. devs?
Hi Bloobs. Like longer time frame Moving Averages (i.e. 50, 100 and 200), Standard Deviations can be very strong levels of support and resistance. ...
Thanks Jatelle. I asked because in the past I've used Tableau Public loaded with daily stock or any index price data to come up with a line chart of common moving averages (depending on my trading buy/sell timeframe as you noted; 18 day for short, 50 day for mid and 200 day for long), then overlay each MA's 1st and 2nd standard deviation ranges on top to identify probable support and resistance levels. I liked it because its was free and doing it myself removed the chance of possible "developer bias" injected into the charts :lol:

jatelle
Posts: 50
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2015 1:36 pm

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by jatelle »

bloobs wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 3:30 pm
jatelle wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 3:04 pm
bloobs wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:47 am jatelle, which MA are you basing std. devs?
Hi Bloobs. Like longer time frame Moving Averages (i.e. 50, 100 and 200), Standard Deviations can be very strong levels of support and resistance. ...
Thanks Jatelle. I asked because in the past I've used Tableau Public loaded with daily stock or any index price data to come up with a line chart of common moving averages (depending on my trading buy/sell timeframe as you noted; 18 day for short, 50 day for mid and 200 day for long), then overlay each MA's 1st and 2nd standard deviation ranges on top to identify probable support and resistance levels. I liked it because its was free and doing it myself removed the chance of possible "developer bias" injected into the charts :lol:
Ahh so you know it all too well. I realize the risk of developer bias here but I have found this study developer Conner Pollifrone to be a real straight shooter and very knowledgeable. I am finding his study to be a remarkably reliable indicator of momentum and trends. But that said. I agree "free" is good. Anyways, I will keep posting screenshots of the standard deviations here in this forum for the benefit of others if it can help them with their TSP Interfund transfers. I am happy to share...

wingchaser
Posts: 600
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

Lower Highs + Lower Lows are rarely indicative of a trend reversal…

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/25/stock-m ... -news.html

For a brief moment (this morning), I thought we were going to get a lil’ traction in a positive direction…

Next SUPPORT LEVEL appears to 3,250…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
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“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

jatelle
Posts: 50
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2015 1:36 pm

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by jatelle »

wingchaser wrote: Mon Sep 26, 2022 4:15 pm
Next SUPPORT LEVEL appears to 3,250…
Wingchaser, you're spot on. That Support Level aligns with where -2 standard deviation (green) is now. I would expect we will first see a pop up at the -1 deviation (orange) around 3,525. If the orange fails then yes it is flushing down to the green...sigh...
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wingchaser
Posts: 600
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

Interestin’ read(s)…

https://dailyreckoning.com/how-far-could-stocks-fall/
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/black-monday-20

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

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bloobs
Posts: 1403
Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 8:00 pm

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by bloobs »

jatelle wrote: Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:56 pm
wingchaser wrote: Mon Sep 26, 2022 4:15 pm Next SUPPORT LEVEL appears to 3,250…
Wingchaser, you're spot on. That Support Level aligns with where -2 standard deviation (green) is now. I would expect we will first see a pop up at the -1 deviation (orange) around 3,525. If the orange fails then yes it is flushing down to the green...sigh...
The volume profile chart below seems to add to both your cases, as to where the bulls/bears are placing their orders.

Image

jatelle
Posts: 50
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2015 1:36 pm

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by jatelle »

Thanks Bloobs for this volume profile chart. Very interesting!
Last edited by jatelle on Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:49 pm, edited 3 times in total.

jatelle
Posts: 50
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2015 1:36 pm

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by jatelle »

jatelle wrote: Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:04 pm
bloobs wrote: Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:56 pm
jatelle wrote: Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:56 pm
The volume profile chart below seems to add to both your cases, as to where the bulls/bears are placing their orders.

Image
Thanks Bloobs for this volume profile chart. Very interesting! It shows how traders are concentrating their orders at the Standard Deviations: At the +1 SD (4,300), and at the 0 Mean SD (3,900) and next at the -2 SD (3,250). I notice how there are fewer orders at the current price around the -1 SD of 3,500 to 3,600) suggesting the price is likely to skip down to the -2 SD pretty quickly.

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Fund Prices2022-09-29

FundPriceDayYTD
G $17.06 0.01% 1.94%
F $17.95 -0.49% -14.04%
C $55.61 -2.10% -22.71%
S $58.89 -2.31% -29.42%
I $28.80 -1.16% -26.98%
L2065 $11.18 -1.79% -24.91%
L2060 $11.18 -1.78% -24.90%
L2055 $11.18 -1.79% -24.89%
L2050 $23.56 -1.51% -21.54%
L2045 $10.90 -1.42% -20.29%
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