Just Like clockwork...

General TSP Discussion.

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jatelle
Posts: 50
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2015 1:36 pm

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by jatelle »

So this rally appears to have some legs but it has some resistance ahead. First SPY has to clear 407. If successful it will next try to clear 413/414 and then 421 (the high on Aug 26).

jatelle
Posts: 50
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2015 1:36 pm

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by jatelle »

So this mini rally appears to have some legs but it has some resistance ahead. First SPY has to clear 407 (above the high of Aug30). If successful, it will next try to clear both the 20 SMA and then the 200 SMA and then clear 421 (the high on Aug 26).

wingchaser
Posts: 600
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

GAP UP Candlestick is “needed” confirmation of continued short-term (upward) momentum…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
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“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

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bloobs
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Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by bloobs »

Wing, what's your target sell price?

wingchaser
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Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

bloobs wrote: Fri Sep 09, 2022 11:37 am Wing, what's your target sell price?
Bloobsmeister:

The Market dictates (both) the Entry Point & Exit Point. Recently, the Market has been moving UPWARD prior to the FOMC Mtgs. (next week)...

Even showing CONTINUATION after "consecutive" 75 Basis Point Rate Hike's, which we haven't seen since the 80's...

How that make's any sense, is for all to wonder!!!

https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/don%27t_ ... _the_mouth

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

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12squared
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Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by 12squared »

wingchaser wrote: Fri Sep 09, 2022 12:38 pm
bloobs wrote: Fri Sep 09, 2022 11:37 am Wing, what's your target sell price?
Bloobsmeister:

The Market dictates (both) the Entry Point & Exit Point. Recently, the Market has been moving UPWARD prior to the FOMC Mtgs. (next week)...

Even showing CONTINUATION after "consecutive" 75 Basis Point Rate Hike's, which we haven't seen since the 80's...

How that make's any sense, is for all to wonder!!!
The reality is that all one can do is furl and unfurl your IFT sail depending on the direction the market winds are blowing. Why it goes in one direction or the other doesn't really matter.
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend — not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter

"You'll have to adapt or you'll be out of style."
- Robert Smith

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bloobs
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Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by bloobs »

12squared wrote: Fri Sep 09, 2022 1:44 pm
wingchaser wrote: Fri Sep 09, 2022 12:38 pm
bloobs wrote: Fri Sep 09, 2022 11:37 am Wing, what's your target sell price?
Bloobsmeister:

The Market dictates (both) the Entry Point & Exit Point. Recently, the Market has been moving UPWARD prior to the FOMC Mtgs. (next week)...
The reality is that all one can do is furl and unfurl your IFT sail depending on the direction the market winds are blowing. Why it goes in one direction or the other doesn't really matter.
Wing/12^2
I guess what I meant to ask, in my simpleton novice trader mind, is assuming you both decided to buy into C/SPY at close today (market price), what then do you then set as your sell price (i.e. when it hits 2% above buy price etc.?) and what do you set as your sell stop limit price/percentage?

wingchaser
Posts: 600
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

bloobs wrote: Fri Sep 09, 2022 2:14 pm
12squared wrote: Fri Sep 09, 2022 1:44 pm
wingchaser wrote: Fri Sep 09, 2022 12:38 pm

Bloobsmeister:

The Market dictates (both) the Entry Point & Exit Point. Recently, the Market has been moving UPWARD prior to the FOMC Mtgs. (next week)...
The reality is that all one can do is furl and unfurl your IFT sail depending on the direction the market winds are blowing. Why it goes in one direction or the other doesn't really matter.
Wing/12^2
I guess what I meant to ask, in my simpleton novice trader mind, is assuming you both decided to buy into C/SPY at close today (market price), what then do you then set as your sell price (i.e. when it hits 2% above buy price etc.?) and what do you set as your sell stop limit price/percentage?
Bloobsie:

From my perspective, I will take only what the market will begrudgingly give. With this trade, I don't foresee holdin' after Friday (next week). Hopin' for 1-3% yield before market turns Negative (once again), though that may be too optimistic...

IMHO

Trailing Stop Losses (TSL) are almost impossible for our TSP Accounts, as we will always be reduced to an LAGGARD Approach (Next Day Trade).

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

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12squared
Posts: 497
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Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by 12squared »

wingchaser wrote: Fri Sep 09, 2022 2:55 pm
bloobs wrote: Fri Sep 09, 2022 2:14 pm
12squared wrote: Fri Sep 09, 2022 1:44 pm
The reality is that all one can do is furl and unfurl your IFT sail depending on the direction the market winds are blowing. Why it goes in one direction or the other doesn't really matter.
Wing/12^2
I guess what I meant to ask, in my simpleton novice trader mind, is assuming you both decided to buy into C/SPY at close today (market price), what then do you then set as your sell price (i.e. when it hits 2% above buy price etc.?) and what do you set as your sell stop limit price/percentage?
Bloobsie:

From my perspective, I will take only what the market will begrudgingly give. With this trade, I don't foresee holdin' after Friday (next week). Hopin' for 1-3% yield before market turns Negative (once again), though that may be too optimistic...

