Just Like clockwork...

[harpole]

Interestin’ read…

https://www.theverge.com/2023/5/1/23706 ... s-warnings

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!

Terminator movies come to mind... "I'll be back"..

[wingchaser]

Chairman Powell (not a Dictator from a 3rd World Nation) is speakin’ & the whole world is listenin’…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!

[Tomanyiron]

[bizkikr]

I'm not Jim Cramer or Altrus famous, but I think about that also. I often wonder how many times, I was cursed at, because of money lost due to my charts or indexes.

I think everyone completely understands you are one average person that has the guts to show what you are doing. I have been helped so many times watching others move among the funds. I can't THANK YOU BOTH enough and all the others that actively participate here. I have watched long enough that I choose those I want to watch and take everyone as a group. I miss the old web site; it seems we have lost lots of participation with the active FB group. BUT on FB no one really knows whether someone is full of hot air or is knowledgeable. It requires too much effort to evaluate. On here, the courageous post, and then have their fantasy to back them up. 2022 was a killer. Thanks to each of you courageous investors. It have been sooo helpful to me. I can see "what If I had". NEVER, NEVER, should you feel guilty for losses of others because few will give you credit for their gains. Please dont quit.

It takes the effort of many to advance the ball. However, it's easier to reveal your cards when your system is doing well.
Aitrus led the way years ago musing about monthly moves. Matt took that to a new level developing the tools of TSPcalc. Tomany has explored a variety of uncommon indicators. Over the course of several years I have been a student of each.

Kudos to you all.

The work done on this platform strongly indicates much effort applied in finding a best approach. However, to those engaged with such actions, have you compared yourself to simply investing in the C funds over the years and been able to successfully beat the 'in-kind' Buffet challenge? Just curious if all the effort has had a measurable impact in your own portfolios.

[Aitrus]

The work done on this platform strongly indicates much effort applied in finding a best approach. However, to those engaged with such actions, have you compared yourself to simply investing in the C funds over the years and been able to successfully beat the 'in-kind' Buffet challenge? Just curious if all the effort has had a measurable impact in your own portfolios.

That's a great question. I sometimes go back and compare the numbers just to see how far things have come.

I posted my original Seasonal Musings ideas in 2014. Here's how those ideas have performed from 2014 - 2022:

C Fund: Mean 11.66%, CAGR 10.56%, PNR 7 of 9 years had positive returns, and Std Dev of 15.21
S Fund: Mean 8.47%, CAGR 6.93%, PNR 6 of 9, and Sted Dev of 17.48
Jahbulon's Basic Mix: Mean 12.93%, CAGR 12.16%, PNR 7 of 9, and Std Dev of 12.43
TSPCenter's Calculator Mix: Mean 6.69%, CAGR 5.93%, PNR 6 of 9, and Std Dev of 12.53

And here's the 2014 - 2022 results for a couple of the more popular Strategies that were developed in the early days of TSPCalc. As I recall, TSPCalc went online in 2018 or therabouts:

57117: Mean 23.93%, CAGR 22.75%, PNR 8 of 9, and Std Dev of 16.15
85660: Mean 23.43%, CAGR 22.43%, PNR 8 of 9, and Std Dev of 14.56

Here's how all of the above are doing so far in 2023:
C Fund YTD: 7.1%
S Fund: 1.75%
Jahbulon's Basic: 4.91%
TSPCenter: 6.95%
57117: 11.89%
85660: 14.58%

Keep in mind something else: while the C and S Funds are exposed to the market 100% of the time, all of the others are less so.

Jahbulon: invested in C, S or I 66.39% of the time, remainder in G or F
TSPCenter: 41.87%
57117: 46.71%
85660: 56.23%

A lot of buy-and-holders like to point out that timing the market can mean missing the top 10 earning days each year, so you have to be invested all the time so as not to miss them. What they fail to realize is that by being invested all the time, they are also getting the worst 10 earning days each year too. Seasonal investing applies a data-focused examination of when positive days / weeks / months tend to occur and trying to be in the market at those times, and the opposite for the worst days.

