Just Like clockwork...

General TSP Discussion.

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wingchaser
Posts: 790
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

Interestin’ read…

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-pops ... 11886.html

This bodes well for

NRGU - MicroSectors U.S. Big Oil Index 3X Leveraged ETNs

Which is UP 13.57% (today) & makes for a perfect hedge in (either) your Brokerage or ROTH IRA accounts…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

wingchaser
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Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

Would love to get back into the market (FOMO?), though Overbought nature of recent run is actin’ as a deterrent…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by Tomanyiron »

I can't help but to think todays fits and starts is all about the indictment this morning.
Speaking of "fits", the process should be quick as long he doesn't insult the judge, or prosecutors.
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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12squared
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Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by 12squared »

Tomanyiron wrote: Mon Apr 03, 2023 11:34 am I can't help but to think todays fits and starts is all about the indictment this morning.
Speaking of "fits", the process should be quick as long he doesn't insult the judge, or prosecutors.
More likely it is due to something that affect profits – like the rising price of oil.
Oil prices soar after OPEC+ announces production cuts
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend – not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter

"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie

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bloobs
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Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by bloobs »

12squared wrote: Mon Apr 03, 2023 12:00 pm
Tomanyiron wrote: Mon Apr 03, 2023 11:34 am I can't help but to think todays fits and starts is all about the indictment this morning.
Speaking of "fits", the process should be quick as long he doesn't insult the judge, or prosecutors.
More likely it is due to something that affect profits – like the rising price of oil.
Oil prices soar after OPEC+ announces production cuts
1. Indictment as a cause is unlikely since Wall Street only cares about relevant factors.
2. Rising price of oil...possibly but only in the context of....
3. ...the market powers-that-be saw that their news-induced FOMO campaign from the past few weeks has already suckered in most of their victims--so it's time to time to reverse the narrative the other way for the ride down (to make more money of course.) We should all know by now Wall Street plays BOTH sides of the game--that's how they always win.

wingchaser
Posts: 790
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

Love the break-out from recent Consolidation pattern…

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/12/stock-m ... dates.html

Time to get back in? Just maybe…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
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“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

jatelle
Posts: 229
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2015 1:36 pm

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by jatelle »

Hey, Wingchaser. I am just back from Spring Break. I am thinking about going in as well as it would appear there is still a few % gains to the upside for April. But I am expecting a pullback in May so I think I will sit on my hands for now.

wingchaser
Posts: 790
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

Great (recent) run for the S&P, while S Fund caught in consolidation pattern…

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/16/stock-f ... dates.html

Show me some green in the morning & make me want to commit!!!

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
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“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

wingchaser
Posts: 790
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

Eyeballin’ SOXL - Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares (currently UP +2.50% Premarket) as possible market positionin’ (ROTH IRA)…

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-QvZ-HpaJNY

Entry point will be on a PULLBACK, 5-digit maximum exposure is recommended (here)…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

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bamafamily
Posts: 141
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:18 pm

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by bamafamily »

Did you pull the trigger? I was looking at it.....but never did
wingchaser wrote: Tue Apr 18, 2023 9:28 am Eyeballin’ SOXL - Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares (currently UP +2.50% Premarket) as possible market positionin’ (ROTH IRA)…

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-QvZ-HpaJNY

Entry point will be on a PULLBACK, 5-digit maximum exposure is recommended (here)…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
Bama

jatelle
Posts: 229
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2015 1:36 pm

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by jatelle »

jatelle wrote: Fri Apr 14, 2023 9:21 pm I am expecting a pullback in May so I think I will sit on my hands for now.
So the markets persuaded me and I decided to go back in yesterday before noon. So let's see what the rest of April can bring. Best of luck in investing everyone!

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bamafamily
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Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:18 pm

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by bamafamily »

Good Morning All,
Thought I would try and contribute a bit......
I nominally just use the slope of an optimized HULL MA to detect turns in the 4 TSP funds.
I have since incorporated a 6 month Normalized MACD (12,26,5) to see exactly where the fund is on a normalized -100 to 100 scale.....As you can see, $DWCPF recently turned and also has the lower normalized MACD..... I am thinking about jumping back in today.....just not sure if all 'S' or a ratio of S,C,I (F trying to turn down today)
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Bama

jatelle
Posts: 229
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2015 1:36 pm

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by jatelle »

bamafamily wrote: Wed Apr 19, 2023 10:59 am Good Morning All,
Thought I would try and contribute a bit......
I nominally just use the slope of an optimized HULL MA to detect turns in the 4 TSP funds.
I have since incorporated a 6 month Normalized MACD (12,26,5) to see exactly where the fund is on a normalized -100 to 100 scale.....As you can see, $DWCPF recently turned and also has the lower normalized MACD..... I am thinking about jumping back in today.....just not sure if all 'S' or a ratio of S,C,I (F trying to turn down today)
Bama thanks for sharing your charts. Very helpful! The S fund (IWM) chart structure is setting up to retest previous highs. The price is coming up on the Value Area Low (lower soft yellow line) on the Volume Profile. The Value Area between the yellow lines is where 70% or trading volume historically occurs and is the highest area of interest for investors and attracts big investors hence establishing value. One of the main rules in volume profile logic is called the “80% rule”. This rule states that once price enters inside one end (top or bottom) of the value area then price has a very high probability chance to rotate back towards the other end of value (from yellow line to yellow line). Also, just overhead are the 3 major moving averages: 200 SMA (blue line) and 100 SMA (green line) and the 50 SMA (yellow line). If price can hold above these lines then we have a bonafide rally.
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bamafamily
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Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by bamafamily »

Thanks for the insight Jatelle!
Bama

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bloobs
Posts: 1545
Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 8:00 pm

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by bloobs »

TECHNICALS
1. Good news: C and S closed above their respective POCs (most traded levels) on the Volume Profile charts (C for the past two weeks).
2 Bad news: IWM closed just beneath its. So close, but leaves the door open for the bears in the coming weeks.

FUNDAMENTALS
1. Still sh*t, will remain sh*t for the foreseeable future.

Silver lining:
1. It is a traders market, so TA rules.

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Fund Prices2023-05-26

FundPriceDayYTD
G $17.50 0.01% 1.54%
F $18.47 0.07% 1.46%
C $64.96 1.31% 10.27%
S $64.41 1.47% 4.69%
I $37.17 0.96% 9.52%
L2065 $13.39 1.20% 9.24%
L2060 $13.39 1.20% 9.24%
L2055 $13.40 1.20% 9.24%
L2050 $27.52 1.00% 7.91%
L2045 $12.64 0.94% 7.53%
L2040 $46.48 0.88% 7.15%
L2035 $12.37 0.81% 6.71%
L2030 $41.52 0.74% 6.26%
L2025 $11.94 0.46% 4.56%
Linc $23.65 0.31% 3.48%

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