IMHO

Trailing Stop Losses (TSL) are almost impossible for our TSP Accounts, as we will always be reduced to an LAGGARD Approach (Next Day Trade).
Bloobs,
I prefer to look at rates of change instead of any absolute level, e.g. slope. Positive slope is an up trend, negative is downward. Slope of slope (aka acceleration or 2nd derivative) suggests that market "pull" has weakened or reversed. Sharp changes in MACD also suggest that a change in market direction is underway. However, the typical MACD parameters (12,26,9) tend to lag and smooth things out. I prefer (5,15,7).
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DW ... 8438407034

I am also using Parabolic SAR - again with non-standard parameters - and in conjunction with Bullish Percent indicators $BPSPX & $BPNYA which change less day to day than price.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BP ... 4290758311

12²
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend — not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter

"You'll have to adapt or you'll be out of style."
- Robert Smith

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bloobs
Posts: 1403
Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 8:00 pm

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by bloobs »

12squared wrote: Fri Sep 09, 2022 3:40 pm
wingchaser wrote: Fri Sep 09, 2022 2:55 pm
bloobs wrote: Fri Sep 09, 2022 2:14 pm

Wing/12^2
I guess what I meant to ask, in my simpleton novice trader mind, is assuming you both decided to buy into C/SPY at close today (market price), what then do you then set as your sell price (i.e. when it hits 2% above buy price etc.?) and what do you set as your sell stop limit price/percentage?
Bloobsie:

From my perspective, I will take only what the market will begrudgingly give. With this trade, I don't foresee holdin' after Friday (next week). Hopin' for 1-3% yield before market turns Negative (once again), though that may be too optimistic...

IMHO

Trailing Stop Losses (TSL) are almost impossible for our TSP Accounts, as we will always be reduced to an LAGGARD Approach (Next Day Trade).
Bloobs,
I prefer to look at rates of change instead of any absolute level, e.g. slope. Positive slope is an up trend, negative is downward. Slope of slope (aka acceleration or 2nd derivative) suggests that market "pull" has weakened or reversed. Sharp changes in MACD also suggest that a change in market direction is underway. However, the typical MACD parameters (12,26,9) tend to lag and smooth things out. I prefer (5,15,7).
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DW ... 8438407034

I am also using Parabolic SAR - again with non-standard parameters - and in conjunction with Bullish Percent indicators $BPSPX & $BPNYA which change less day to day than price.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BP ... 4290758311

12²
Thanks but my brain hurts from having to process all this info on a Friday night . I may stick to just investing instead of trading for now.

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bloobs
Posts: 1403
Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 8:00 pm

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by bloobs »

12squared wrote: Fri Sep 09, 2022 3:40 pm
wingchaser wrote: Fri Sep 09, 2022 2:55 pm
bloobs wrote: Fri Sep 09, 2022 2:14 pm

Wing/12^2
I guess what I meant to ask, in my simpleton novice trader mind, is assuming you both decided to buy into C/SPY at close today (market price), what then do you then set as your sell price (i.e. when it hits 2% above buy price etc.?) and what do you set as your sell stop limit price/percentage?
Bloobsie:

From my perspective, I will take only what the market will begrudgingly give. With this trade, I don't foresee holdin' after Friday (next week). Hopin' for 1-3% yield before market turns Negative (once again), though that may be too optimistic...

IMHO

Trailing Stop Losses (TSL) are almost impossible for our TSP Accounts, as we will always be reduced to an LAGGARD Approach (Next Day Trade).
Bloobs,
I prefer to look at rates of change instead of any absolute level, e.g. slope. Positive slope is an up trend, negative is downward. Slope of slope (aka acceleration or 2nd derivative) suggests that market "pull" has weakened or reversed. Sharp changes in MACD also suggest that a change in market direction is underway. However, the typical MACD parameters (12,26,9) tend to lag and smooth things out. I prefer (5,15,7).
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DW ... 8438407034

I am also using Parabolic SAR - again with non-standard parameters - and in conjunction with Bullish Percent indicators $BPSPX & $BPNYA which change less day to day than price.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BP ... 4290758311

12²
Thanks but my brain hurts from having to process all this info on a Friday night . I may stick to just investing instead of trading for now.

wingchaser
Posts: 600
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

Bloobs-one:

If you were to “trade”& wanted to mirror the S FUND (3x),

TNA - Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3X Shares

is a good option; up over 15% in the last five (5) days, TSL of 3% recommended…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

wingchaser
Posts: 600
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

Not the best lookin’ Candlestick (ever), but for now…

I’ll take it!!!

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/11/stock-f ... data-.html

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

wingchaser
Posts: 600
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

Ouch...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ify%20wall

UPDATE: Submitted my IFT (Back to G Fund), as it is my belief that Market will react (negatively) between now & next Wednesday, 20-Sep-22, when the FOMC meets…

Hope I’m wrong with that contention…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

harpole
Posts: 116
Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2017 9:25 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by harpole »

Definitely not what I expected today and CPI data doesn't appear to reflect what "I'm" seeing in real life.
Now the question is how much of this has been baked in since Powell's Jackson Hole speech?
Never underestimate the true intentions and overreach of the regime.
Less Government, More Freedom!

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Fund Prices2022-09-29

FundPriceDayYTD
G $17.06 0.01% 1.94%
F $17.95 -0.49% -14.04%
C $55.61 -2.10% -22.71%
S $58.89 -2.31% -29.42%
I $28.80 -1.16% -26.98%
L2065 $11.18 -1.79% -24.91%
L2060 $11.18 -1.78% -24.90%
L2055 $11.18 -1.79% -24.89%
L2050 $23.56 -1.51% -21.54%
L2045 $10.90 -1.42% -20.29%
L2040 $40.38 -1.33% -18.92%
L2035 $10.84 -1.23% -17.37%
L2030 $36.72 -1.12% -15.73%
L2025 $10.92 -0.77% -10.83%
Linc $22.13 -0.46% -5.77%

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