Just Like clockwork...

General TSP Discussion.

Moderator: Aitrus

wingchaser
Posts: 600
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

At the moment, I’m not alone with my overaction to the matter…

Back below the infamous 50-Day SMA!!!

The Over/Under for today's losses has been set @ -4%

UPDATE (1141 hrs.): Over/Under has been adjusted to -3.25%
I may be leanin' towards the OVER, as the West Coast has just awoken (in earnest) & Big Money, from their perspective, may make added difference (here)...

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Last edited by wingchaser on Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

jatelle
Posts: 50
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2015 1:36 pm

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by jatelle »

wingchaser wrote: Tue Sep 13, 2022 9:47 am At the moment, I’m not alone with my overaction to the matter…

Back below the infamous 50-Day SMA!!!

The Over/Under for today's losses has been set @ -4%
IMO inflation has been baked in. So I think this is a money grab by institutional investors. It crashes and takes your money when you sell for a loss and then it shoots back up when you have no more IFTs left. The S&P 500 is still holding above its 10 SMA and up about 2% from its Sept. 6 close and above its mid-June levels. I figure it has to at least retest the 50 SMA before I retreat to G.

wingchaser
Posts: 600
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

harpole wrote: Tue Sep 13, 2022 9:30 am Definitely not what I expected today and CPI data doesn't appear to reflect what "I'm" seeing in real life.
Now the question is how much of this has been baked in since Powell's Jackson Hole speech?
Interestin' read...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflatio ... 24877.html

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

md2018
Posts: 174
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2010 1:17 pm

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by md2018 »

jatelle wrote: Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:42 am
wingchaser wrote: Tue Sep 13, 2022 9:47 am At the moment, I’m not alone with my overaction to the matter…

Back below the infamous 50-Day SMA!!!

The Over/Under for today's losses has been set @ -4%
IMO inflation has been baked in. So I think this is a money grab by institutional investors. It crashes and takes your money when you sell for a loss and then it shoots back up when you have no more IFTs left. The S&P 500 is still holding above its 10 SMA and up about 2% from its Sept. 6 close and above its mid-June levels. I figure it has to at least retest the 50 SMA before I retreat to G.
“ So I think this is a money grab by institutional investors”.

Are you saying the market might be rigged?

md2018
Posts: 174
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2010 1:17 pm

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by md2018 »

“So I think this is a money grab by institutional investors.”
So are saying the market is rigged?
Last edited by md2018 on Wed Sep 14, 2022 8:24 am, edited 1 time in total.

wingchaser
Posts: 600
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

Been some time since I’ve seen a decline depicted with a W%R angle almost 180 degrees…

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/09/12/sto ... port-.html

FULL BODY CANDLESTICK tells the whole story (here)…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

jatelle
Posts: 50
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2015 1:36 pm

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by jatelle »

md2018 wrote: Tue Sep 13, 2022 3:21 pm
jatelle wrote: Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:42 am
wingchaser wrote: Tue Sep 13, 2022 9:47 am At the moment, I’m not alone with my overaction to the matter…

Back below the infamous 50-Day SMA!!!

The Over/Under for today's losses has been set @ -4%
IMO inflation has been baked in. So I think this is a money grab by institutional investors. It crashes and takes your money when you sell for a loss and then it shoots back up when you have no more IFTs left. The S&P 500 is still holding above its 10 SMA and up about 2% from its Sept. 6 close and above its mid-June levels. I figure it has to at least retest the 50 SMA before I retreat to G.
“ So I think this is a money grab by institutional investors”.

Are you saying the market might be rigged?
The Institutional money is the Computer algorithms (ALGOs) that run the market. They kicked on at 08:30 at the moment of the CPI announcement and instantly ran this market down. There was nothing alarming about the inflation figures: The actual was a mere 0.3% above the estimated. But the ALGOs sounded the ALARM and triggered a mass computerized sell off. Today was a classic "Long Squeeze" triggered by the ALGOs. Look at 1 min chart at 8:30. In just 60 short seconds the S&P plunged a whopping 2.85% in pre-market. (I don't recall ever seeing anything like it so fast). Only an algo could do this so uniformly and instantaneously with that level of selling volume in pre-market. This fast and furious sell off triggered many other stop order losses and accelerated the decline of the market. This was a manufactured sell off before the opening of the regular market for most investors. The fix was in.
Last edited by jatelle on Tue Sep 13, 2022 6:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.

wingchaser
Posts: 600
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

jatelle wrote: Tue Sep 13, 2022 5:41 pm
The Institutional money is the Computer algorithms (ALGOs) that run the market. They kicked on at 08:30 at the moment of the CPI announcement and instantly ran this market down. There was nothing alarming about the inflation figures: The actual was a mere 0.3% above the estimated. But the ALGOs sounded the ALARM and triggered a mass computerized sell off. Today was a classic "Long Squeeze" triggered by the ALGOs. Look at 1 min chart at 8:30. In just 60 short seconds the S&P plunged a whopping 2.85% in pre-market. (I don't recall ever seeing anything like it so fast). Only an algo could do this so uniformly and instantaneously with that level of selling volume in pre-market. This fast and furious sell off triggered many other stop order losses and accelerated the decline of the market. The fix was in.
Nice analysis, Jatelle…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

jatelle
Posts: 50
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2015 1:36 pm

