Just Like clockwork...

[12squared]

Markets were up Thursday, but intermediate (IT) breadth momentum was down. The divergence looks similar to the 2nd week of February.

NYSE breadth 28Dec22-27Apr23++.png

I note that the zero crossings of the SLOPE(5) of this barometer would have been good entry/exit points – a lesson learned for my next IFT. I bowed out a little too late this time, and too early in the last cycle.

[12squared]

I stopped updating my Fantasy game and don't tell people which strategy I follow. It made me really uncomfortable to know that people were blindly following my advice in their retirement decisions without understanding what they were doing or why my advice was what it was.

I'm not Jim Cramer or Altrus famous, but I think about that also. I often wonder how many times, I was cursed at, because of money lost due to my charts or indexes.

I think everyone completely understands you are one average person that has the guts to show what you are doing. I have been helped so many times watching others move among the funds. I can't THANK YOU BOTH enough and all the others that actively participate here. I have watched long enough that I choose those I want to watch and take everyone as a group. I miss the old web site; it seems we have lost lots of participation with the active FB group. BUT on FB no one really knows whether someone is full of hot air or is knowledgeable. It requires too much effort to evaluate. On here, the courageous post, and then have their fantasy to back them up. 2022 was a killer. Thanks to each of you courageous investors. It have been sooo helpful to me. I can see "what If I had". NEVER, NEVER, should you feel guilty for losses of others because few will give you credit for their gains. Please dont quit.

It takes the effort of many to advance the ball. However, it's easier to reveal your cards when your system is doing well.
Aitrus led the way years ago musing about monthly moves. Matt took that to a new level developing the tools of TSPcalc. Tomany has explored a variety of uncommon indicators. Over the course of several years I have been a student of each.

Kudos to you all.

[bamafamily]

Markets were up Thursday, but intermediate (IT) breadth momentum was down. The divergence looks similar to the 2nd week of February.

I note that the zero crossings of the SLOPE(5) of this barometer would have been good entry/exit points – a lesson learned for my next IFT. I bowed out a little too late this time, and too early in the last cycle.

Interesting about the Slope(5) xover. Have you checked it against the equity itself in addition to the Breadth?
Thanks again for another possible methodology to go along with others in your toolbox..

Bama

[12squared]

Markets were up Thursday, but intermediate (IT) breadth momentum was down. The divergence looks similar to the 2nd week of February.

I note that the zero crossings of the SLOPE(5) of this barometer would have been good entry/exit points – a lesson learned for my next IFT. I bowed out a little too late this time, and too early in the last cycle.

Interesting about the Slope(5) xover. Have you checked it against the equity itself in addition to the Breadth?
Thanks again for another possible methodology to go along with others in your toolbox..

SLOPE(N) is my favorite rate of change indicator on StockCharts, although the value of N is not universal. Prices change enough day to day that SLOPE is not usually a reliable indicator for N<10 – too many false crossings. However, with larger N usually comes longer lag.

SPX 28Dec22-27Apr23+.png

TRIX seems to handle fluctuations better, but cannot be used on a metric that can be negative, e.g. NYSE IT momentum breadth.

[jatelle]

Markets were up Thursday, but intermediate (IT) breadth momentum was down. The divergence looks similar to the 2nd week of February.
NYSE breadth 28Dec22-27Apr23++.png

I note that the zero crossings of the SLOPE(5) of this barometer would have been good entry/exit points – a lesson learned for my next IFT. I bowed out a little too late this time, and too early in the last cycle.

Great charts 12squared! Agreed this week's pullback is very similar to the 2nd week of February - with one exception: the VIX. The February 9-10 pullback broke through the 20 Support/Resistance line whereas this time on April 25-26 the line held. I see this as market confidence now to overtake the Feb 2 high and retest the Aug 16th high of 421.

[jimcasada]

....I miss the old web site; it seems we have lost lots of participation with the active FB group. BUT on FB no one really knows whether someone is full of hot air or is knowledgeable.....

What FB group are you referring to? I just did a search for "TSP" and I was really surprised that there are so many groups there on FB.

[12squared]

Markets were up Thursday, but intermediate (IT) breadth momentum was down. The divergence looks similar to the 2nd week of February.
NYSE breadth 28Dec22-27Apr23++.png

I note that the zero crossings of the SLOPE(5) of this barometer would have been good entry/exit points – a lesson learned for my next IFT. I bowed out a little too late this time, and too early in the last cycle.

Great charts 12squared! Agreed this week's pullback is very similar to the 2nd week of February - with one exception: the VIX. The February 9-10 pullback broke through the 20 Support/Resistance line whereas this time on April 25-26 the line held. I see this as market confidence now to overtake the Feb 2 high and retest the Aug 16th high of 421.

The VIX is highly correlated with the reciprocal of the SPX ($ONE:$SPX) over the short term. It's difficult to tell who leads who in the price-option partnership.

VIX 28Dec22-27Apr23.png

Prior to today's open both $SPX and $VIX appeared to have reversed course. Also, bonds have been up since the open, and have tracked counter to equities of late. Today might be an end of month two-step.

[jatelle]

Strong bullish momentum today for both the S and C Funds with the S&P (C Fund) surpassing its previous high of April 18th. Next target for S&P is the Feb 2 high (418.31). The VIX fear index closed today at 16 the lowest since Jan 4, 2022.

[tnwhiskey]

Strong bullish momentum today for both the S and C Funds with the S&P (C Fund) surpassing its previous high of April 18th. Next target for S&P is the Feb 2 high (418.31). The VIX fear index closed today at 16 the lowest since Jan 4, 2022.

VIX being so low appears to line up with the Sell in May... I imagine roller coaster days are ahead.

[jatelle]

Strong bullish momentum today for both the S and C Funds with the S&P (C Fund) surpassing its previous high of April 18th. Next target for S&P is the Feb 2 high (418.31). The VIX fear index closed today at 16 the lowest since Jan 4, 2022.

VIX being so low appears to line up with the Sell in May... I imagine roller coaster days are ahead.

Historically sell sometime in May is a quality seasonal strategy. I think we are going to see new highs in the near future after which I would expect a consolidation.

[wingchaser]

Historically sell sometime in May is a quality seasonal strategy. I think we are going to see new highs in the near future after which I would expect a consolidation.

Historically, not too many instances where the Market may be comin’ off such aggressive tightening, loosening, then reaction(s) to the aftermath of such posturin’…

Seasonal’s can’t be compared to anything even close!!!

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!

[wingchaser]

Interestin’ read…

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-ma ... 59531.html

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!

[wingchaser]

Nasty lookin’ candlestick going into Fed mtg…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!

[wingchaser]

Interestin’ read…

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-set- ... 14243.html

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!

[wingchaser]

Interestin’ read…

https://www.theverge.com/2023/5/1/23706 ... s-warnings

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!