Source for all the above numbers:
https://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=571 ... ears=14-22

[bloobs]

That's a great question. I sometimes go back and compare the numbers just to see how far things have come.

I posted my original Seasonal Musings ideas in 2014. Here's how those ideas have performed from 2014 - 2022:

IMHO what would you awesome insight is if we could post stats on how many users are beating C, S, I buy and hold strategies with their selective seasonals.

Something like: X number or Y percent of TSPCenter users following seasonals are performing above/below/matching the present YTD returns for C or S or I funds. Perhaps even show it within 1st and 2nd std deviations of the YTD returns.

Pretty quantifiable metrics to prove which approach is "better".

The problem is that only MJ has the dataset we need to come with these stats.

[wingchaser]

We had a Challenge a few years’ back, Timer’s left the Seasonal’s in the dust…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!

[bloobs]

Wing, i havent seen your Derexion 3x ETF posts recently. Is it too screwy to be trading those right now?

[wingchaser]

Wing, i havent seen your Derexion 3x ETF posts recently. Is it too screwy to be trading those right now?

BLOOBS:

I’ll try to target a “pullback” today w/strong volume (Momentum Trade). Work & all these System Migrations are taking a lot of my time & focus. Meetings, meetings & more meetings!!!

Yes, work is gettin’ in the way of my trading AND THAT’S A GOOD THING!!!

[wingchaser]

Wing, i havent seen your Derexion 3x ETF posts recently. Is it too screwy to be trading those right now?

Would love to be in UVXY - ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term ETF (early), if a Debt Ceiling mandate (1-Jun) is missed & snag 30-40% ROI…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!P

[wingchaser]

FSELX - Fidelity Select Semiconductors Portfolio Is UP almost 30% YTD, could it garner another 30-40% before years’ end?

Easily!!!

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!

[wingchaser]

Investment Group; lending (added) insight into your trading strategies…

https://www.meetup.com/dctraders/events/shrrksyfchbvb/

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!

[wingchaser]

Wing, i havent seen your Derexion 3x ETF posts recently. Is it too screwy to be trading those right now?

BLOOBS:

I’ll try to target a “pullback” today w/strong volume (Momentum Trade). Work & all these System Migrations are taking a lot of my time & focus. Meetings, meetings & more meetings!!!

Yes, work is gettin’ in the way of my trading AND THAT’S A GOOD THING!!!

SOXL - Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares Looks good on a PULLBACK, though I’m not truly convinced the market wants to go HIGHER…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!

[wingchaser]

Wing, i havent seen your Derexion 3x ETF posts recently. Is it too screwy to be trading those right now?

BLOOBS:

I’ll try to target a “pullback” today w/strong volume (Momentum Trade). Work & all these System Migrations are taking a lot of my time & focus. Meetings, meetings & more meetings!!!

Yes, work is gettin’ in the way of my trading AND THAT’S A GOOD THING!!!

SOXL - Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares Looks good on a PULLBACK, though I’m not truly convinced the market wants to go HIGHER…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!

A Contrarian move could be LABD - Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares, up over 3% (today) already…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!

[wingchaser]

Wing, i havent seen your Derexion 3x ETF posts recently. Is it too screwy to be trading those right now?

BLOOBS:

I’ll try to target a “pullback” today w/strong volume (Momentum Trade). Work & all these System Migrations are taking a lot of my time & focus. Meetings, meetings & more meetings!!!

Yes, work is gettin’ in the way of my trading AND THAT’S A GOOD THING!!!

SOXL - Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares Looks good on a PULLBACK, though I’m not truly convinced the market wants to go HIGHER…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!

Long Lower Candlesticks depicted Upsurge if you were watchin’ closely…

Which I wasn’t!!!

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!