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by jatelle »

wingchaser wrote: Tue Sep 13, 2022 6:05 pm
jatelle wrote: Tue Sep 13, 2022 5:41 pm
The Institutional money is the Computer algorithms (ALGOs) that run the market. They kicked on at 08:30 at the moment of the CPI announcement and instantly ran this market down. There was nothing alarming about the inflation figures: The actual was a mere 0.3% above the estimated. But the ALGOs sounded the ALARM and triggered a mass computerized sell off. Today was a classic "Long Squeeze" triggered by the ALGOs. Look at 1 min chart at 8:30. In just 60 short seconds the S&P plunged a whopping 2.85% in pre-market. (I don't recall ever seeing anything like it so fast). Only an algo could do this so uniformly and instantaneously with that level of selling volume in pre-market. This fast and furious sell off triggered many other stop order losses and accelerated the decline of the market. The fix was in.
Nice analysis, Jatelle…
Thanks Wingchaser. I appreciate reading your regular insights and charts. So what do you think happens next? I am expecting it to rebound tomorrow in session. I am just hoping it will retest the 50 SMA tomorrow. At the very least tests the close of Sept8 (400)? If it holds I will stay in, otherwise I am getting out. Thoughts?

wingchaser
Posts: 600
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

jatelle wrote: Tue Sep 13, 2022 6:47 pm
Thanks Wingchaser. I appreciate reading your regular insights and charts. So what do you think happens next? I am expecting it to rebound tomorrow in session. I am just hoping it will retest the 50 SMA tomorrow. At the very least tests the close of Sept8 (400)? If it holds I will stay in, otherwise I am getting out. Thoughts?
In days of old, markets would rebound (almost immediately) as Bargain Hunters & Heavy Hitters would willingly step in…

Recently, however, momentum has a tendency to carry itself over a period of time (a week or more) before reversing…

The bad thing (here) is there might be no other catalyst prior to 20-Sep (FOMC Mtg), leavin’ Investors to wallow in conjecture …

Either way, I wanted no part of it. Real money needs more assurance (if such a thing exists anymore). There’ll come a point, I’m thinking mid-year ((2023), where the Fed will begin easing. Then, we can safely see 10-20% YTD returns once again…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

jatelle
Posts: 50
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2015 1:36 pm

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by jatelle »

wingchaser wrote: Tue Sep 13, 2022 8:00 pm
jatelle wrote: Tue Sep 13, 2022 6:47 pm
Thanks Wingchaser. I appreciate reading your regular insights and charts. So what do you think happens next? I am expecting it to rebound tomorrow in session. I am just hoping it will retest the 50 SMA tomorrow. At the very least tests the close of Sept8 (400)? If it holds I will stay in, otherwise I am getting out. Thoughts?
In days of old, markets would rebound (almost immediately) as Bargain Hunters & Heavy Hitters would willingly step in…

Recently, however, momentum has a tendency to carry itself over a period of time (a week or more) before reversing…

The bad thing (here) is there might be no other catalyst prior to 20-Sep (FOMC Mtg), leavin’ Investors to wallow in conjecture …

Either way, I wanted no part of it. Real money needs more assurance (if such a thing exists anymore). There’ll come a point, I’m thinking mid-year ((2023), where the Fed will begin easing. Then, we can safely see 10-20% YTD returns once again…
Well noted. Wing, I know you have good technical knowledge on charts and studies. So I have a chart here that I would like your take. Do you think that we could be in a Bullish Continuation Trend (hidden bullish divergence) with a higher low in price, but a lower high in RSI (compare dotted yellow lines)?
https://www.investopedia.com/trading/co ... roduction/

The reason I ask, is I don't see hidden divergence very often and last time I saw it was on the breakout on June 22. See chart. Also on the breakout on July 18.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.

jatelle
Posts: 50
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2015 1:36 pm

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by jatelle »

I was hoping for a bounce today (with hidden divergence) but it appears not to be. Moving back to G.

wingchaser
Posts: 600
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

The Candlestick Pattern (here), HARAMI CROSS

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/haramicross.asp

is (oftentimes) indicative of a trend reversal…

But that is in ordinary time(s) & this market is anything but ordinary…

The Lower Low could prove problematic!!!

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

jatelle
Posts: 50
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2015 1:36 pm

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by jatelle »

BATTLE of BULLS VS BEARS

S&P: The Bulls had the upper hand with the Bullish Hidden Divergence (opposing yellow dotted lines on the lows - Price has a lower low while RSI has a higher low). But then the Bears pushed back after noon seen by the Bearish Hidden Divergence (opposing yellow dotted lines on the highs - Price has a lower high while RSI has a higher high)

Who will win is anyone's guess?
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.

User avatar
12squared
Posts: 497
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2015 7:28 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by 12squared »

jatelle wrote: Wed Sep 14, 2022 12:11 pm I was hoping for a bounce today (with hidden divergence) but it appears not to be. Moving back to G.
Jatelle,
'Back' to G??? Looks like you've been sitting there since May 2020.

You seem to have good insight into the markets. How about resetting your account and playing the 'game' (as Cron calls it) with the rest of us?
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend — not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter

"You'll have to adapt or you'll be out of style."
- Robert Smith

Post Reply

Fund Prices2022-09-29

FundPriceDayYTD
G $17.06 0.01% 1.94%
F $17.95 -0.49% -14.04%
C $55.61 -2.10% -22.71%
S $58.89 -2.31% -29.42%
I $28.80 -1.16% -26.98%
L2065 $11.18 -1.79% -24.91%
L2060 $11.18 -1.78% -24.90%
L2055 $11.18 -1.79% -24.89%
L2050 $23.56 -1.51% -21.54%
L2045 $10.90 -1.42% -20.29%
L2040 $40.38 -1.33% -18.92%
L2035 $10.84 -1.23% -17.37%
L2030 $36.72 -1.12% -15.73%
L2025 $10.92 -0.77% -10.83%
Linc $22.13 -0.46% -5.77%

Live Charts

Pending Allocations

Under development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".